随着中国社会主义市场经济的确立与完善，与之配套的各项措施也逐渐完 备。中国城镇职工的退休制度经历了半个多世纪的实践，为广大退休人口的老年 生活提供了比较有效的保障，而关于退休年龄的规定却长久以来没有进行相应的 改革，过早的退休年龄规定在一定程度上已经影响到了中国未来经济发展的进 程。因此，关于推迟退休年龄的讨论近些年来越来越激烈。 随着经济社会的不断发展，人口预期寿命不断延长，老龄化趋势加剧，正常 的法定退休年龄将导致较高的老年抚养比，养老保险的支付压力持续增加；同时， 中国自上个世纪八十年代开始的人口计划生育政策效应开始凸显，人口红利逐渐 消失，未来劳动力数量不断减少。但是，长期以来，中国城镇职工的退休年龄标 准一直没有更改过，现阶段的退休年龄尤其是女性退休年龄偏低，普遍低于英、 美、德等发达国家，具备进行调整的可能性。在此背景下，关于退休年龄推迟的 呼声日渐增多，多数学者希望通过推迟城镇职工的退休年龄来增加劳动人口数 量，提高劳动人口系数和降低老年抚养比，从而依靠社会养老保险制度自身来减 少养老金支付压力。 本报告从人口预测模型入手，通过设计不同的推迟退休方案，运用定量的分 析来论证中国推迟退休年龄的可行性，旨在通过各项数据指标来说明推迟退休年 龄已经到了必须提上议事日程的阶段，并初步提出了具体实施推迟退休年龄的方 案与措施。 本文共分五个部分， 第一章，推迟退休年龄的相关概念界定和理论综述，提出生命周期理论、代 际交叠模型、退休养老金的数理模型等，为后续研究提供理论基础和指导。 第二章，退休政策的现状及存在的问题，通过分析现行退休制度来发现问题。 第三章，推迟退休年龄的必要性分析，主要从人口规模和人口老龄化、劳动 力供求变化、平衡养老金收支均衡、消除男女职工性别差异、优化老年人力资源 配置等方面来论证推迟退休年龄的必要性。 第四章，推迟退休年龄的可行性分析，包括推迟退休年龄的方案设计、推迟 退休年龄的效应分析、推迟退休年龄三种方案比较及可行性，用大量的数据来论 证推迟退休年龄的可行性。 第五章，推迟退休年龄的结论与政策建议，通过前面的研究得出实施弹性退 休年龄、消除女工人女干部身份差异、男女职工退休年龄差别调整的结论，并为 推迟退休年龄的实施提出了相应的政策建议。 关键词， 推迟退休年龄 弹性退休 可行性 ABSTRACT With the establishment and improvement of China’s socialist market economy, all kinds of supporting measures are being perfected. Chinese urban worker retirement system has been implemented for over half a century and offered effective security for the aging people’s retirement life. However, laws and regulations on retirement age has not been reformed for years and the early retirement has exerted an influence on the future development of China’s economy. Therefore, more and more views on delaying the retirement age are being discussed and debated spiritedly in these years. With the development of economy and society, life expectancy is prolonging and aging population tendency is intensifying, therefore the current retirement age will lead to higher old-age dependency rate and increasing demand for pension. Meanwhile, China’s demographic dividend and future work force are decreasing due to the birth control policy carried out since the 1980s. However, Chinese urban worker retirement age has not been adjusted for many years and the current retirement age, especially women’s, is generally lower than that of the developed countries, such as Britain, American and German. Hence, adjustment is urgently needed and the appeal of delaying retirement age is getting strong. Most of the scholars expect to increase the number and raise the ratio of work force and lower the old-age dependency rate by delaying retirement age, in order to reduce the pressure on pension payments through endowment insurance system itself. This thesis begins with models of population prediction and then designs various programmes of delaying retirement, trying to prove the feasibility of delaying retirement in China. It applies quantitative analysis method and the indicators expound that the delaying of retirement must be raised into the agenda. The thesis also puts forward the preliminary draft and measures for delaying retirement age. This these consists of five chapters: Chapter One: Definitions and theoretical review of delaying retirement, theory of life cycle, overlapping generation model and mathematical model of the retirement pensions, providing theoretical bases and guidance for future study.Chapter Two: Present situation and problems of retiremen policy, analyzing current retirement system to identify its deficiencies. Chapter Three: Analysis of the necessity of delaying retirement age, proving the necessity mainly from the aspects of population size and aging of population, changes in labor supply and demand, balance of pension payments, closing gender gap and distribution of elderly human resourses. Chapter Four: Analysis of the feasibility of delaying retirement age, including the programme design, effect analysis and the comparison of three programmes of delaying retirement. A large amount of data are applied to prove the feasibility. Chapter Five: Conclusions and policy proposals for delaying retirement age. Conclusions are drawn from the above research, containing flexible retirment age, removal of the gap between women workers and women cardres and adjustment of the difference between men’s and women’s retirement ages. Responding policy proposals are also put forward. Key Words: Delaying retirement age Flexible retirement Feasibility目 录 摘要.................................................................................................................................................I Abstract.....................................................................................................................................III 绪论................................................................................................................................................ 1 1 相关概念的界定及理论基础........................................................................................... 5 1.1 相关概念界定............................................................................................................. 5 1.1.1 退休年龄........................................................................................................... 5 1.1.2 推迟退休年龄.................................................................................................. 5 1.1.3 人口老龄化 ...................................................................................................... 5 1.1.4 养老保险制度.................................................................................................. 5 1.2 推迟退休年龄的理论基础 ...................................................................................... 6 1.2.1 生命周期理论.................................................................................................. 6 1.2.2 代际交叠模型.................................................................................................. 7 1.2.3 退休养老金的数理模型 ............................................................................... 8 2 退休政策的现状及存在的问题...................................................................................... 10 2.1 正常退休制度........................................................................................................... 10 2.1.1 法定退休年龄的确定.................................................................................. 10 2.1.2 退休政策实施的现状.................................................................................. 12 2.2 正常退休政策存在的问题 .................................................................................... 13 2.2.1 退休年龄偏低................................................................................................ 13 2.2.2 提前退休严重................................................................................................ 14 2.2.3 男女退休年龄存在差异 ............................................................................. 16 2.2.4 退休年龄法制化程度较低......................................................................... 17 2.2.5 老年人力资本浪费严重 ............................................................................. 17 3 推迟退休