21世纪以来，国际制造业市场朝着结构性饱和的方向不断发展，工业制品 供过于求的形式日趋严重，一些附加值较低的传统工业制品产能过剩的现象较为 普遍。黑龙江省作为我国传统的工业制造基地，形成了完善的工业结构体系。近 年来，随着制造业需求的萎靡不振，黑龙江省经济也陷入前所未有的困境，大量 衰退产业对黑龙江省的经济发展造成沉重负担。鉴于此，在我国宏观经济下行、 各行业战略转型持续推进的现实语境下，黑龙江省如何识别自身的衰退产业并采 取针对性的处置措施，对黑龙江省未来经济社会的发展具有至为关键的作用。本 文以经济新常态为研究背景，以黑龙江省衰退产业为研究样本，试图识别黑龙江 省的衰退产业，并针对其实际情况提出针对性的建议。本文基于衰退产业识别的 一般逻辑，构建黑龙江省衰退产业识别指标体系，从企业发展现状、企业发展预 期和行业发展预期三个方面展开因子分析并计算得分，从而实现对黑龙省衰退产 业的识别。结合新常态下黑龙江省发展的实际情况，借鉴国外衰退产业转型策略 的先进经验，提出新常态下黑龙江省衰退产业转型策略的总体思路和衰退产业转 型策略。 关键词：新常态；衰退产业；识别指标；产业转型 哈尔滨工程大学硕士学位论文 ABSTRACTS Sincethebeginningofthe21stcentury,thedemandforindustrialproductshas graduallydeclinedastheworldmarketformanufacturedproductsbecomes structurallysaturated.Inparticular,thetraditionalindustrialproductswithlow scientificandtechnologicalcontenthavebeensufferingfromwidespread overcapacity.Heilongjiangprovinceisatraditionalequipmentindustrymajor provinceinChinawitharelativelycompleteindustrialsystem.However,inrecent years,withthecontinuousshrinkingdemandofthemanufacturingindustry,the economyofHeilongjiangprovincehasalsoencounteredadevelopmentbottleneck, andmanydecliningindustrieshavesloweddowntheeconomicdevelopmentof Heilongjiangprovince.Therefore,howtoidentifythedecliningindustriesin Heilongjiangprovinceandtakecorrespondingmeasuresintimeiscrucialtothefuture developmentofHeilongjiangprovinceintheeraofrapidandrapidindustrial replacement.ThispaperstudiesthedecliningindustriesinHeilongjiangprovince underthenewnormal,identifiesthedecliningindustriesinHeilongjiangprovince, andthentakesdifferentmeasuresaccordingtodifferentconditionsofthedeclining industries.Inthispaper,firstly,accordingtotherecessionindustryidentificationlogic, theindexsystemofHeilongjiangprovince'srecessionindustryidentificationis constructed.Thefactoranalysisiscarriedoutfromthethreeaspectsofenterprise developmentstatus,enterprisedevelopmentexpectationandindustrydevelopment expectation,andthescoresarecalculatedtoidentifythesituationofHeilongjiang province'srecessionindustrybinedwiththeactualsituationofHeilongjiang provincedevelopmentunderthenewnorm,drawlessonsfromforeignadvanced experienceofrecessionindustrytransformationstrategy,putforwardunderthenew normal,declinetheoverallplanofindustrytransformationstrategyinHeilongjiang province,decliningindustrytransformationmeasures. Keywords:Newnormal;Decliningindustries;Identificationindicators;Industrial transformation 新常态下黑龙江省衰退产业转型策略研究 目录 第1章绪论.......................................................................................................................................1 1.1研究背景及意义..................................................................................................................1 1.1.1研究背景...................................................................................................................1 1.1.2研究意义...................................................................................................................2 1.2国内外研究现状..................................................................................................................2 1.2.1国外研究现状..........................................................................................................2 1.2.2国内研究现状..........................................................................................................4 1.2.3研究述评...................................................................................................................5 1.3研究内容与方法..................................................................................................................5 1.3.1研究内容...................................................................................................................5 1.3.2研究方法...................................................................................................................7 1.4主要创新点..........................................................................................................................7 第2章相关理论基础.......................................................................................................................9 2.1相关概念界定......................................................................................................................9 2.1.1“新常态”理念概述....................................................................................................9 2.1.2衰退产业的内涵....................................................................................................10 2.1.3产业转型的内涵....................................................................................................11 2.2产业生命周期理论............................................................................................................12 2.3本章小结............................................................................................................................13 第3章新常态下黑龙江省产业的现状分析..............................................................................14 3.1黑龙江省整体经济发展现状............................................................................................14 3.2黑龙江省产业发展现状与趋势.......................................................................................14 3.3黑龙江省工业产业发展现状分析...................................................................................16 3.3.1黑龙江省工业产业的形成与发展........................................................................16 3.3.2黑龙江省工业产业的现状....................................................................................17 3.4黑龙江省工业产业发展中存在的问题及原因................................................................22 3.4.1改革开放前黑龙江省工业结构存在的问题及原因............................................22 3.4.2改革开放后黑龙江省工业结构特点及存在的问题............................................22 3.5本章小结............................................................................................................................23 第4章新常态下黑龙江省衰退产业的识别..............................................................................24 4.1新常态下黑龙江省衰退产业的识别逻辑.......................................................................24 4.2新常态下黑龙江省衰退产业的识别指标体系构建与指标选择...................................25 4.3评价方法选择与主要数据处理过程...............................................................................27 4.3.1评价方法概述........................................................................................................27 4.3.2数据收集概况........................................................................................................28 4.3.3主要数据处理过程................................................................................................30 4.4得分结果与衰退产业识别...............................................................................................34 4.4.1企业发展预期得分情况........................................................................................34 4.4.2行业发展预期的得分情况....................................................................................36 4.4.3企业发展现状的得分情况....................................................................................39 4.4.4衰退产业的识别....................................................................................................41 哈尔滨工程大学硕士学位论文 4.5本章小结................................