-I- 摘要 华能曹妃甸港口有限公司隶属于国内煤电装机容量最大的发电企业中国华能集 团公司，是该集团“煤、路、港、航、电”战略的重要一环，其运营管理的华能曹 妃甸港区5000万吨/年煤码头工程于2017年10月进入生产试运，截至2018年8月， 港口吞吐量突破1000万吨。从华能曹妃甸港周边煤炭港口的经营形势看，当前环渤 海煤炭港口能力已出现过剩，华能曹妃甸港将面临激烈的竞争，因此准确预测港口 运营初期的煤炭物流需求，并在需求预测的基础上结合港口特点，制定相应的经营 策略对于提升华能曹妃甸港的竞争力具有重要意义。 本文通过定量和定性相结合的方式对华能曹妃甸港运营初期的吞吐量进行了合 理预测，并为港口提出了合理的煤炭物流发展策略。首先，本文介绍了选题背景与 研究意义，查阅了国内外相关文献资料，提出研究内容与方法；其次，介绍了本文 的相关概念及理论基础，包括港口煤炭物流内涵、预测模型概况以及比较分析等； 第三，从华能曹妃甸港的基本概况、外部环境以及行业发展趋势等对角度企业发展 环境进行分析；第四，建立组合预测模型对华能集团公司2018年-2020年的下水煤 采购量进行了定量预测，在定量预测的基础上结合定性分析，预测分析华能曹妃甸 港2018年-2020年的煤炭物流需求；最后，结合港口特点提出华能曹妃甸港的煤炭 物流发展策略及建议。 关键词：华能曹妃甸港；煤炭物流；需求预测；发展策略 燕山大学工商管理硕士学位论文 -II- Abstract HuanengCaofeidianPortCo.,Ltd(HCP)isaffiliatedtoChinaHuanengGroupCo., Ltd,whichisthelargestcoalandelectricitygeneratingenterpriseinChina,HCPisan importantpartofHuanengGroup'sstrategyof"coal,road,port,navigationandelectricity". HuanengCaofeidianPort’s50milliontons/yearcoalwharfprojectwhichisoperatedby HCPhasenteredproductionandcommissioninginOctober2017,theportthroughput exceeded10milliontonsasofAugust2018.ThecurrentcapacityoftheBohaiSeacoal porthasbecomeexcessivejudgingfromtheoperationsituationofthecoalportsaround HCP,whichmakesitfaceafiercecompetition.Thus,accuratelypredictingthecoal logisticsdemandintheinitialstageofportoperationandmakingcorrespondingbusiness strategiesonthebasisofdemandforecastingandportcharacteristicsisofgreat significanceforenhancingthecompetitivenessofHCP. ThethroughputoftheinitialstageofoperationinHCPwasreasonablypredicted throughthecombinationofquantitativeandqualitativemethodsandareasonable developmentstrategyofcoallogisticsfortheportisputforwardinthispaper.Firstly,he backgroundandsignificanceofthetopicwasintroduced,relevantliteraturesathomeand abroadwereconsulted,researchcontentsandmethodswereputforward.secondly,the relevantconceptsandtheoreticalbasisofthispaperwereintroduced,includingthe connotationofcoallogisticsintheport,thegeneralsituationofpredictionmodeland comparativeanalysis;thirdly,thedevelopmentenvironmentofHCPwasanalyzedfrom theperspectiveofbasicsituation,theexternalenvironmentandthedevelopmenttrendof theindustry.fourthly,acombinedforecastingmodelisestablishedtoforecastthequantity ofcoalpurchasedfromHuanengGroupin2018-2020,thecoallogisticsofHCPin 2018-2020wasforecastedonthebasisofquantitativeforecastingandqualitative analysis.Finally,thepaperputsforwardthecountermeasuresandsuggestionsforthe developmentofcoallogisticsofHCPwasputforwardcombiningwiththecharacteristics ofHCP. Abstract -III- Keywords:HuanengCaofeidianPort,coallogistics,demandforecasting,development strategy 目录 -V- 目录 摘要....................................................................................................................................I ABSTRACT.........................................................................................................................II 第1章绪论......................................................................................................................1 1.1选题背景与研究意义...............................................................................................1 1.1.1选题背景...........................................................................................................1 1.1.2研究意义...........................................................................................................1 1.2国内外研究现状......................................................................................................2 1.2.1国外研究现状...................................................................................................2 1.2.2国内研究现状...................................................................................................4 1.3研究内容与方法......................................................................................................6 1.3.1研究内容...........................................................................................................6 1.3.2研究方法...........................................................................................................7 第2章相关概念及理论基础...............................................................................................9 2.1港口煤炭物流内涵..................................................................................................9 2.1.1物流与物流管理概念.......................................................................................9 2.1.2港口物流的概念及功能...................................................................................9 2.1.3港口煤炭物流概念.........................................................................................11 2.2预测模型概述........................................................................................................12 2.2.1灰色预测模型..................................................................................................12 2.2.2指数平滑预测模型..........................................................................................12 2.2.3线性回归预测模型..........................................................................................13 2.3预测模型比较........................................................................................................13 2.4本章小结................................................................................................................14 第3章华能曹妃甸港煤炭物流概况及环境分析..............................................................15 3.1华能曹妃甸港概况.................................................................................................15 3.1.1港口工艺系统.................................................................................................16 3.1.2港口集疏运系统.............................................................................................16 燕山大学工商管理硕士学位论文 -VI- 3.2华能曹妃甸港煤炭物流分析................................................................................17 3.2.1港口腹地情况.................................................................................................17 3.2.2港口生产现状.................................................................................................18 3.3华能曹妃甸港企业环境分析................................................................................18 3.3.1新建同类港口的威胁.....................................................................................19 3.3.2特高压及进口煤的替代.................................................................................19 3.3.3上下游的议价能力.........................................................................................20 3.3.4北方五港间的竞争.........................................................................................22 3.4煤炭港口行业发展态势........................................................................................23 3.4.1铁水联运继续加强.........................................................................................23 3.4.2货源结构更加丰富.........................................................................................24 3.4.3秦港业务或政策性转移.................................................................................24 3.4.4港口贸易集中度提高.....................................................................................25 3.5本章小结................................................................................................................25 第