随着我国社会经济技术的飞速发展和人民生活水平的不断提高，一方面， 小汽车消费逐渐成为一种趋势，预计在本世纪二十年代，我国将进入“汽车时 代”；另一方面，城际间交流和合作不断加深，人员流动日益频繁，未来城际间 小汽车出行总量和比重将不断增大。城际间小汽车出行的增加，造成城际间交 通拥挤，能源消耗增长，交通用地紧张，交通安全事故增多，环境污染严重等 一系列问题的产生。本文运用系统工程学,交通工程学,交通运输工程学,运筹学 等理论，综合考虑交通、能源、用地、安全、环境等因素，提出解决未来城际 间小汽车出行问题的一种新的交通运输方式——轨道式特快高速公路。 本文主要从旅客角度，研究轨道式特快高速公路的可行性。从小汽车专用 高速公路客运需求分析入手，对城际间旅客出行基本特征、出行影响因素以及 SP 调查情况进行详细论述。接着进行对比研究，将轨道式特快高速公路与高速 铁路、高速公路客运、航空运输三种运输方式作对比，运用模糊综合评判法建 立模型，分析各运输方式相对重要性，得出不同 OD 段旅客选择四种运输方式的 排序结果。紧接着，论述轨道式特快高速公路客运需求方式分担问题，阐述交 通方式分担理论发展趋势、出行时间价值研究等问题；在此基础上，运用效用 理论和 MNL 理论建立城际间交通方式分担模型；并以长沙、北京、上海、广州 四个城市不同 OD 段作为应用案例，借助交通规划相关软件，演算了交通方式分 担过程，得出不同 OD 段四种交通方式分担比例。 报告最后从旅客角度对轨道式特快高速公路可行性进行了综合评价，比较 得出小汽车专用高速铁路基本可行，可以进行更深入的研究。同时对小汽车专 用高速公路其它相关研究进行了一定的探讨。 关键词，交通运输方式；轨道式特快高速公路；旅客角度；可行性研究；对比 研究；方式分担ABSTRACT With the rapid development of community economic ＆ technology and the constant improvement of the level of living in our country，on the one hand，the consumption of private car will gradually become a trend， we will get into“The Cars’Times”in 20s this century；on the other hand， the communication and cooperation between cities will go more and more deeply，and people visiting each other between cities will become more and more frequently，what’S more，the total and proportion traveling by private car will increase constantly．Because of the growing use of private car between cities，it producee a series of problem，such as traffic jam between cities，energy consumption sharpen，traffic land decreased， traffic accident increased， environment pollution aggravated and so on．Using some theories such as System Engineering，Traffic Engineering， Traffic and Transportion Engineering，Operational Research and so on， and considering comprehensively traffic，energy，land，traffic accident， environment etc，This thesis advances a new transportion mode --- Special High-speed Railway of Car to solve the problem of private car using between cities． The feasibility study of Special High-speed Railway of Car is reseached mainly on passengers’standpoint in this thesis．It starts with passenger transport demand about Special High-speed Railway of Car，and discusses the basic characters，factors of trip influence and SP survey between cities in detail．Next，comparative study is taked，this thesis evaluates Special High-speed Railway of Car compared with high-speed railway，passenger transport in freeway，airline transportation，and establishes model by Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation，and then analysises the importance of each kinds of transportation ， finally gaines the compositor result about different OD segment of four kinds of transportation which are chosen by passengers．This thesis described the problems of mode split of passenger transport demand about Special High-speed Railway of Car，expatiates on the the trend of traffic mode split theory and the value of trip time．Based on these，Utility Theory and MNL are used to create traffic mode split model between cities；and six OD segment among Changsha，Beijing，Shanghai and Guangzhou is used to research the cases. With the help of some transportation software，thisthesis performs the process of traffic mode split，finally，a proportion about six OD segment of four kinds of transportion is gained． In the end，the thesis evaluates synthetically the feasibility of Special High-speed Railway of Car on passegers’standpoint，compared with the others，it proves that Special High-speed Railway of Car is feasible in the main，it may have more deep researches next．At the same time this thesis discusses other researches about Special High-speed Railway of Car． Key words，Traffic and transportation mode；Special High-speed Railway of Car；Passegers’standpoint；Feasibility study；Comparative study； mode split目 录 摘要 ................................................................................................................I ABSTRACT.. I I 第一章 绪论 .........................................................................................................1 1.1 轨道式特快高速公路含义 ..........................................................................1 1.2 研究背景 ....................................................................................................2 1.3 问题的提出.................................................................................................5 1.4 国内外相关研究 .........................................................................................6 1.5 研究目的及意义 .......................................................................................11 1.6 研究思路及结构安排................................................................................12 第二章 轨道式特快高速公路客运需求总体分析 ...............................................15 2.1 客运需求分析的必要性 ............................................................................15 2.2 客运需求基本特征 ...................................................................................16 2.3 客运需求影响因素 ...................................................................................20 2.4 客运需求 SP 调查 .....................................................................................27 2.5 本章小结 ..................................................................................................27 第三章 轨道式特快高速公路客运需求对比研究 ...............................................29 3.1 客运需求对比研究概述 ............................................................................29 3.2 对比研究影响因素 ...................................................................................30 3.3 模糊综合评判法的应用 ............................................................................38 3.4 本章小结 ..................................................................................................50 第四章 轨道式特快高速公路客运需求方式分担研究........................................51 4.1 客运需求方式分担概述 ............................................................................51 4.2 城际间旅客出行方式分担模型研究 .........................................................53 4.3 效用理论和 MNL 模型应用研究 .................................................................61 4.4 本章小结 ..................................................................................................68 第五章 轨道式特快高速公路旅客角度可行性综合评价 ....................................695.1 对比研究评价...........................................................................................69 5.2 方式分担评价...........................................................................................69 5.3 综合评价 ..................................................................................................70 5.4 本章小结 ..................................................................................................71 第六章 轨道式特快高速公路其它相关研究.......................................................72 6.1 建设时期分析...........................................................................................72 6.2 建设及运营模式分析................................................................................72 6.3 本章小结 ..................................................................................