存款准备金制度作为我国宏观调控的三大货币政策工具之一，对我国经济的长期 稳定繁荣发展发挥着不可替代的作用。而商业银行作为货币政策信贷传导渠道的主体， 在我国货币政策传导与货币政策实施的过程中扮演着至关重要的角色。迄今为止，我 国对存款准备金的相应调整已经高达57次。每一次调整都对银行等金融机构产生了显 著的影响。而房地产业是一个需要投入大量资金的行业，在发展过程中需要商业银行 的大力支持，同时个人按揭贷款、法人按揭贷款的资金都来源于商业银行。考虑到存款 准备金率和银行房地产信贷业务之间的紧密关系，探究存款准备金制度对银行房地产 信贷业务的影响机理，能够促进商业银行房地产信贷业务长期稳定发展。 本文首先介绍了研究的背景及意义，并对与货币政策、房价和银行房地产信贷相 关的文献进行梳理、总结和归纳，同时简述了本文的研究内容和主要研究方法。然后阐 述了与存款准备金率和银行房地产信贷业务相关概念、理论及现状。第三部分探究了 存款准备金率调整对银行房地产信贷业务的影响机理，表明存款准备金制度通过房价 的中介作用影响商业银行的房地产信贷业务。第四部分是本文的案例分析，分析了A 商业银行近五年法定存款准备金变化情况和房地产贷款情况，研究了存款准备金制度 对A银行房地产信贷业务的具体影响，并分析了A银行在应对存款准备金率调整中存 在的问题。第五部分结合目前A银行的实际状况和本文的理论与实证研究结果，提出 了A银行应对存款准备金率调整的具体对策建议，以期能够帮助A银行防范房地产信 贷风险，促进房地产信贷业务稳定发展。 通过本文的研究，探究了存款准备金率对房地产价格的影响机理，证实了存款准 备金率与银行房地产信贷业务之间的关系，发现了房地产价格在其中的中介作用，具 有一定的理论意义。同时，本文提出了A银行应对存款准备金率调整的具体对策建议， 以期帮助A银行更好适应存款准备金率调整，促进A商业银行房地产信贷业务长期稳 定发展，并为同类银行提供参考和借鉴，达到增强银行房贷业务竞争力的目的，具有一 定现实意义。 关键词：存款准备金率；房地产贷款；房价；时间序列分析 西南交通大学硕士研究生学位论文 第II页 Abstract As one of the three major monetary policy tools of macro-control in China, the deposit reserve system plays an irreplaceable role in the long-term stability and prosperity of China's economy. As the main body of the credit transmission channel of monetary policy, commercial banks play a vital role in the transmission and implementation of monetary policy in China. So far, the corresponding adjustment of deposit reserve in China has been as high as 57 times. Each adjustment has had a significant impact on banks and other financial institutions. The real estate industry is an industry that needs to invest a lot of money, which needs the strong support of commercial banks in the process of development. at the same time, the funds of personal mortgage loans and corporate mortgage loans come from commercial banks. Considering the close relationship between deposit reserve ratio and bank real estate credit business, exploring the influence mechanism of deposit reserve system on bank real estate credit business can promote the long-term and stable development of commercial bank real estate credit business. First of all, this paper introduces the background and significance of the research, and combs, summarizes and summarizes the literature related to monetary policy, housing prices and bank real estate credit, and briefly describes the research content and main research methods of this paper. Then it expounds the concepts, theories and current situation related to the deposit reserve ratio and bank real estate credit business. The third part explores the influence mechanism of the adjustment of deposit reserve ratio on the real estate credit business of banks, which shows that the deposit reserve system affects the real estate credit business of commercial banks through the mediation of house prices. The fourth part is the case analysis of this paper, which analyzes the changes of the legal deposit reserve and the real estate loan of A commercial bank in the past five years, and studies the specific influence of the deposit reserve system on the real estate credit business of A bank. it also analyzes the problems existing in A bank in dealing with the adjustment of deposit reserve ratio. Combined with the actual situation of A Bank and the theoretical and empirical research results of this paper, the fifth part puts forward some specific countermeasures and suggestions for A Bank to adjust the deposit reserve ratio, in order to help A Bank to guard against real estate credit 西南交通大学硕士研究生学位论文 第III页 risks. promote the stable development of real estate credit business. Through the research of this paper, this paper explores the influence mechanism of the deposit reserve ratio on the real estate price, confirms the relationship between the deposit reserve ratio and the bank real estate credit business, and finds that the real estate price plays a mediating role in it. it has certain theoretical significance. At the same time, this paper puts forward specific countermeasures and suggestions for A bank to deal with the adjustment of deposit reserve ratio, in order to help A bank better adapt to the adjustment of deposit reserve ratio and promote the long-term and stable development of real estate credit business of A commercial banks. and provide reference for similar banks to achieve the purpose of enhancing the competitiveness of bank housing loan business, has a certain practical significance. Key word: Reserve ratio; Real estate loan；House prices; Time series analysis; 西南交通大学硕士研究生学位论文 第IV页 目 录 第1章 绪论 ............................................................................................................................ 1 1.1 研究背景和意义 ........................................................................................................ 1 1.1.1 研究背景 .......................................................................................................... 1 1.1.2 研究意义 .......................................................................................................... 1 1.2 国内外研究现状综述 ................................................................................................ 2 1.2.1 货币政策与房价关系相关研究 ...................................................................... 2 1.2.2 房价变化与银行房地产信贷业务关系相关研究 .......................................... 4 1.2.3 存款准备金率调整对银行影响的相关研究 .................................................. 5 1.2.4 研究现状述评 .................................................................................................. 7 1.3 研究内容和研究方法 ................................................................................................ 8 1.3.1 研究内容 .......................................................................................................... 8 1.3.2 研究方法 .......................................................................................................... 9 第2章 相关概念、理论及现状 .......................................................................................... 10 2.1 存款准备金率概述 .................................................................................................. 10 2.1.1 存款准备金基本原理 .................................................................................... 10 2.1.2 我国存款准备金率的历次调整 .................................................................... 11 2.1.3 我国存款准备金率调整的原因 .................................................................... 13 2.1.4 存款准备金率调整现状 ................................................................................ 16 2.2 银行房地产信贷概述 .............................................................................................. 17 2.2.1 房地产信贷的概念 ........................................................................................ 17 2.2.2 房地产信贷的类型 ........................................................................................ 17 2.2.3 我国房地产信贷市场的特点 ........................................................................ 18 2.3 协整理论与向量自回归模型 ..............................................