信息技术发展在许多行业产生了影响，尤其是对全球化供应链和 采购，从某种意义上来说促进了国际分工，全球化供应链趋势带来了 更加复杂的供应链结构，同时也给企业带来了越来越多的外部不确定 性。在全球化的今天，我们的客户需求的多样性，产品的更新迭代速 度远超从前，生命周期越来越短，精益技术和敏捷制造技术的推广， 这些种种变化也给公司带来了更多的未知的供应风险。在这样的情形 之下，企业必须要通过找到新的技术和管理方法以期获得竞争优势， 提升运营效率，最终使得企业的成本降低，提高响应市场的速度。 本文首先介绍了国内外供应风险管理领域的研究现状，系统地归 纳和总结了可以使用于大部分企业常见的供应风险因素。其次，本文 对GME公司运营现状进行了回顾，指出了GME公司目前存在的若 干问题。文章在第三部分对GME公司存在的风险进行了识别，分别 从公司组织内外部环境风险，售后进口零件采购风险，供应的成本风 险，物流风险这几个方面进行了阐述，并且通过运用SCOR，FEMA 和专家分析法对上诉风险进行了分析。文章在第四部分分别从风险事 前控制，风险事中应对，风险时候管理三个环节给出了不同的风险应 对策略。最后通过结合GME公司实际的案例，阐述了供应风险管理 的重要性。 本文研究的成果有利于GME公司找到自身在供应风险管理存在 的薄弱之处，可以更好地制定合理的策略来应对供应风险，减少风险 带来的损失。同时，本文研究的成果，风险应对的方案也可以为其他 汽车公司提供行业模板，具有一定的借鉴意义。 关键词：供应风险，SCOR FEMA，ABC法，合同组合策略，冗余策 略 RESEARCH ON SUPPLY RISK OF GME AUTOMOBILE IMPORT PARTS ABSTRACT The development of IT technology largely enhance the supply chain globalization and international division of labor. The supply chain globalization on the other hand bring more complicated supply chain module, as well as more uncertainty of the external environment. Currently, these changes, in terms of the diversity of customer demand, more shorter product life cycles, lean manufacturing and agile manufacturing, give enterprise more unknown supply risk. Under this circumstance, company must seek new technology and management skills to gain a competitive advantage and improve operational efficiency with the aim to reduce the cost and become quicker to respond to market. This article first introduces the current research in supply risk management, and through theoretical research to sum up the supply risk factors can be applied to most types of manufacturing companies. Secondly, by reviewing the current operation of GME automobile company, it points out some weakness of import operation. Thirdly, it identify some supply risk from internal and external environment, procurement risk, supply chain cost risk and logistics risk. Meanwhile, it analyze these risks by SCOR, FEMA and AHP. Last but not least, this article come up with some solutions to handle supply risks from different stage when risks occurred. Finally based on the analysis of the GME company case, it emphasize that supply risks management can’t be ignored. The output of this article can help GME company to find out the weakness in supply chain management. GME LTD can take early action on handling supply risks and reduce the loss of supply risks. The supply risk assessment model in this paper also has reference value for other auto parts companies. KEY WORDS: supply risk, SCOR FEMA, ABC analysis, contract combination strategy, redundancy strategy 目录 第 1 章 绪论 ................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 研究背景与意义 ................................................................................................................ 1 1.2 国内外供应风险管理的发展现状与趋势 ........................................................................ 2 1.2.1 国外的研究现状 ..................................................................................................... 2 1.2.2 国内对于供应风险研究兴起 ................................................................................. 4 1.2.3 汽车行业供应风险研究现状 ................................................................................. 5 1.3 研究内容与方法 ................................................................................................................ 6 1.3.1 研究内容 ................................................................................................................. 6 1.3.2 研究方法 ................................................................................................................. 6 第 2 章 GME汽车公司售后进口零件供应管理存在的问题 ..................................................... 8 2.1 GME公司概况 ................................................................................................................... 8 2.1.1供应品类繁杂 .......................................................................................................... 8 2.1.2供应周期长 .............................................................................................................. 9 2.1.3配件价值高且客户需求急迫 .................................................................................. 9 2.2 GME公司售后进口配件供应存在的问题 ....................................................................... 9 2.2.1中国合资公司缺乏研发能力导致供应商由全球采购中心决定 .......................... 9 2.2.2进口供应商不遵守合同并出现断供或者随意涨价的情况 ................................ 10 2.2.3物流运作成本居高不下 ........................................................................................ 11 2.3 加强供应风险管理的紧迫性 .......................................................................................... 12 第 3 章 GME售后进口零件供应风险识别与分析 ................................................................... 13 3.1 GME公司售后进口零件供应风险识别 ......................................................................... 13 3.1.1 GME公司组织内外部环境风险 .......................................................................... 13 3.1.2 GME公司售后进口零件采购风险 ...................................................................... 14 3.1.3 GME公司售后进口零件供应的成本风险 .......................................................... 15 3.1.4 GME公司售后进口零件供应的物流风险 .......................................................... 16 3.2 GME公司售后进口零件供应风险分析 ......................................................................... 17 3.2.1 基于SCOR模型的供应风险分析 ...................................................................... 17 3.2.2 专家打分综合评价分析 ....................................................................................... 19 第 4 章 对于GME汽车公司售后进口零件供应风险管理的应对策略 .................................. 20 4.1 GME公司进口配件供应风险潜伏期的控制-事前风险预控与预警 ............................ 20 4.1.1 供应商ABC法分级管理策略 ............................................................................. 20 4.1.2 采购合同组合管理策略 ....................................................................................... 22 4.2 事中风险应对策略 .......................................................................................................... 25 4.2.1 冗余的基本理论 ................................................................................................... 25 4.2.2 供应链冗余 ........................................................................................................... 26 4.2.3 GME公司建立合理的供应链冗余 ...................................................................... 27 4.2.4 GME公司降低无效冗余 ...................................................................................... 27 4.3 GME公司供应风险事后管理措施-事后风险管理 ........................................................ 29 4.3.1 FEMA失效模式与失效分析工具 ........................................................................ 29 4.3.2 FEMA的分析过程 ................................................................................................ 29 4.3.3 运用FEMA进行事后风险管理 .......................................................................... 30 第 5 章 实施效果分析 ...............................