1 随着近十几年来我国航空公司业务量和航班量的高速增长，由机务维修人 员违章行为造成的航班延误、航班取消时有发生，降低了民航企业服务质量，部 分违章行为还导致不安全事件的发生，造成有形和无形损失。目前，我国民航系 统管控机务维修人员违章行为的模式属于“情景-应对”型，难以防范违章行为 发生。为避免民航机务维修人员违章行为对乘客、航空公司造成的不良影响，亟 需对机务维修人员违章行为风险进行预警，在其违章行为发生前发出预警信号， 从而有效遏制违章行为的产生。本文以民航机务维修人员作为研究对象，识别民 航机务维修人员违章行为风险因素，构建预警指标体系并进行监测预警，实现了 违章行为风险趋势的预测，用以有效降低民航机务维修人员违章行为风险，提升 民航企业服务质量，提高民航企业整体安全管理水平。 全文由六部分组成。第一部分主要探讨本文的研究目的、意义，通过充分的 文献查阅总结归纳国内外研究现状，阐明本文的研究内容和研究方法；第二部分 界定民航机务维修人员、民航机务维修人员违章行为、民航机务维修人员违章行 为风险等概念，对风险预警理论进行阐述；第三部分进行民航机务维修人员违章 行为风险因素的识别，主要包括民航机务维修人员违章行为风险因素识别方法 的选择、扎根理论和机务维修人因分析分类系统（HFACS-ME）的应用、民航机 务维修人员违章行为风险因素的层次结构等内容；第四部分进行机务维修人员 违章行为风险监测预警，设计民航机务维修人员违章行为风险预警指标体系，筛 选关键预警指标，确定出符合实际、利于理解的指标含义和阈值，进行监测预警； 第五部分通过预警模型的比较，选择马尔科夫链构建民航机务维修人员违章行 为风险预测预警模型；针对风险预警提出民航机务维修人员违章行为预控对策； 第六部分总结本文的研究成果和创新点，阐述其中的局限性，并展望后续研究思 路。 本文创新点主要体现在：设计了民航机务维修人员违章行为风险预警指标 体系，针对关键预警指标实现监测预警；基于马尔科夫链构建了民航机务维修人 员违章行为风险预警模型，预测了民航机务维修人员违章行为风险变化趋势。 关键词：民航机务维修人员，违章行为，风险识别，风险预警指标，风险预测预 警 1本文得到教育部人文社会科学研究项目资助“基于大数据的民航员工不安全行为风险预警及管控研究”（批 准号：18YJA630076） II Abstract2 With the rapid growth of the business volume and flight volume of China's airlines in recent decades, the flight delays and cancellations caused by civil aircraft maintenance personnel’s violation behavior have occurred from time to time, which has reduced the service quality of civil aviation enterprises. Some violations also lead to unsafe incidents, causing tangible and intangible losses. At present, China's civil aviation system manage the violation behavior of maintenance personnel belongs to the "situational-response" model, it is difficult to prevent the occurrence of violation behavior. In order to avoid the adverse impact caused by the violation behavior of civil aircraft maintenance personnel, it is urgent to give early-warning to the risk of civil aircraft maintenance personnel’s violation behavior, and issue early-warning signal before the occurrence of violation behaviors, so as to curb the occurrence of violation behaviors effectively. Based on civil aircraft maintenance personnel as the object, identify risk factors in civil aircraft maintenance personnel’s violation behaviors, constructs the early-warning index system and carries out monitoring and early warning，construct risk-early warning model of civil aircraft maintenance personnel’s violations, implement the prediction of the risk trend of violation behaviors, to reduce risks of civil aircraft maintenance personnel’s violation behavior effectively, improve the overall safety management level of civil aviation enterprises, improve service quality of civil aviation enterprises. The thesis consists of six parts. The first part expounds the purpose and significance of the research, and further determines the research contents and methods based on the review of relevant research at home and abroad. The second part defines the concepts of civil aircraft maintenance personnel, civil aircraft maintenance personnel violation behavior, civil aircraft maintenance personnel violation behavior risk and so on, expounds risk-early warning theory. The third part identifies key risk factors of civil aircraft maintenance personnel's violation behavior, including the selection of risk factor identification method of violation behavior of civil aircraft maintenance personnel, the application of grounded theory and Human Factors 2This study is supported by Humanities and Social Sciences of Ministry of Education Planning Fund：“Research on Risk Early Warning and Control of Unsafe Behavior of Civil Aviation Employees Based on Big Data”（authorized number: 18YJA630076） III Analysis and Classification System-Maintenance Extension(HFACS-ME). The fourth part carries out the risk monitoring and early warning of violation behavior of aircraft maintenance personnel, design the early-warning index system of risk of violation behavior of civil aircraft maintenance personnel, screen the key early-warning indicators, determines the meaning and threshold of indicators that are consistent with the reality and conducive to understanding, achieves monitoring and early-warning. In fifth part, through the comparison of early-warning models, Markov Chain is selected to construct the risk early-warning model of civil aircraft maintenance personnel's violation behavior. In view of the risk early-warning model, puts forward the countermeasures to control the violation behavior of civil aircraft maintenance personnel. The sixth part summarizes the conclusions and the main innovation points of this thesis, sums up the limitations of the research, and proposes the expansion of the follow-up research. The main innovations of this thesis are summed up: the risk early-warning index system of violation behavior of civil aircraft maintenance personnel is designed to implement monitoring and early-warning target key early-warning indicators. A risk- warning model of violation behavior of civil aircraft maintenance personnel' was constructed, and the trend of risk change of civil aircraft maintenance personnel's violation behavior was predicted. Keywords: Civil aviation maintenance personnel, Violation behavior, Risk identification, Risk-warning indicators, Risk forecast and early-warning IV 目 录 摘要 ........................................................................................................................... I Abstract ...................................................................................................................... II 第1章 绪论 ................................................................................................................. 1 1.1 研究目的和意义 .............................................................................................................. 1 1.1.1 研究目的 ............................................................................................................... 1 1.1.2 研究意义 ............................................................................................................... 2 1.2 国内外研究现状综述 ...................................................................................................... 3 1.2.1 民航机务维修人员违章行为的相关研究 ............................................................ 3 1.2.2 不安全行为预警的相关研究 ................................................................................ 5 1.3 研究内容及方法 .............................................................................................................. 8 1.3.1 研究内容 ............................................................................................................... 8 1.3.2 研究方法 ............................................................................................................... 9 第2章 概念界定及理论基础 ................................................................................... 11 2.1概念界定 ......................................................................................................................... 11 2.1.1 民航机务维修人员 ...................................