我国信托业率先发展于上海，中国商通信托公司在1921年正式成立， 1949-1978年的计划经济体制期间，信托业务处于停滞状态。1979年10月中国 国际信托投资公司对外宣布恢复经营。在这之后不同形式的信托投资公司纷纷在 市场涌现。据统计，在1988年国内信托公司达到一千多家，资产超过六千亿元， 占到当时金融总资产的10%。行业高速发展的背后必然会出现许多的问题和隐 患，我国的信托行业也是历经了六次大的整顿，而现存的68家信托又即将面临 第七次的整顿。 信托行业在一法三规的法律体系确定后，从2007年到2017年是进入了高速 发展的黄金十年。虽然也面临过金融危机，但是信托的制度红利和隐性刚兑还是 一直在助推着野蛮发展，时至今日信托资产规模也在金融四大支柱中仅次于银 行，高峰时达到空前的26万余亿。因此从2017年十九大开始习总书记提出“防 范化解重大风险”中就有化解金融风险，在此强监管的大背景下，去泡沫就成为 大趋势，多地政府和监管部门都出台了相关政策，集中开展“三违反”、“三套 利”、“四不当”整治行动。特别在2018年资管新规出台后，信托面临了巨大 的挑战，一系列风险都在发展放缓后暴露了出来，上市公司、地产、包括政府平 台的风险项目不断增多、发酵，还有民营控股的信托公司的自融资金池问题更是 尤为突出。接踵而来的就是各家信托都必须面对如何处理风险项目的问题。 经济周期有起有落，信托行业亦是如此。每个阶段的项目风险不同，虽然处 理的手段各异，但管理的目标却不尽相同。本文对信托行业经济发展环境、政策 环境等进行分析，根据XS信托公司项目风险的特征、表现和风险成因等，运用 PEST和7S分析模型，结合项目风险管理的基础理论，从事前风险识别，事中 项目管理和事后处置三个阶段提出优化改进建议。提出适应于该信托公司项目风 险管理的方案，助力在标准化产品的发展背景下实现业务模式的转型，满足新时 期市场多信托产品的需求，形成可持续健康绿色发展。希望能够为XS信托公司 或其他信托公司在项目风险管理中带去有效的参考。 关键词：信托；项目管理；风险管理；优化 III Abstract China'strustindustrytooktheleadinthedevelopmentofShanghai，China BusinessTrustcompanywasformallyestablishedin1921，1949-1978planned economy，thetrustbusinesswasatastandstill．inOctober1979，theChina InternationalTrustandInvestmentCorporationannouncedtheresumptionof business．Sincethen，differentformsoftrustandinvestmentcompanieshaveemerged inthemarket.Accordingtostatistics，in1988，thereweremorethan1，000trust companiesinChina，withassetsinexcessofsixhundredbillion，accountingfor10% ofthetotalfinancialassetsatthattime.Manyproblemsandhiddendangerswill inevitablyappearbehindtherapiddevelopmentoftheindustry．Mycountry'strust industryhasalsoundergonesixmajorrectifications，andtheexisting68trustsare abouttofacetheseventhrectification． Thetrustindustryenteredthegoldendecadeofrapiddevelopmentfrom2007to 2017afterthelegalsystemofthefirstlawandthreeregulationswas established．Althoughithasfacedfinancialcrises，theinstitutionaldividendsand implicitredemptionoftrustshavebeenpromotingthebarbaricdevelopment.Until now，thescaleoftrustassetsisalsointhefinancialsector．Thefourpillarsaresecond onlytobanks，reachinganunprecedented26trillionatthepeak．Therefore，starting fromthe19thNationalCongressof2017，PresidentXi’sproposalof＂preventing andresolvingmajorrisks＂includedresolvingfinancialrisks．Underthebackground ofthisstrongsupervision，Defoaminghasbecomeamajortrend，andmany governmentsandregulatoryagencieshaveintroducedrelevantpolicies，Focuson the＂threeviolations＂，＂threearbitrage＂，＂fourimproper＂corrective action．Especiallyaftertheintroductionofnewassetmanagementregulationsin 2018，trustsfacedhugechallenges，aseriesofriskswereallexposedafterthe developmentslowdown.Riskprojectsoflistedcompanies，realestate，including governmentplatforms，Theproblemofself-financinggoldpoolsofprivatelyheld trustcompaniesisevenmoreprominent.Whatfollowedisthateachtrustmustface IV theproblemofhowtodealwithriskyprojects． Thereareupsanddownsintheeconomiccycle，soisthetrustindustry．Project risksaredifferentateverystage，Althoughthemeansofdealingwiththemare different，theobjectivesofmanagementarethesame．Thispaperanalyzesthe economicdevelopmentenvironmentandpolicyenvironmentofthetrustindustry， accordingtothecharacteristics，performanceandriskcausesoftheprojectriskof XSTrustCompany，usingPESTand7Sanalysismodels,combinedwiththebasic theoryofprojectriskmanagement，wewillmakesuggestionsforoptimizationand improvementinthethreestagesofpre-riskidentification，projectmanagementand post-disposal．Thisproposalisputforwardtoadapttotheprojectriskmanagementof thetrustcompany，whichcanhelptotransformthebusinessmodelunderthe backgroundofthedevelopmentofstandardizedproducts，meettheneedsof multi-trustproductsinthemarketinthenewperiod，andformasustainableand healthygreendevelopment．Itishopedthatthiswillprovideaneffectivereferencefor XSTrustcompanyorothertrustcompanyinprojectriskmanagement． Key-words：Trust；ProjectManagement；RiskManagement；Optimization V 目录 1绪论............................................................................................................................1 1.1研究背景.........................................................................................................1 1.2研究意义.........................................................................................................2 1.2.1理论意义..............................................................................................3 1.2.2实践意义..............................................................................................3 1.3国内外研究现状.............................................................................................3 1.3.1国外研究现状......................................................................................3 1.3.2国内研究现状......................................................................................4 1.3.3研究综述..............................................................................................5 1.4研究内容与方法.............................................................................................6 1.4.1研究内容..............................................................................................6 1.4.2研究方法..............................................................................................6 1.5研究的主要分析方法.....................................................................................7 1.5.1PEST分析法..........................................................................................7 1.5.27S模型..................................................................................................7 2相关理论基础............................................................................................................8 2.1信托.................................................................................................................8 2.1.1信托概念..............................................................................................8 2.1.2信托构成要素......................................................................................8 2.1.3信托运行的过程..................................................................................8 2.1.4信托业务分类及主要特征..................................................................8 2.2信托项目风险概念.......................................................................................10 2.3项目管理概念...............................................................................................10 2.4项目风险管理...............................................................................................10 2.4.1项目风险管理概念............................................................................10 2.4.2信托项目风险管理框架....................................................................11 2.5研究的主要理论基础...................................................................................11 2.5.1信息不对称理论................................................................................11 2.5.2篮子理论............................................................................................11 2.5.3项目生命周期（ProjectLifeCycle）理论................................12 2.5.4“人情与面子”理论模型......................................