I 摘要 二十一世纪，随着中国城市化进程的提速，我国的房地产市场发展迅猛，已然成 为国民经济发展的主要增长点。房地产行业主要特点是资金投入量大、资金流动性慢、 资金周转期长，其发展需要大量的资金作为保障，因而商业银行贷款成为了房地产企 业资金的重要来源。一方面，带给商业银行前所未有的机遇， 使商业银行得以快速 发展；另一方面，也面临着大规模的房地产开发项目带来的巨大风险。商业银行的贷 款主要是“抵押”、“保证”的方式来防范信用风险，甚至有些商行业银行以“信用” 的方式发放贷款，仅依靠较为传统的方式并结合时点的市场行情进行评估，贷款偿还 主要依靠开发项目本身预售和租房款所产生的净现金流，这就导致房地产开发贷款往 往会因为政策导向、市场销售、消费升级等变化无法按期偿还。因此，全面分析房地 产项目风险，制定切实可行的风险控制措施，不仅关系到商业银行利益，也影响着我 国国民经济的健康稳健发展。 本文基于西安市房地产市场的复杂性，结合CA银行房地产开发贷款现状，在CA 银行风险控制、风险偏好的基础上，概述CA银行房地产开发贷款发展情况，以及在 项目评估和贷后管理方面的风险管理现状；其次以C房地产开发贷款项目为例，从 行业地位、财务数据、项目区位、发展前景开展分析，并从多角度对房地产开发贷款 存在的风险剖析，通过财务风险（从偿债能力、盈利能力、营运能力、增长能力）、 市场风险、政策风险等维度进行风险评估；接着从项目自身出发，通过分析项目区位、 项目定位，结合财务净现值（NPV）、内部收益率（IRR）、投资收益率（RIO）、敏感 性分析等维度进行量化分析，对C房地产开发贷款风险控制提出可行的措施；最后， 得出结论，以期待为商业银行房地产开发贷款风险管理提供参考。 关 键 词：房地产开发贷款， 风险控制， 风险管理 ABSTRACT III ABSTRACT In the 21st century, with the acceleration of China's urbanization process, China's real estate market has developed rapidly and has become a major growth point of national economic development. The real estate industry is mainly characterized by large capital input, slow capital liquidity and long capital turnover period, and its development needs a large amount of capital as a guarantee. Therefore, commercial bank loans have become an important source of capital for real estate enterprises. On the one hand, it brings unprecedented opportunities to commercial Banks and enables them to develop rapidly. On the other hand, it also faces huge risks brought by large-scale real estate development projects. Commercial bank loans is mainly "mortgage", "assurance" way to guard against credit risks, and even some business industry bank loans in the form of "credit", rely on a more traditional way of combining point to evaluate market, loan repayment relies mainly on the development of the project itself to booking and net cash flow generated by the rent, this leads to the real estate development loans often because of policy guidance, marketing and consumption upgrade changes can't repay on time. Therefore, the comprehensive analysis of real estate project risks and the formulation of feasible risk control measures are not only related to the interests of commercial Banks, but also affect the healthy and steady development of China's national economy. Based on the complexity of the real estate market in xi 'an city and the current situation of CA bank's real estate development loans, based on CA bank's risk control and risk preference, this paper summarizes the development situation of CA bank's real estate development loans, as well as the current situation of risk management in project evaluation and post-loan management. Second C real estate development loans, for example, from the industry status, financial data, location, development prospect of project analysis, and from multiple perspectives on the risk analysis of real estate development loans, through the financial risk (from the debt paying ability, profit ability, operation ability, growth ability), such as market risk, policy risk dimensions in risk assessment; Then, starting from the project itself, through analyzing the project location and project positioning, and combining the dimensions of financial net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR), return on investment (RIO) and sensitivity analysis, quantitative analysis is carried out to propose feasible measures for the risk control of C real estate development loans. Finally, the conclusion is drawn to 西安电子科技大学硕士学位论文 IV provide reference for the risk management of commercial Banks' real estate development loans.. Keywords: Real estate development loans, Risk control, Risk manageme 目录 目录 摘要 ........................................................................................................................................ I ABSTRACT ........................................................................................................................ III 第一章 绪论 ...................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 研究背景和研究意义 .......................................................................................... 1 1.1.1 研究背景 ................................................................................................... 1 1.1.2 研究意义 ................................................................................................... 2 1.2 国内外研究现状 .................................................................................................. 4 1.2.1 国外研究现状 ........................................................................................... 4 1.2.2 国内研究现状 ........................................................................................... 5 1.2.3 简单评价 ................................................................................................... 8 1.3 研究内容与研究方法 .......................................................................................... 8 1.3.1 研究内容 ................................................................................................... 8 1.3.2 研究方法 ................................................................................................... 8 1.4 研究思路和研究框架 .......................................................................................... 9 1.4.1 研究思路 ................................................................................................... 9 1.4.2 研究框架 ................................................................................................. 10 第二章 房地产开发贷款风险管理理论基础 ................................................................ 11 2.1 风险与风险管理 ................................................................................................ 11 2.1.1 风险概念及特点 ..................................................................................... 11 2.1.2 风险管理概念 ......................................................................................... 12 2.2 风险管理的过程 ................................................................................................ 12 2.3 房地产开发贷款概念、分类及风险来源 ........................................................ 13 2.3.1 房地产开发贷款概念 ............................................................................. 13 2.3.2 房地产开发贷款的分类 ......................................................................... 13 2.3.3 房地产贷款的风险种类 ......................................................................... 14 2.3.4 房地产开发贷款风险管理经验 ............................................................. 16 2.3.5 国内商业银行房地产开发贷款风险管理主要问题 ............................. 17 第三章 CA银行C房地产开发贷款项目风险管理现状分析 .................................... 19 3.1 CA银行介绍 ..................................................................................................... 19 3.1.1 基本情况 ................................................................................................. 19 3.1.2 组织结构 ................................................................................................. 20 3.1.3 房地产开发贷款风险管理现