哈尔滨轨道交通 1 号线三期工程可行性研究 哈尔滨轨道交通 1 号线三期工程是从哈尔滨市新疆大街站至哈尔滨南站建 设的轨道线路，为哈尔滨市轨道交通近期线网中通过与 1 号线一、二期工程的 衔接连接中心城区及其哈尔滨南部哈南工业新城的市郊线路。该工程强化了中 心区向外围的交通辐射功能，串联了哈西、平房组团，建立了中心城区与南部 工业新城的快速交通通道。本文基于此项工程的建设，展开轨道交通 1 号线三 期工程可行性的研究。 首先，本文结合哈尔滨市城市经济社会发展现状，指出了推进哈尔滨轨道 交通 1 号线三期工程项目建设的必要性和迫切性。再次，对项目建设需求的可 行性进行了分析。在对城市客运交通现状进行分析的基础上（主要以公共交通 及居民出行为主要依据），对客流进行预测。从客流预测结果来看，1 号线的客 流效益较好。全线建成后，该线路各期的高峰高断面位置较为稳定，而高峰高 断面客流量值则逐步稳步提高。对换乘客流量进行预测后，得出 1 号线作为城 市南北向中轴线上的轨道线路，其换乘功能比较突出。从客流预测的前提来看， 有许多预测前提会对具体一条轨道线路的客流量产生较显著影响，因此，本文 对客流敏感性也进行了分析，其中包括：城市发展的导向因素、公交出行方式 比重对客流预测的影响、轨道交通网络建设进度、高峰小数系数的波动影响因 素、客流的季节性波动因素、轨道线路票价因素。最后，对哈尔滨轨道交通 1 号线三期工程项目经济的合理性进行了分析。通过财务分析，对项目的财务盈 利能力、偿还能力及抵御风险的能力分析，本项目财务状况一般，和国内其他 城市情况类同，运营初期需要政府财政支持或采用其他方式进行补贴并给予政 策优惠，使得轨道交通项目能得以良性循环。通过国民经济分析，表明项目对 国民经济的净贡献达到或超过了要求的水平，社会效益较好，项目是可以接受 的。II 本文的主要研究目的在于对哈尔滨轨道交通 1 号线三期工程进行可行性研 究，也期望能够对同类工程建设项目的可行性研究起到借鉴作用。另外，通过 本文的研究，希望能够达到为其他同类轨道交通建设提供参考的作用。 关键词： 轨道交通 工程项目 可行性研究III Abstract Study on the Engineering feasibility of subway No1. （The third stage） In Harbin The engineering of subway No1.（The third stage） was the new line in Harbin witch could connected subway No1.（The first stage and second stage）, it would build the subway from Xinjiangdajie street station to Hanan street station, it also could strength the connection between the central city and Hanan city. The function of the engineering was fast though fare in Hanan city and connection the Haxi city group and Pingfang city group. The paper carried the study focus the feasibility of subway No1.（The third stage）in Harbin. First , the paper pointed out the necessity and urgency of the subway No1.（The third stage） based on economic and social development in Harbin; Second, it was analyzed the passage’s demand, and carried out the forecast of passenger flow witch got the conclusion from urban passenger traffic situation. It could get the conclusion that the benefit of NO.1 line was good and the passenger flow was stable. The max passenger flow had the trend to rise. The characteristic of ride passenger flow was huge; it showed that other subway line ride with NO.1. from the result of forest could got the conclusions that so many factors could effected the passenger flow, such as urban development-oriented, the proportion of bus travel, transportation network construction, the peak fractional coefficient, seasonal fluctuations and fare. The paper made a sensitivity analysis to those factors. Last, it made an analyzed to the economic rationality to the engineering. Though the analysis the index of Financial profitability, solvency and withstand risks, it shown the economics of No1.（The third stage） was not very well. The government of Harbin needs compensation the deficit of the engineering in the initial operation, the No1（.The third stage）could into the virtuousIV circle. Other cities also did the same things. Though the economic analysis , the engineering could get better level, the benefit of society was better, the No1.（The third stage） was feasibility. The mainly aim of the paper was got the benefit conclusion witch come from study the feasibility of No1.（The third stage）, to provide the information to other engineering. Keywords: Subway Engineering FeasibilityV 目 录 第 1 章 绪论........................................................................................... 1 1.1 项目背景 ........................................................................................ 1 1.2 项目意义 ........................................................................................ 2 1.3 本文的研究内容与方法 ................................................................ 2 第 2 章 项目建设必要性....................................................................... 4 2.1 轨道交通国内外现状分析 ............................................................ 4 2.2 城市交通现状和存在的问题 ........................................................ 4 2.3 轨道交通 1 号线三期工程的规划方案........................................ 6 2.4 工程项目建设的必要性 ................................................................ 7 第 3 章 项目建设需求的可行性......................................................... 12 3.1 城市客运交通现状与分析 .......................................................... 12 3.2 客流预测结果 .............................................................................. 14 3.3 客流敏感性分析 .......................................................................... 15 第 4 章 项目工程技术方案的合理性................................................. 20 4.1 线路方案的合理性 ...................................................................... 20 4.2 站点方案的合理性 ...................................................................... 24 第 5 章 项目经济的合理性................................................................. 30 5.1 财务分析 ...................................................................................... 30 5.2 国民经济分析 .............................................................................. 44 结 论 ................................................................................................. 49