I 摘要 房地产行业的调控政策从2017年以来越来越严，“限购、限贷、限售、限价” 等调控措施让房地产企业面临的生存压力日益增大。虽然房地产去库存的任务如 今已经基本完成，但是房地产企业未来开发的积极性却不再。很多中小房地产企 业会在这次“洗牌”中湮灭，即使是大型的房地产企业也会元气大伤。那么如何 活下去，并且能长期持续的发展下去，是房地产企业目前需要重点关注的问题。 很多开发企业开始重视企业的持续发展，这就需要因地制宜的建立项目后评 估体系。从已完成的项目中不断总结经验和教训，将前期决策的预期目标与项目 开发后的最终结果进行系统的、客观的对比。由此可判定各项财务指标、经济指 标、技术指标是否合理，为以后的项目开发吸取经验，避免以后的开发项目在同 样的问题上重蹈覆辙，提升房地产项目开发决策的科学化水平。 本文在梳理了Y项目开发情况的基础上，首先分析了后评估体系的理论知识 和相关文献，阐述了后评估的方法与要素。其次，介绍了Y项目的背景情况与项 目可行性报告的预计内容和项目实际开发的利润情况，确定了分析的目标。再次， 重点对Y项目收入中的住宅、商业楼、地下车库等不同业态的销售情况进行了分 析。开发成本、管理费用、市场费用和财务费用，以及税收等对利润有直接影响 的因素进行了分析。然后对利润有间接影响因素的情况也进行了差异分析，指出 了开发过程中存在的问题。最后，对存在的问题提出了改进措施。 关键词：房地产项目后评估体系 杜邦分析 收入的后评估 总投资的后评估 ABSTRACT II ABSTRACT Since 2017, the regulation policies of the real estate industry have become more and more strict. The real estate enterprises are facing increasing pressure to survive due to the regulation measures of "purchase restriction, loan restriction, sale restriction and price limitation". Although the task of real estate destocking has been basically completed, the enthusiasm of real estate enterprises for future development is no longer. Many small and medium-sized real estate enterprises will be in this "shuffle" in the annihilation, even the large real estate enterprises will be weakened. So how to live, and can continue to develop for a long time, is the real estate enterprises need to focus on the problem. Many development enterprises begin to pay attention to the sustainable development of enterprises, which needs to establish a project evaluation system according to local conditions. From the completion of the project to continue to summarize the experience and lessons, the early decision of the expected goals and the final results of the project after the development of a systematic and objective comparison .Thus determine whether the financial indicators, economic indicators, technical indicators are reasonable, for the future project development to learn experience, to avoid future development projects in the same problem, to improve the scientific level of real estate project development decision. On the basis of combing the development situation of project Y, firstly this paper analyzes the theoretical knowledge and relevant literature of post-evaluation system, and expounds the methods and elements of post-evaluation. Secondly, it introduces the background of project Y, the estimated content of the feasibility report of the project and the profit of the actual development of the project, and determines the objective of the analysis. Thirdly, the sales of different types of business in project Y, such as residential buildings, commercial buildings and underground garages, are analyzed. The factors which have direct influence on profit, such as development cost, management expense, marketing expense and financial expense, and tax are analyzed. Then the difference analysis of the indirect influence factors of profit is also carried out and the problems in the development process are pointed out. Finally, some improvement measures are put forward. ABSTRACT III Keywords: Real estate post-evaluation system，Dupont analysis, post-earnings evaluation, Post - evaluation of total investment 目录 IV 目录 第一章 绪论 .................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 研究背景 ............................................................................................................ 1 1.1.1 国内外的经济背景 .................................................................................. 1 1.1.2 房地产行业的发展现状 .......................................................................... 1 1.2研究意义与方法 ................................................................................................. 2 1.2.1 研究意义 .................................................................................................. 2 1.2.2研究方法 ................................................................................................... 2 1.3研究内容与框架 ................................................................................................. 3 1.3.1 研究内容 .................................................................................................. 3 1.3.2 研究框架 .................................................................................................. 4 第二章 理论基础和文献综述 ........................................................................................ 5 2.1 项目前评估的概述 ............................................................................................ 5 2.1.1项目前评估的内容 ................................................................................... 5 2.1.2项目前评估的作用 ................................................................................... 5 2.2 项目后评估的理论 ............................................................................................ 6 2.2.1项目后评估的概述 ................................................................................... 6 2.2.2项目后评估的方法 ................................................................................... 6 2.2.3项目后评估的时点与要素 ....................................................................... 7 2.3财务分析的概述 ................................................................................................. 8 2.3.1报表分析的方法 ....................................................................................... 8 2.3.2杜邦分析法 ............................................................................................... 9 2.4国内外的研究现状 ........................................................................................... 10 2.4.1国外研究现状 ......................................................................................... 10 2.4.2国内研究现状 ......................................................................................... 11 第三章 J企业Y项目的概况 ....................................................................................... 13 3.1 J企业背景与战略规划 ..................................................................................... 13 3.2 Y项目公司简介 ............................................................................................... 14 3.3 投资环境的分析 .............................................................................................. 15 3.3.1 环境分析与市场分析 ............................................................................ 15 3.3.2 项目定位 ................................................................................................ 18 目录 V 3.3.3 Y项目的SWOT分析 ............................................................................ 20 3.4投资估算与融资计划 ....................................................................................... 21 3.5交付与售后服务 ............................................................................................... 24 3.6 项目财务评价与建议 ...................................................................................... 24 3.7 Y项目利润实际情况 ....................................................................................... 25 3.8本章小结 ........................................................................................................... 28 第四章 Y项目的收益后评估研究 .......................................