I 摘要 随着我国国民收入水平的逐渐提高，人们的消费观念和消费水平也发生了变化，同 时也带动了商业银行个人信贷业务的发展。对商业银行来说，如何识别风险、有效化解 风险，提升风险控制水平，从而减少商业银行风险损失具有一定的理论价值与实际意义。 本文以农业银行乌鲁木齐分行的个人信贷业务为研究对象，运用文献研究法、案例 分析法及回归分析法，基于COSO内部控制整合框架和全面风险管理框架，结合《企业 内部控制基本规范》及三个配套指引（应用指引、评价指引和审计指引），从控制环境、 风险评估、控制活动、信息与沟通、监督等方面对个人信贷业务进行诊断分析，研究发 现：该银行在个人信贷业务风险管理方面存在企业文化建设不到位、人力资源结构不合 理、风险评估不够深入、量化水平仍需提高、风险控制措施不到位、内部信息传递不及 时以及缺乏会计监督机制等问题，并深入剖析了导致这些问题存在的主要原因，同时选 取借款人的年龄、教育程度、婚姻状况、单位性质、月收入、职务、贷款金额和用途、 还款方式等九项指标构建Logistic回归模型及相应的评估体系，对其风险进行实证分 析，进而得出月收入、婚姻状况和教育程度这三个指标对风险评估影响较大，在个贷业 务风险控制中是值得关注的三个重要因素这一结论。 针对农业银行乌鲁木齐分行个人信贷业务风险管理诊断分析中发现的问题，提出了 从加强企业文化建设和人力资源建设、建立员工培训长效机制、全面、及时的进行风险 评估、持续加强业务流程管理、建立科学的内部信息传递机制、完善内部监督检查机制 等多个角度提升个人信贷风险控制水平的对策，这对于加强农业银行乌鲁木齐分行的风 险管控、促进资产健康经营发展具有一定的现实意义,同时也为其他商业银行个人信贷 风险控制方面提供借鉴。 关键词：农业银行乌鲁木齐分行；个人信贷业务；内部控制整合框架；风险控制 Abstract II Abstract WiththegradualimprovementofChina'snationalincomelevel,people'sconsumption conceptandconsumptionlevelhavealsochanged,whichalsodrivesthedevelopmentof personalcreditbusinessofcommercialbanks.Forcommercialbanks,howtoidentifytherisk, effectivelyresolvetherisk,improvethelevelofriskcontrol,soastoreducetherisklossof commercialbankshasacertaintheoreticalvalueandpracticalsignificance. TakingUrumqibranchofAgriculturalBankofChinapersonalcreditbusinessasthe researchobject,usingliteratureresearch,caseanalysisandregressionanalysis,basedonthe COSOinternalcontrolintegratedframeworkandcomprehensiveriskmanagementframework, combinedwiththeenterpriseinternalcontrolbasicnormsandthreeauxiliaryguide (applicationguidance,evaluationguidance,andauditguidelines),fromthecontrol environment,riskassessment,controlactivities,informationandcommunication,supervision ofpersonalcreditbusinessdiagnosisanalysis,thestudyfoundthat:Thebankinpersonal creditbusinessriskmanagemententerprisecultureconstructiondoesnotreachthedesignated position,unreasonablestructureofhumanresources,riskassessmentisnotenoughin-depth andquantitativelevelstillneedtoimproveinternalinformationtransmission,riskcontrol measuresdonotreachthedesignatedposition,notintimeandthelackofaccounting supervisionmechanism,andanalysesthecausesoftheseproblems,andtheborrower'sage, educationlevel,maritalstatus,unitproperties,monthlyincome,position,loanamountand purpose,reimbursementmeansnineindexessuchasLogisticregressionmodelwas constructedandthecorrespondingevaluationsystem,totheempiricalanalysisoftherisk, Furthermore,itisconcludedthatmonthlyincome,maritalstatusandeducationlevelhavea greatimpactonriskassessment,whicharethethreeimportantfactorsworthyofattentionin riskcontrolofpersonalloanbusiness. Inviewoftheproblemsfoundinthediagnosisandanalysisofpersonalcreditbusiness riskmanagementofUrumqibranchofAgriculturalBank,thispaperputsforwardsome countermeasurestoimprovethelevelofpersonalcreditriskcontrolfromtheaspectsof strengtheningenterprisecultureconstructionandhumanresourceconstruction,establishing long-termmechanismofstafftraining,comprehensiveandtimelyriskassessment, continuouslystrengtheningbusinessprocessmanagement,establishingscientificinternal informationtransmissionmechanismandperfectinginternalsupervisionandinspection mechanism,whichisofpracticalsignificancetostrengthentheriskcontrolofUrumqibranch Abstract III ofAgriculturalBankandpromotethehealthymanagementanddevelopmentofassets,and alsoprovidesreferenceforthepersonalcreditriskcontrolofothercommercialbanks. KeyWords:UrumqiBranchofAgriculturalBankofChina;Internalcontrolintegration framework;Personalcreditbusiness;RiskControl 目录 IV 目录 1绪论.......................................................................................................................................1 1.1研究背景及意义........................................................................................................1 1.1.1研究背景.........................................................................................................1 1.1.2研究意义.........................................................................................................2 1.2国内外文献综述........................................................................................................3 1.2.1国外文献综述.................................................................................................3 1.2.2国内文献综述.................................................................................................4 1.2.3文献评述.........................................................................................................5 1.3研究思路及内容........................................................................................................5 1.4研究方法及技术路线................................................................................................6 1.4.1研究方法.........................................................................................................6 1.4.2研究的技术路线.............................................................................................6 2概念界定及理论基础...........................................................................................................7 2.1个人信贷业务风险相关概述....................................................................................7 2.1.1个人信贷业务风险定义.................................................................................7 2.1.2个人信贷业务风险种类.................................................................................7 2.1.3个人信贷业务风险特征.................................................................................8 2.2个人信贷业务相关理论基础....................................................................................9 2.2.1预期收入理论.................................................................................................9 2.2.2信用脆弱理论.................................................................................................9 2.2.3信息不对称理论.............................................................................................9 2.3理论框架..................................................................................................................10 2.3.1COSO内部控制整合框架..............................................................................10 2.3.2全面风险管理框架.......................................................................................11 2.3.3企业内部控制基本规范...............................................................................11 2.3.4内部控制三个配套指引...............................................................................12 3国内外个人信贷业务风险管理模式比较分析.................................................................13 3.1个人信贷业务风险管理模式分析..........................................................................13 3.1.1个人信贷业务风险管理现状.......................................................................13 3.1.2个人信贷业务风险管理模式.......................................................................14 目录 V 3.2境外个人信贷业务风险管理模式...................................................................14 3.2.1美国管理模式...............................................................................................14 3.2.2德国管理模式......................................................................................