可行性研究是对拟建工程项目进行全面的、综合技术经济分析的一种理论和方 法，即对某一建设项目在建设的必要性、技术可行性、经济合理性、实施可能性等 方面进行综合研究，推荐最佳方案，为建设项目的决策和设计任务书的编制、审批 提供科学的依据。目前已在许多国家广泛应用于研究工程建设项目的技术先进性、 经济合理性和建设可能性的分析。 为了全面系统地解决可行性研究推广应用问题，本文结合潍坊港疏港公路建设 这一实践，分析了项目运行环境评估、项目技术评估、项目财务评估等，全面而系 统地论述了该建设项目从计划编制到计划实施、检查、调整的动态过程。 本文通过对潍坊港现有疏港公路交通状况、潍坊港现吞吐量及集疏运方式的调 查以及项目影响区交通现状的调查与分析，获得了大量的数据和图表，作为该项目 建设的实际依据，对该建设项目区的交通量作出了科学的预测，确定建设该疏港公 路的必要性。然后从建设项目的技术标准、路线方案、工程概况、土地利用评述及 工程环境影响等方面对其进行了技术评估，同时又对该项目进行了财务评估，最终 确定该项目建设的可行性。 关键词，可行性研究，运行环境评估，技术评估，财务评估Feasibility study on the construction of Weifang Hong Kong port road Abstract Feasibility Study for the proposed project is to conduct a comprehensive, integrated technical and economic analysis of a theory and method, that is of a construction project in the construction of the need, technical feasibility, economic reasonableness and other aspects of the implementation of the possibility of comprehensive study to recommend the best option, the decision-making for construction projects and design preparation of the book, providing a scientific basis for approval. In many countries is now widely used in research projects of the technical nature of construction projects, economic rationality and the possibility of building analysis. In order to comprehensively and systematically promote the use of a feasibility study to solve the problem, this paper Weifang Port highway construction in Hong Kong this practice, analysis of operating environment of the project assessment, technical assessment of the project, project financial evaluation, a comprehensive and systematic exposition of the construction project from planning to the implementation of the scheme, inspection, adjustment of the dynamic process. Based on the existing Hong Kong Weifang Port road traffic conditions, Weifang is the throughput of Hong Kong and set investigate the way and project the impact of the Regional Traffic Investigation and Analysis, access to a large number of data and charts, as the actual construction of the project based on the construction project the traffic volume made a scientific prediction, construction of the port to determine the need for roads. And from the technical standards for construction projects, route programs, engineering profiles, land-use comment and engineering areas such as environmental impact of its technical assessment, while at the same time the project was carried out financial assessment, finally determine the feasibility of the project construction. Key words: feasibility studies, operation of environmental assessment, technology assessment, financial assessment目 录 1 绪论 ................................................................1 1.1 研究背景和选题意义 ............................................... 1 1.2 文献综述 ......................................................... 2 1.3 本文的研究内容和方法 ............................................. 4 1.4 本文的创新点和不足 ............................................... 5 2 项目简介与分析.......................................................6 2.1 潍坊港概况 ....................................................... 6 2.1.1 潍坊港现状 ................................................... 6 2.1.2 潍坊港发展规划 ............................................... 6 2.1.3 潍坊港集疏运规划 ............................................. 7 2.2 项目简介 ......................................................... 8 2.2.1 项目影响范围分析 ............................................. 8 2.2.2 项目影响区划分 ............................................... 9 2.2.3 项目区域的社会经济现状及发展规划 ............................. 9 2.2.4 项目区域的交通运输现状与发展规划 ............................ 14 2.2.5 建设条件 .................................................... 20 3 项目运行环境评估分析................................................25 3.1 潍坊港现有疏港公路交通状况分析 .................................. 25 3.2 潍坊港现状吞吐量及集疏运方式调查 ................................ 26 3.3 项目影响区交通现状调查与分析 .................................... 28 3.3.1 调查综述 .................................................... 28 3.3.2 调查资料分析 ................................................ 29 3.4 交通量预测 ...................................................... 32 3.4.1 区域未来年综合运输网 ........................................ 32 3.4.2 港口公路集疏运量生成交通量预测 .............................. 32 3.4.3 项目影响区趋势及诱增交通量预测 .............................. 38 4 项目技术评估分析....................................................40 4.1 技术标准 ........................................................ 40 4.1.1 交通量预测结果 .............................................. 40 4.1.2 技术标准的确定 .............................................. 40 4.2 路线方案 ........................................................ 43 4.2.1 路线方案选择的基本原则 ...................................... 43 4.2.2 路线方案起终点论证 .......................................... 43 4.2.3 建设方案的主要控制因素 ...................................... 45 4.2.4 路线方案比选 ................................................ 46 4.3 主要工程概况 .................................................... 50 4.3.1 路基工程 .................................................... 51 4.3.2 路面工程 .................................................... 53 4.3.3 桥涵工程 .................................................... 534.3.4 交叉工程 .................................................... 54 4.3.5 交通工程及沿线设施 .......................................... 54 4.4 土地利用评述及工程环境影响分析 .................................. 55 4.4.1 土地利用评述 ................................................ 55 4.4.2 拟建项目工程环境影响 ........................................ 56 4.4.3 施工建设期对环境的影响 ...................................... 57 4.4.4 项目运营期对环境的影响 ...................................... 58 4.4.5 减少工程对环境不利影响的对策 ................................ 58 4.5 实施方案 ........................................................ 60 4.5.1 建设工期安排与实施计划 ...................................... 60 4.5.2 资金使用计划 ................................................ 61 4.5.3 项目法人 .................................................... 61 4.5.4 工程招投标 .................................................. 62 5 项目财务评估分析....................................................63 5.1 基本数据和参数 .................................................. 63 5.1.1 基本数据 .................................................... 63 5.1.2 主要参数 .................................................... 64 5.2 投资估算........................................................ 65 5.3 经济效益........................................................ 66 5.3.1 经济效益计算 ................................................ 66 5.3.2 经济效益费用流量分析 ........................................ 69 5.3.3 敏感性分析 .................................................. 73 6 结论 ...............................................................74