改革开放以来，我国旅游业明显表现出高速发展态势，在国民经济中逐渐占 据重要地位，为新型城镇化进程提供了重要的产业支持；而新型城镇化作为经济 新常态下实现我国经济结构转型升级、扩大内需的创新驱动力，已成为我国一项 重要发展战略，城镇化的快速推进也为旅游业的发展奠定了多方面基矗旅游业、 新型城镇化与经济增长之间关系密切，如何有效推进新型城镇化建设，发挥旅游 业的经济增长潜力，协调旅游业与新型城镇化的良性互动关系，对于推进我国社 会经济发展具有重要意义。 鉴于此，本文首先对新型城镇化相关研究进行梳理，从 7 个维度构建省际新 型城镇化发展水平综合评价指标体系对中国 2004-2014 年 30 个省级行政区（不 含西藏和港澳台）的新型城镇化发展水平进行综合测度，并分析其发展动态及地 区差异。其次，在系统探讨旅游业、新型城镇化与经济增长之间互动影响关系的 理论基础上，将旅游业与新型城镇化纳入统一的研究框架下，实证研究旅游业与 新型城镇化的经济增长效应，同时引入旅游业与新型城镇化交互项，检验旅游业 与新型城镇化融合对经济增长的影响。再次，本文在中国 TLG 假说的理论基础 上进行了拓展和深化，将新型城镇化纳入旅游业影响经济增长的研究框架中，采 用门槛回归模型，实证检验新型城镇化进程是否会制约旅游业发展促进经济增长 效应的发挥。研究结果表明：①我国省际新型城镇化发展水平整体持续提升，地 区发展不均衡，但整体相对差距存在缩小趋势；②旅游业和新型城镇化对于经济 增长均具有显著促进作用，但旅游业与新型城镇化融合对地区经济增长存在负面 影响效应，即两者的经济增长效应在一定程度上呈现替代关系；③旅游发展对经 济增长的影响受地区新型城镇化发展水平的制约，表现出区域异质的非线性门槛 特征，并且在全国层面，随着新型城镇化发展水平的不断提升，旅游业对经济增 长呈现出先降后升的“U”型影响过程。最后，根据研究结论，本文就旅游业和 新型城镇化发展战略以及旅游业与新型城镇化的协调耦合提出了政策建议与研 究展望，旨在为未来相关研究和实践探索提供科学依据和决策参考。 关键词：新型城镇化，旅游业，经济增长，门槛效应浙江工业大学硕士学位论文 II RESEARCH ON THE IMPACT OF TOURISM AND NEW URBANIZATION ON ECONOMIC GROWTH ABSTRACT Since the reform and opening up, China's tourism industry has clearly demonstrated its rapid development, and has gradually occupied an important position in the national economy, providing important industrial support for the new urbanization process. At the same time, the new urbanization, as a new driving force for realizing the transformation and upgrading of China's economic structure and expanding domestic demand under the new economic normal, has become an important development strategy for China. And the rapid advancement of urbanization has also laid a multi-faceted foundation for the development of tourism. There is a close link between tourism, new urbanization and economic growth. Therefore, how to effectively promote the new urbanization construction, give play to the economic growth potential of tourism, and coordinate the benign interaction between tourism and new urbanization is of great significance for promoting China's social and economic development. In view of this, firstly, this paper sorts out the research on new urbanization, and constructs an evaluation index system for provincial new urbanization development level from seven dimensions. Then comprehensively measure the development level of new urbanization in 30 provincial-level administrative regions (excluding Tibet, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) from 2004 to 2014, analyzing its dynamic evolution and regional differences. Secondly, based on the theory of systematically exploring the interaction between tourism, new urbanizationand economic growth, we integrate tourism and new urbanization into a unified research framework to test the impact of tourism and new urbanization on economic growth. Further, we introduce the coupling of tourism and new urbanization to test the impact of the integration of tourism and new urbanization on economic growth. Thirdly, this paper expands and deepens the theoretical system of China's TLG hypothesis. It incorporates new urbanization into the research framework of tourism impacting economic growth.旅游业、新型城镇化对经济增长的影响研究 III With the threshold regression model, this paper empirically tests whether the new urbanization process will restrict the tourism industry's role in promoting economic growth. Estimation results showed: ① China's provincial new urbanization development continues to improve overall, and regional development is not balanced, but the overall relative difference shows a downward trend; ②Tourism and new urbanization have a significant role in promoting economic growth. However, the integration of tourism and new urbanization has a negative impact on economic growth, in other words, the economic promotion effects of the two presents a substitutional relationship to a certain extent; ③The impact of tourism development on economic growth is constrained by the level of new urbanization development, presenting a heterogeneous nonlinear threshold. At the national level, with the continuous improvement of new urbanization development, the tourism industry shows a “U”-shaped impact process on economic growth. Finally, based on the research conclusions, this paper proposes policy recommendations and research prospects for tourism and new urbanization development strategies and the coordinated coupling of tourism and new urbanization, aiming to provide scientific basis and decision-making reference for future related research and practical exploration. KEY WORDS: new urbanization, tourism, economic growth, threshold effect浙江工业大学硕士学位论文 IV 目 录 摘要.I ABSTRACT.....................II 目 录.............................IV 插图清单........................VII 表格清单........................VII 第一章 绪 论.................1 1.1 研究背景及意义.1 1.1.1 研究背景...1 1.1.2 研究意义...3 1.2 研究思路及结构安排........................5 1.2.1 技术路线...5 1.2.2 研究内容与结构安排..............6 1.3 研究方法及创新点.............................6 1.3.1 研究方法...6 1.3.2 创新点.......7 第二章 文献综述与理论基础........................8 2.1 新型城镇化文献综述........................8 2.1.1 概念界定...8 2.1.2 内涵差异...9 2.1.3 水平测度.11 2.1.4 实践探索.12 2.2 旅游业与新型城镇化关系文献综述.............................13 2.2.1 旅游业与城镇化....................13 2.2.2 旅游业与新型城镇化............15 2.3 旅游业与经济增长关系文献综述..16 2.4 新型城镇化与经济增长关系文献综述.........................17 2.5 研究述评...........19 第三章 新型城镇化发展综合评价..............21 3.1 新型城镇化发展水平综合评价指标体系.....................21 3.1.1 指标体系构建........................21 3.1.2 指标选择说明........................22 3.1.3 研究范围及数据来源............24旅游业、新型城镇化对经济增长的影响研究 V 3.3 新型城镇化发展水平综合测度模型.............................24 3.3.1 测度模型设定........................24 3.3.2 模型测度结果........................27 3.4 中国省际新型城镇化发展水平综合分析.....................31 3.4.1 中国省际新型城镇化发展水平的可视化描述...31 3.4.2 中国省际新型城镇化发展水平的空间非均衡测度与分解..............33 3.4.3 新型城镇化发展水平动态演进分析...................37 第四章 旅游业与新型城镇化对经济增长的影响机制.............39 4.1 引言...................39 4.2 理论机制与研究假说......................39 4.2.1 旅游业与经济增长................39 4.2.2 新型城镇化与经济增长........40 4.2.3 旅游业与新型城镇化............41 4.3 实证模型与数据说明......................45 4.3.1 实证模型设定........................45 4.3.2 变量构造.45 4.3.3 数据说明.46 4.3.4 描述性统计分析....................46 4.4 实证结果分析...49 4.4.1 平稳性检验............................49 4.4.2 基准回归结果........................49 4.4.3 考虑区域异质性的回归结果52 4.5 稳健性检验.......54 4.5.1 稳健性检验 I..........................54 4.5.2 稳健性检验 II.........................55 第五章 旅游业影响经济增长的新型城镇化门槛效应分析.....57 5.1 引言...................57 5.2 理论机制分析...57 5.3 门槛模型与数据说明......................58 5.3.1 门槛模型设定........................58 5.3.2 数据说明.59 5.4 门槛效应检验...59 5.4.1 全国层面门槛效应检验........59 5.4.2 分区域门槛效应检验....