在科技信息如此发达的今天，天气依然难以把握和掌控。随着各行业的飞速发展， 人们风险意识的不断增强，如何规避和分散天气风险成为急需解决的问题，对于天气风 险除了传统意义上的防灾减灾，还有没有办法来改变这种情况，上个世纪 90 年代后期 天气衍生品应运而生，作为一种新的管理风险方式，成为分散和规避天气风险的绝佳工 具。随着天气衍生品在国外的发展与完善，我国投资者开始关注这一新兴的衍生品，强 大的市场需求使得我国推行天气衍生品势在必行。 本文首先对天气衍生品的相关理论进行分析和概述，主要包括目前我国天气风险的 状况及应对策略，以及天气衍生品与天气保险和传统金融衍生品的比较，为下文的研究 做下铺垫。文章主要从理论和现实两个大的方面研究分析我国推行天气衍生品的可行 性，在分析我国推行天气衍生品的理论可行性时，文章首先介绍了目前国内外天气衍生 品市场的发展状况以及我国推行天气衍生品需要解决的问题，接着运用管理学中的 PEST 分析方法，从政治、经济、社会、技术四个方面进行研究分析我国目前推行天气衍生品 的可行性。在分析我国推行天气衍生品的现实可行性时，文章从合约标的物的选取，合 约的具体设计，合约的定价以及具体的应用四个方面进行分析。 文章着重说明了取暖指数，制冷指数等 5 种天气指数，同时结合目前国际上较为成 熟的芝加哥商业交易所（CME）的天气衍生品合约，从标的指数、合约规格、标的城市、 交易模式等要素着手，设计了适合我国的天气期货合约。在天气衍生品的定价方面，文 章共介绍了四种定价方法，蒙特卡罗模拟定价法、均值回复模型定价法、燃烧分析定价 法和Cao和 Wei定价模型，并利用蒙特卡罗模拟定价法对气温指数期货和期权进行定价。 经过对天气衍生品合约设计和定价的分析，说明我国目前在天气衍生品合约的设计和定 价上已经不存在难题。最后以某电力公司为实例具体阐明利用天气衍生品保值避险的运 作机制，说明天气衍生品在实体经济中的运用是可行的。 通过本文的研究得出以下结论，天气衍生品是顺应金融市场发展的新兴产物，对于 各行业管理天气风险起着重要作用，它的出现极大程度上可以满足投资者对规避和分散 天气风险工具的需求。结合我国目前经济金融市场的情况，在宏观经济理论分析上以及 实体经济现实分析上已具备推出的可行性。因此我国在推出天气衍生品时充分利用已拥II 有的后发优势，逐步完善和发展我国的金融衍生品市场，使我国天气衍生品得以在更好 的环境下成功推出。 关键词，天气衍生品，气温指数，定价模型，天气风险，PEST 模型III ABSTRACT In the information technology is so advanced today, the weather is still difficult to grasp and control. With the rapid development of various industries, people's awareness of risk increasing, how to avoid and disperse weather risk has become the urgent problem to solve for the weather risk, in addition to the traditional sense of disaster prevention and reduction, there is no way to change this situationAs of last century, the late 90s weather derivatives, as a new way of risk management, become an excellent tool for dispersing and avoiding weather risk. With the development of weather derivatives in foreign countries, Chinese investors began to pay attention to this emerging derivatives, strong market demand makes our implementation of weather derivatives is imperative. In this paper, firstly the related theory of weather derivatives were analyzed and summarized, including the current weather risk situation and coping strategies, and compare the weather derivatives and weather insurance and traditional financial derivatives, pave the way for the following research. This article mainly from theory and practice two aspects of research and analysis in our country weather derivatives the feasibility of the theoretical analysis on the feasibility of implementing weather derivatives in China, this paper first introduces the current status of domestic and international weather derivatives market development and the need to address the problem of China's implementation of weather derivatives, then utilize the PEST analysis method, from the political, economic Four aspects, society, technical feasibility analysis of China's current implementation of weather derivatives research. After analyzing the feasibility of the implementation of weather derivatives in China, this article from the selection of subject matter of contract, design contract, contract pricing and the specific application of the four aspects of analysis. This paper explains the heating index, refrigeration and other 5 kinds of weather index index, combined with the current more mature international Chicago commodity exchange (CME) weather derivatives contracts, from the underlying index, contract specifications, subject to city, trading patterns and other factors, designed for China's weather in futures contracts. The pricing of weather derivatives, this article has introduced four kinds of pricing methods: Monte Carlo simulation pricing method, the mean reversion model of pricing, pricing and combustion analysis of Cao and Wei pricing model, and simulate the pricing pricing on temperature index futures and options using Monte Carlo. After the weatherIV derivative Analysis of product contract design and pricing, shows that China is in contract design and pricing of weather derivatives does not exist on the problem. Finally, a power company as an example to clarify the operation mechanism of the use of hedging hedging weather derivatives, that the use of weather derivatives in the real economy is feasible. Through the study of this paper draws the following conclusions: weather derivatives is a new product with the development of the financial market, for the industry weather risk management plays an important role, it appears a great extent to meet investor demand to avoid and disperse weather risk tools. Combined with China's current economic and financial market situation, in the analysis of macro economy the theoretical and practical analysis on the real economy has launched the feasibility. So our country in the introduction of weather derivatives use has the advantage, and gradually improve the development of the financial derivatives of China health products market, the weather derivatives in China has been successfully introduced in a better environment. KEY WORDS: weather derivatives, temperature index, pricing model, weather risk, PEST modelV 目 录 摘要..................................................................... I ABSTRACT................................................................ III 第一章 绪论............................................................... 1 一、研究的背景及意义..................................................................................................... 1 二、国内外文献综述......................................................................................................... 1 （一）国外文献综述.................................................................................................. 1 （二）国内文献综述.................................................................................................. 3 三、研究内容框架和研究方法......................................................................................... 4 （一）研究内容框架.................................................................................................. 4 （二）研究方法.......................................................................................................... 5 第二章 天气衍生品相关理论分析............................................. 6 一、天气风险及其应对策略............................................................................................. 6 （一）天气风险.......................................................................................................... 6 （二）天气风险的管理策略...................................................................................... 6 二、天气衍生品与传统金融产品的比较......................................................................... 7 （一）天气衍生品的概念及类型.............................................................................. 7 （二） 天气衍生品与天气保险的比较.................................................................... 8 （三）天气衍生品与传统的金融衍生品之间的比较.............................................. 8 第三章 我国推出天气衍生品的理论可行性分析................................ 10 一、国