X航标处固定标志养护项目是指该航标处相关部门根据当前航标处队 伍结构、航标场地和装备情况，按照《海区航标维护质量考核标准》、《海 区航标固定建（构）筑物维护》、《海区航标维护作业管理规则》等相关 工作要求，对辖区内的固定标志进行针对性养护。由于大多数固定标志都 处于恶劣复杂的海上环境，而且当前X航标处固定标志养护项目面临着队 伍年龄结构老化、养护场地和人员不足的局面，因此，X航标处在严格按照 航标养护工艺及流程的基础上，最大限度地保证航标的养护质量，这就决 定了该航标处固定标志养护项目具有较大的风险性。做好该项目的风险管 理工作，必须将各个阶段的风险准确识别出来并对症下药，采取有效合理 的评估方法和应对措施，保障项目的顺利开展。 本文在对国内外航标养护项目风险管理资料检索分析的基础上，结合X 航标处固定标志养护项目的背景、性质和主要特点，运用德尔菲风险识别 方法识别出该项目具有外部、质量、作业、进度、成本等五大因素影响项 目施工，从风险发生的可能性和最终影响程度两个角度出发，采用风险矩 阵的评估方法对识别出来的五大风险进行风险评估，最终得出作业风险为 极高风险，质量风险和外部风险为高风险，进度风险为中等风险，成本风 险为低风险。X航标处根据当前该航标处固定标志养护项目的评估结果和实 际情况，采用风险防范措施，应对作业风险，采用风险控制措施，应对质 量风险和进度风险，采用风险规避和转移措施，应对外部风险，采用风险 接受措施，应对成本风险。 通过将风险管理的理论和方法运用到X航标处固定标志养护项目中， 实现对该项目的系统性研究，从而不断总结适合X航标处固定标志养护项 II 目风险管理的研究方法，希望可以给后面各航标处固定标志养护项目的运 行提供一定的参考价值。 关键词：航标固定标志养护项目风险管理 III STUDYOFRISKMANAGEMENTINXAIDSTO NAVIGATIONDEPARTMENTPROJECTOFFIXED MARKINGMAINTENANCE ABSTRACT ThemaintenanceprojectoffixedsignsofXnavigationmarkofficerefers totherelevantdepartmentsofthenavigationmarkofficemaintainthefixed signsintheareaaccordingtotheteamstructure,siteandequipmentofthe currentnavigationmarkoffice,thequalityassessmentstandardforthe maintenanceofseaareanavigationmarks,themaintenanceofseaarea navigationmarkfixedbuildings,themanagementrulesforthemaintenanceof seaareanavigationmarksandotherrelevantworkrequirements.Becausemost ofthefixedsignsareintheharshandcomplexenvironmentatsea,atthesame time,thecurrentmaintenanceprojectofthefixedsignsatXnavigationmark officeisfacingthesituationofagingagestructureoftheteam,insufficient maintenancesiteandpersonnel.Therefore,Xnavigationmarkofficeisinstrict accordancewiththemaintenancetechnologyandprocessofthenavigationmark toensurethemaintenancequalityofthenavigationmarktothegreatestextent, whichdeterminesthatthemaintenanceprojectofthefixedsignsatthe navigationmarkhasarelativelyhighqualitybigrisk.Todoagoodjobinthe riskmanagementoftheproject,wemustaccuratelyidentifytherisksineach stageandtakeeffectiveandreasonableassessmentmethodsandresponse measurestoensurethesmoothcompletion. Basedontheretrievalandanalysisofriskmanagementdataofdomestic andforeignnavigationmarkmaintenanceprojects,combinedwiththe IV background,natureandmaincharacteristicsofthemaintenanceprojectoffixed signsatXnavigationmarkoffice,thispaperusesdelphiriskidentification methodtoidentifythattheprojecthasfivefactorsthataffecttheproject construction,includingexternal,quality,operation,progressandcost,fromthe possibilityofriskoccurrenceandthefinaldegreeofimpactfromthepointof view,theriskmatrixassessmentmethodisusedtoassessthefiveidentifiedrisks. Finally,theoperationalriskisextremelyhigh,thequalityriskandexternalrisk arehigh,thescheduleriskismedium,andthecostriskislow.Accordingtothe currentassessmentresultsandactualsituationofthemaintenanceprojectofthe fixedsignsofthenavigationmarkoffice,Xnavigationmarkofficeadoptsrisk preventionmeasurestodealwithoperationrisks,adoptsriskcontrolmeasuresto dealwithqualityrisksandschedulerisks,adoptsriskavoidanceandtransfer measurestodealwithexternalrisks,adoptsriskacceptancemeasurestodeal withthecostrisks. Throughthesystematicresearchonthemaintenanceprojectoffixedsigns ofXnavigationmarkoffice,thepracticalapplicationofthetheoryandmethod ofprojectriskmanagementtothewholeprojectiscarriedout,andtheresearch methodssuitableforthemaintenanceprojectoffixedsignsofXnavigation markofficeareconstantlysummarized,hopingtoprovideacertainreference valuefortheoperationofthemaintenanceprojectoffixedsignsoflater navigationaidsoffices. KEYWORDS:Navigationmark;Fixedsigns；Maintenance; Project；Riskmanagement; V 目录 摘要...........................................................................................................................................I ABSTRACT............................................................................................................................III 第一章导论.........................................................................................................................1 1.1选题背景及意义...........................................................................................................1 1.1.1选题背景.............................................................................................................1 1.1.2研究意义.............................................................................................................2 1.2国内外航标养护项目风险管理研究现状...................................................................3 1.2.1国外航标养护项目风险管理研究现状.............................................................3 1.2.2国内航标养护项目风险管理研究现状.............................................................5 1.2.3研究综述.............................................................................................................6 1.3论文内容和研究方法...................................................................................................6 1.3.1论文内容.............................................................................................................6 1.3.2研究方法.............................................................................................................7 1.4论文框架.......................................................................................................................7 第二章X航标处固定标志养护项目的风险识别.................................................................9 2.1X航标处固定标志养护项目概述................................................................................9 2.1.1X航标处固定标志养护项目的背景..................................................................9 2.1.2X航标处固定标志养护项目的性质................................................................10 2.1.3X航标处固定标志养护项目的主要特点........................................................10 2.2X航标处固定标志养护项目风险识别方法的选择..................................................13 2.2.1项目风险识别方法简介...................................................................................13 2.2.2X航标处固定标志养护项目风险识别方法的选择依据................................15 2.3X航标处固定标志养护项目风险识别步骤..............................................................15 2.4X航标处固定标志养护项目风险识别结果分析......................................................17 第三章X航标处固定标志养护项目的风险评估...............................................................22 3.1X航标处固定标志养护项目风险评估方法的选择..................................................22 3.1.1项目风险评估方法...........................................................................................22 VI 3.1.2X航标处固定标志养护项目风险评估方法的选择依据................................23 3.2X航标处固定标志养护项目风险评估步骤..............................................................23 3.2.1X航标处固定标志养护项目风险概率分值设定............................................23 3.2.2X航标处固定标志养护项目风险影响程度分值设定....................................24 3.2.3X航标处固定标志养护项目风险矩阵设定....................................................24 3.2.4X航标处固定标志养护项目风险等级设定....................................................24 3.2.5X航标处固定标志养护项目风险评估执行....................................................25 3.3X航标处固定标志养护