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华夏幸福债务违约案例分析
摘要
房地产行业的发展时刻关系着我国经济的发展，近些来房地产行业的发展十分迅
猛，融资方式多种多样，大量举债快速扩张。然而， 2020年初突发的新冠疫情对我
国宏观经济产生了巨大的影响，加之我国出台了一系列房地产调控政策，房地产企业
融资更加困难的同时行业竞争愈加激烈。面对不断攀升的资金压力，很多房地产企业
资金链断裂，出现债务违约。
华夏幸福曾经雄踞在中国销售榜前十，并且其产业新城模式独具特色，为公司带
来巨额收益，促进公司的经营发展。然而华夏幸福在 2021年初爆发了债务违约，并
且债务规模不断攀升，引起社会的广泛关注。本文将华夏幸福作为案例对象，通过多
角度分析其债务违约的原因，希望为其后续的经营发展提出一些针对性的意见，同时
给房地产其他企业的债务违约防范带来一定的启示。
本文首先对案例情况进行了介绍，具体包括公司基本情况、债务情况以及债务违
约过程的回顾；接着运用 F分数模型衡量其债务违约的风险，判断公司在哪个阶段出
现违约倾向，发现华夏幸福的财务风险很不稳定，并且逐渐加大；然后从宏观经济环
境、行业发展、内部环境三个角度对华夏幸福的债务违约原因进行了分析。通过分析
可知，在宏观经济下行叠加疫情影响、房地产融资调控趋紧、房地产市场低迷的大背
景下，华夏幸福融资压力加大，内部存在许多问题，具体包括债务结构严重失衡、融
资成本不断上升并且存在期限错配的现象；产业新城这种模式使公司房地产项目的回
报周期加长、加剧了应收账款风险；在与中国平安签订对赌协议后，异地扩张之路过
于激进、现金流状况恶化导致资金链断裂，最终引爆债务违约。最后根据成因分析得
出相关结论，对华夏幸福的后续经营管理提出相关建议，并给房地产其他企业的债务
违约防范提供借鉴，包括积极适应外部环境变化、放缓企业扩张速度、提升资产质量。
关键词：房地产企业；产业新城模式；债务违约
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华夏幸福债务违约案例分析
ABSTRACT
The development of the real estate industry is always related to the development of
China's economy. Recently, the development of the real estate industry has been very rapid.
There are various financing methods and a large amount of debt to expand rapidly.
However, the outbreak of the new crown epidemic in early 2020 has had a huge impact on
China's macro economy. In addition, China has introduced a series of real estate control
policies. Real estate companies have more difficulties in financing and more fierce
competition in the industry. Faced with the rising financial pressure, many real estate
companies broke their capital chains and defaulted on their debts.
CFLD once ranked in the top ten in China's sales list, and its industrial new city
model is unique, bringing huge profits to the company and promoting the company's
business development. However, China Fortune Land Development's debt default broke
out in early 2021, and the scale of debt continued to rise, causing widespread concern in
the society. This paper takes China Fortune Land Development Co., Ltd. as the case object,
analyzes the reasons for its debt default from multiple perspectives, and hopes to put
forward some targeted opinions for its follow-up business development, and at the same
time, it will bring some enlightenment to the prevention of debt default of other real estate
companies.
The paper begins with an introduction to the case, including a review of the
company's basic situation, the debt situation and the debt default process；The F-score
model was then applied to measure the risk of default on its debt to determine at which
stage the company was prone to default and it was found that CFLD's financial risk was
volatile and gradually increasing. The reasons for CFLD's debt default were analysed from
three perspectives: macroeconomic environment, industry development and internal
environment. From the analysis, it can be seen that against the backdrop of the
macroeconomic downturn, the impact of the epidemic, the tightening of real estate
financing regulation and the downturn in the real estate market, CFLD has increased its
financing pressure and has many internal problems. Firstly, CFLD has a seriously
unbalanced debt structure, rising financing costs and a maturity mismatch. Secondly, the
model of industrial new towns lengthens the payback period of the company's real estate
projects and increases the risk of accounts receivable. After signing a betting agreement
with Ping An of China, CFLD's off-site expansion path was too aggressive and its cash
I
。。。以下略