摘要 可行性研究是项目投资前期的一项重要内容，是项目投资决策过程中必不可 少的工作程序，它为项目投资决策提供直接的依据。在节能减排的严峻形势下， 棉纺织厂空调能耗和设备能耗过高是困扰企业经营者的一大难题，而分布式供能 就是解决这一难题的新型能源系统。 通过分析某纺织工业园的冷、热、电负荷情况，指出了在该工业园利用天然 气分布式供能系统，既是实现区域内集中供电、制冷供热的需要，又是解决耗电 量巨大、节能的良策之一。首先，通过对项目的研究分析，提出了总体设计方案， 以实际可行性为出发点，完成了系统主要设备的配套选型。再次，介绍并计算了 分布式能源系统的各种经济性指标，建立了财务分析数学模型，从经济角度论证 该分布式能源系统的可行性。结果表明该方案技术经济性良好，且联供系统存在 临界电价和气价，当现有能源价格在临界范围内时，联供系统才具有一定的经济 适用性。针对系统经济性的影响因素做了进一步研究，通过计算分析能源价格体 系、污染物排放税以及向上网售电价格对系统增量投资回收期的影响，发现联供 系统对能源价格体系中的电价、气价变化最为敏感；随着污染物排放税的增加, 联供系统较普通分供系统的经济优势会逐渐显现；且合理的上网售电价格将有利 于改善联供系统的经济性、节能性。最后，阐述了本课题需要采取的几种节能措 施并对环境保护进行了分析，论述了分布式能源冷热电三联供系统在环境保护方 面具有的独特优势。 关键词，纺织工业园；天然气 ；冷热电三联供；可行性研究III ABSTRACT Feasibility study is an important step of initial phase of project investment. It is an indispensable procedure of project investment decision, which furnishes direct evidence for project investment decision. Under the serious situation of energy conservation and emissions reduction, high energy consumption of air conditioning and equipment of the textile factory is a big problem to the enterprise operator, but the distributed energy system is a solution to this problem. Based on the cooling load, thermal load and electrical load features of the textile industry park, it pointes that distributed energy is not only the needs of concentrated supplied, but also the way to solve huge power consumption. Firstly, based on the analysis of this program, the whole designing scheme covers the election design of the equipments. Secondly, it introduced and calculated the various economic indicators of distributed energy system, established a financial analysis mathematical model. From the aspect of economy, it demonstrates the feasibility of distributed energy system. The results show that the technical and economic effect of this system is good, and it points out that the system exists critical electricity and gas prices. When energy prices is in the critical range, the system has a economic applicability. About the influence factors of system efficiency, we made a further research. Through the calculation and analysis of the effect factors on the payback period of investment system, such as energy price system, pollutant emission tax and grid sell electricity price, it turns out the system is more sensitive to the prices change of electricity and gas. With the increase of emission rate, the economic advantages of combined system will appear gradually. A reasonable grid sell electricity price will be beneficial for the efficiency raise of the system. Finally, this article expounds several energy saving measures, it analyzes the importance of environment and the unique advantages of CCHP system. Key words: textile industry park;natural gas;combined cooling-heating-power; feasibility researchIV 目录 第 1 章 绪 论........................................................................................................1 1.1 研究背景.................................................................................................. 1 1.2 国内外分布式冷热电联供系统发展概况和研究现状......................... 2 1.2.1 分布式冷热电三联供国内外发展概况...................................... 2 1.2.2 分布式冷热电三联供国内外研究现状...................................... 4 1.3 课题研究的主要内容............................................................................. 5 第 2 章 项目可行性研究......................................................................................6 2.1 项目可行性研究的基本概念................................................................. 6 2.1.1 项目的含义.................................................................................. 6 2.1.2 可行性研究的含义...................................................................... 6 2.2 可行性研究内容及要求......................................................................... 6 2.2.1 可行性研究包含的内容.............................................................. 6 2.2.2 可行性研究的要求...................................................................... 7 2.2.3 项目必要性分析.......................................................................... 7 2.3 项目投资可行性的研究阶段的划分..................................................... 8 2.3.1 项目投资的周期.......................................................................... 9 2.3.2 可行性研究的阶段划分.............................................................. 9 2.3.3 可行性研究的一般程序.............................................................. 9 2.4 本章小结................................................................................................. 9 第 3 章 工业园项目概述及方案确定................................................................10 3.1 工业园负荷现状分析........................................................................... 10 3.1.1 气象参数.................................................................................... 10 3.1.2 电负荷........................................................................................ 11 3.1.3 冷负荷........................................................................................ 13 3.1.4 热负荷........................................................................................ 14 3.2 项目技术方案的确定........................................................................... 15 3.2.1 运行策略分析............................................................................ 15 3.2.2 技术方案.................................................................................... 15 3.2.3 主要设备选型............................................................................ 17 3.3 建设规划及实施................................................................................... 25V 3.3.1 能源站总体规划........................................................................ 25 3.3.2 项目实施进度............................................................................ 26 3.4 本章小结............................................................................................... 27 第 4 章 该项目分布式能源系统的经济性分析................................................28 4.1 基本设计参数的确定........................................................................... 28 4.2 建立财务分析数学模型....................................................................... 29 4.3 主要经济指标计算............................................................................... 32 4.3.1 静态分析指标............................................................................ 33 4.3.2 动态分析指标............................................................................ 35 4.4 盈亏平衡分析....................................................................................... 38 4.5 敏感性分析........................................................................................... 40 4.6 影响系统经济性的关键因素分析....................................................... 42 4.6.1 价格体系变化的影响................................................................ 42 4.6.2 污染物排放税的影响................................................................ 45 4.6.3 上网售电价格的影响................................................................ 47 4.7 本章小结............................................................................................... 47 第 5 章 综合利用及节能...........................................................