现代经济增长理论认为，资本、劳动、技术进步是经济增长的三大动力， 其中技术进步是核心动力，技术进步不仅包括水平和速度的高低，还包括要素 的偏向性。技术进步偏向资本或劳动，对社会收入分配、就业乃至经济发展问 题都会产生显著不同的影响。当前我国经济处于降速换挡阶段，全要素生产率 增速缓慢，劳动生产率持续下滑。由此，从技术进步的要素偏向角度出发，对 经济增长动力及动力如何转换等问题进行深入研究显得格外重要。 本文以新古典经济增长理论、技术进步偏向性理论、内生经济增长理论、 经济成长阶段理论为研究基础。首先，在技术进步存在偏向性的前提下，设计 改进后的CES生产函数，并建立经济增长动力贡献分析模型，剖析1991-2018 年各增长动力拉动青海省GDP增长的贡献。其次，根据求解结果，结合青海省 经济发展实际情况和相关经济发展理论，找出动力转换过程中的关键点。最后， 结合本文研究视角，选取技术进步、技术进步偏向、产业结构三个指标对青海 省全要素生产率（TFP）进行回归分析。研究发现：（1）1991-1997年间青海 省技术进步偏向指数基本上小于零，即技术进步偏向劳动。1998-2018年间，技 术进步表现为资本偏向特征。（2）1991-2018年间青海省主要是靠资本投入来 驱动经济发展。这种驱动模式出现了很多弊端，阻碍了青海省经济的可持续发 展，经济增长动力由要素、投资驱动转换成创新驱动尤为重要和迫切。（3）经 济增长动力转换的关键落在了提高全要素生产率身上，提升TFP水平能加快经 济动力的转换。（4）外商直接投资、第二、三产业产值占GDP比重和R＆D 支出对全要素生产率呈现正向影响，提高相关值能够有效促进TFP增长；而技 术进步偏向对全要素生产率产生了负向影响，即制约了TFP的提升。 针对经济增长动力转化的关键——全要素生产率的影响因素，结合青海省 实际，从引导技术进步偏向、加强自主创新、加大对外开放、合理配置资源以 及优化产业结构五个方面提出促进青海省全要素生产率提升以及加快经济增长 动力转化的具体措施办法，使青海省经济发展向高质量不断迈进。 关键词：技术进步偏向，经济增长动力转换，创新驱动，全要素生产率 II RESEARCH ON THE TRANSITION OF QINGHAI PROVINCE'S ECONOMIC GROWTH DRIVE FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS Abstract Modern economic growth theory believes that capital, labor, and technological progress are the three major driving forces of economic growth. Among them, technological progress is the core driving force. Technological progress includes not only the level and speed of factors, but also the bias of factors. Technological progress is biased toward capital or labor, and it will have significantly different impacts on social income distribution, employment and even economic development. At present, China's economy is in the stage of downshifting, and the growth rate of total factor productivity is slow, and labor productivity continues to decline. Therefore, from the perspective of the elements of technological progress, it is particularly important to conduct in-depth research on issues such as the driving force for economic growth and how to convert it. This article is based on the theory of neoclassical economic growth, the theory of technological progress preference, the theory of new economic growth, and the theory of economic growth stages. First of all, under the premise of technological advancement, the improved CES production function is designed, and an analysis model of the economic growth momentum contribution is established to analyze the contribution of each growth momentum to the GDP growth of Qinghai Province from 1991 to 2018. Secondly, according to the solution results, combined with the actual situation of economic development in Qinghai Province and related economic development theories, find out the key points in the process of power conversion. Finally, based on the research perspective of this paper, the three factors of technological progress, technological progress bias, and industrial structure are selected for regression analysis of TFP in Qinghai Province. The research finds that: III (1) from 1991 to 1997, the technological advancement bias index of Qinghai Province was basically less than zero, that is, technological progress favored labor. From 1998 to 2018, technological progress was characterized by capital bias. (2) From 1991 to 2018, Qinghai Province mainly relied on capital investment to drive economic development. There are many disadvantages to this driving mode, which hinders the sustainable development of Qinghai Province's economy. It is particularly important and urgent to transform the driving force of economic growth from factors and investment to innovation. (3) The key to the transformation of economic growth power lies in improving the total factor productivity. Increasing the level of TFP can accelerate the transformation of economic power. (4) Foreign direct investment, the proportion of the output value of the secondary and tertiary industries in GDP and R&D expenditure have a positive impact on total factor productivity. Increasing the relevant value can effectively promote the growth of TFP; and the bias of technological progress has a negative impact on total factor productivity, which restricts the promotion of total factor productivity. Aiming at the key to the transformation of economic growth power—the influencing factors of total factor productivity and combining with the actual situation of Qinghai Province, we propose to promote Qinghai Province from five aspects: guiding technological progress bias, strengthening independent innovation, increasing opening up, rationally allocating resources, and optimizing industrial structure. The improvement of total factor productivity and specific measures to accelerate the transformation of the driving force for economic growth have made Qinghai's economic development continue to move towards high quality. KeyWords: bias of technological progress, transformation of driving force for economic growth, innovation driving, total factor productivity IV 目 录 中文摘要 ................................................. I Abstract ................................................. II 第一章 绪论 .............................................. 1 1.1 研究背景与意义 .............................................. 1 1.1.1 研究背景 ............................................... 1 1.1.2 研究意义 ............................................... 2 1.2 研究内容与结构 .............................................. 3 1.2.1 研究思路与方法 ......................................... 3 1.2.2 研究结构及内容 ......................................... 6 1.3 研究重难点及可能创新点 ...................................... 7 1.3.1 研究重难点 ............................................. 7 1.3.2 研究可能创新点 ......................................... 7 第二章 相关概念、理论基础及文献综述 ...................... 9 2.1 相关概念及内涵 .............................................. 9 2.1.1 经济增长及经济增长动力 ................................. 9 2.1.2 技术进步及技术进步偏向 ................................. 9 2.1.3 全要素生产率（TFP） ................................... 10 2.2 理论基础 ................................................... 10 2.2.1 新古典经济增长理论 .................................... 10 2.2.2 内生经济增长理论 ...................................... 11 2.2.3 技术进步偏向理论 ...................................... 12 2.2.4 经济成长阶段理论 ...................................... 12 2.2.5 创新与创新驱动理论 .................................... 13 2.3 国内外研究现状 ............................................. 14 V 2.3.1 国外研究现状 .......................................... 14 2.3.2 国内研究现状 .......................................... 19 2.3.4 研究述评 .............................................. 22 第三章 技术进步偏向视角下青海省经济增长动力因素分析 ..... 24 3.1 度量方法选取和计量模型设定 ................................. 24 3.1.1 度量方法的选取 ........................................ 24 3.1.2 计量模型的设定 ........................................ 25 3.2 指标筛选及数据来源说明 ..................................... 28 3.2.1 总产出的选取 .......................................... 28 3.2.2 劳动投入量的确定 ...................................... 28 3.2.3 资本投入的估计 ........................................ 29 3.2.4 劳动与