由于全球经济的快速融合发展，可想而知，高新技术产业的市场竞争强度会加大， 技术创新不仅能够取得高收益，同样也伴随着高风险。而对于高新技术企业正在遭受的 风险问题，国内的学者已经开始高度重视这个问题，并得出了一些相关理论研究。高新 技术型企业既要面对急剧变化又极其复杂的外部环境，又要解决技术创新难度造成的成 功率低的内部困境。随着科技市场竞争程度的加剧，高新技术型企业技术创新的风险问 题也日益成为管理者们亟待解决的难题，如何识别、衡量、处理技术创新过程中伴随的 高风险，分析技术创新风险的影响因素，完善技术创新风险的控制体系及预警机制，已 成为众多高新技术型企业面临的紧迫难题，相关企业及部门应当给予充分的重视。因此， 构建高新技术型企业技术创新风险控制体系是解决其高风险难题的关键途径。 本研究基于风险管理理论，以高新技术型企业J公司为研究对象，结合技术创新理 论，运用专家打分法、层次分析法（AHP）和模糊综合评价法，分析了技术创新可能存 在的41个风险指标，构建了三个步骤（识别、衡量、处理），七个方面技术创新风险控 制体系，结合J公司的技术创新的实际状况来展开研究。最终得出以下结论： （1）通过风险识别发现，J公司在技术创新时，市场、环境、管理方面存在风险较 高，而在人资、技术、财务、生产方面风险较小。 （2）通过风险衡量发现，J公司在技术创新时，总体风险等级为一般风险。其中环 境风险等级较高，其他方面风险等级一般。 （3）根据J公司技术创新风险识别与衡量的结果，对于市场、财务、管理方面风 险等级一般的采取风险控制或风险转移策略，而对于环境方面风险等级较高的采取风险 规避策略。 关键词：技术创新；风险识别；风险衡量；风险处理 Abstract Duetotherapidintegrationanddevelopmentoftheglobaleconomy,itisconceivable thatthemarketcompetitionintensityofhigh-techindustrieswillincrease,andtechnological innovationwillnotonlyachievehighreturns,butalsowithhighrisks.Asfortherisksthat high-techenterprisesaresuffering,domesticscholarshavebeguntoattachgreatimportance tothisissueandhavedrawnsomerelevanttheoreticalresearch.High-techenterprisesmust notonlyfacetherapidlychangingandextremelycomplexexternalenvironment,butalso solvetheinternaldilemmaoflowsuccessratecausedbytechnologicalinnovationdifficulty. Withtheintensificationofcompetitioninthetechnologymarket,theriskoftechnological innovationinhigh-techenterpriseshasincreasinglybecomeadifficultproblemformanagers tosolve.Howtoidentify,measureanddealwiththehighrisksassociatedwithtechnological innovationprocess,andanalyzetheimpactoftechnologicalinnovationrisks.Factors, improvingthecontrolsystemandearlywarningmechanismfortechnologicalinnovationrisks, havebecomeanurgentproblemfacedbymanyhigh-techenterprises,andrelevantenterprises anddepartmentsshouldgivefullattention.Therefore,buildingahigh-techenterprise technologyinnovationriskcontrolsystemisthekeywaytosolveitshigh-riskproblems. Basedontheriskmanagementtheory,thisresearchtakesthehigh-techenterpriseJ companyastheresearchobject,combinesthetechnologyinnovationtheory,andusesthe expertscoringmethod,theanalytichierarchyprocess(AHP)andthefuzzycomprehensive evaluationmethodtoanalyzethe41risksthatmayexistintechnologicalinnovation. Indicators,builtthreesteps(identification,measurement,management),sevenaspectsof technologicalinnovationriskcontrolsystem,combinedwiththeactualsituationofJ company'stechnologicalinnovationtocarryoutresearch.Thefinalconclusionisasfollows: (1)Throughriskidentification,itwasfoundthatwhencompanyJwasintechnological innovation,therewerehigherrisksinthemarket,environment,andmanagement,butlessin humanresources,technology,finance,andproduction. (2)Throughriskmeasurement,itwasfoundthattheoverallrisklevelofCompanyJ duringtechnologicalinnovationwasgeneralrisk.Amongthem,thelevelofenvironmental riskishigher,andtherisklevelofotheraspectsisaverage. (3)AccordingtotheresultsofJ'stechnologicalinnovationriskidentificationand measurement,theriskcontrolorrisktransferstrategyisgenerallyadoptedformarket, financial,andmanagementrisklevels,andtheriskaversionstrategyforhigherenvironmental risklevels. Keywords:TechnologicalInnovation;RiskIdentification;RiskMeasurement;Risk Management 目录 1绪论..........................................................................................................................................1 1.1研究背景与意义...........................................................................................................1 1.1.1研究背景............................................................................................................1 1.1.2研究意义............................................................................................................2 1.2研究内容与目的...........................................................................................................3 1.2.1研究内容............................................................................................................3 1.2.2研究目的............................................................................................................3 1.3研究方法与技术路线图...............................................................................................4 1.3.1研究方法............................................................................................................4 1.3.2技术路线图........................................................................................................5 2相关概念及文献综述..............................................................................................................6 2.1高新技术企业内涵.......................................................................................................6 2.1.1高新技术企业概念............................................................................................6 2.1.2高新技术企业八大特征....................................................................................6 2.2技术创新相关研究.......................................................................................................8 2.2.1技术创新概念....................................................................................................8 2.2.2技术创新特征与分类........................................................................................9 2.3风险管理与企业风险控制体系相关研究.................................................................11 2.3.1风险管理相关研究..........................................................................................11 2.3.2企业风险控制体系相关研究..........................................................................13 3技术创新风险识别................................................................................................................19 3.1风险识别概述.............................................................................................................19 3.1.1风险识别概念..................................................................................................19 3.1.2风险识别方法..................................................................................................19 3.1.3风险类型划分..................................................................................................20 3.2风险因素指标体系.....................................................................................................21 3.2.1风险因素指标体系规划准则..........................................................................21 3.2.2技术创新风险因素分析..................................................................................22 3.3技术创新风险因素衡量指标体系.............................................................................30 4技术创新风险衡量................................................................................................................33 4.1技术创新风险衡量概念及目的.................................................................................33 4.2风险衡量方法.............................................................................................................33 4.2.1专家调查法......................................................................................................33 4.2.2层次分析法......................................................................................................33 4.2.3模糊综