城市快速路提供着快速的跨区域交通联系，承担着中心城各片区之间和城 市对外交通的快速集散，本文以济南市工业北路为例，对快速路的交通需求预 测、型式选择及横断面方案等进行研究，提出适应居民出行需求的建设方案。 首先，分析了项目建设的背景概况和功能定位，了解了影响区土地利用、 交通设施和沿线轨道交通的现状及规划，找到了现状周边路网上的重要道路节 点。从道路交通和居民出行等方面进行了数据资料收集，依据建设项目的特殊 性将交通量分为趋势交通量和诱增交通量分别进行预测。对于趋势交通量利用 基于生成率法的交通生成预测得到了规划近期及远期的居民出行产生量和出行 吸引量；采用双约束重力模型对居民出行分布特征进行了预测；采用多项 Logit 模型对居民出行方式进行了划分；依据多路径概率模型确定了各路段的交通分 配量。对于诱增交通量采用重力模型法，引入“地区经济可接近性”概念进行 了预测。为后续建设方案的确定提供依据。 根据《城市道路设计规范》对各路段车道数进行了计算，从施工难度、工 程造价、经济效益和景观效果四个方面通过 FTOPSIS 模糊综合评价，对快速路 型式进行了方案比选，最终选择全线高架的型式，在道路横断面方面，通过分 析对比，选择了公交专用道非封闭设置的方案，并确定了沿线重要节点的建设 方案及横断面设计方案。 最后，在对 HCM、TRRL 和《城市道路工程设计规范》三种方法的优缺点 比较的基础上，采用 HCM 方法结合预测交通量计算了被交道路所需车道数， 提出了有无导流岛两种交叉口渠化方案，从交通延误和追尾冲突风险方面利用 Vissim 进行了仿真，确定了设置导流岛为最终方案，给出了各个交叉口的平面 几何设计方案。 关键词，交通需求预测；诱增交通量；模糊综合评价；Vissim 仿真；横断面； 交叉口设计哈尔滨工业大学工学硕士学位报告 - II - Abstract The urban expressway provides fast cross-regional transportation links, and it is responsible for the rapid distribution of external traffic between the central city and the city. Taking Gongyebie Street as the case study, this research predicted the traffic demand, selection types and cross-cutting of the expressway, etc., and proposed a rapid road construction plan that meets residents' travel demand. Firstly, the background and functional orientation of the project construction were analyzed. The current situation and planning of the land use, transportation facilities and rail transit along the affected area are analyzed in detail. The important road nodes on the surrounding road network were found. Data collection was carried out from the aspects of road traffic and residents' travel, and the traffic volume was divided into trend traffic volume and induced traffic volume according to the particularity of the construction project. For the trend traffic volume, the traffic generation forecast based on the generation rate method is used to obtain the recent travel and travel attraction of the residents. The double-constrained gravity model is used to predict the distribution characteristics of the residents' travel. The Logit model is used to splited the way of residents' travel; the traffic allocation of each section is determined according to the multipath probability model. For the induced traffic volume, the gravity model method was adopted, and the concept of “regional economic accessibility” was introduced. Providing a basis for the determination of the following construction plans. Then, according to the Urban Road Design Code, the number of lanes was calculated. Through FTOPSIS fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, from four aspects of construction difficulty, project cost, economic benefit and landscape effect, the scheme comparison of the expressway type was carried out, and finally the whole line of elevated type was selected. In terms of road cross section, through analysis and comparison, the scheme of non-closed setting of bus lanes was selected, and the construction plan and cross-section design scheme of important nodes along the line were determined. Finally, based on the comparison of the advantages and disadvantages of the three methods of HCM, TRRL and Urban Road Engineering Design Specification, the HCM method combined with the predicted traffic volume is used to calculate the number of lanes, and the presence or absence of the diversion island is proposed. Two kinds of intersection channelization schemes were simulated by using Vissim in terms of traffic delay and rear-end conflict risk. The setting of the diversion island was determined as the final scheme, and the plane geometric design scheme of each哈尔滨工业大学工学硕士学位报告 - III - intersection was given. Keywords: transit trip demand forecast, induced traffic, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, Vissim simulation, cross section, design of intersection哈尔滨工业大学工学硕士学位报告 - IV - 目 录 摘要.......................................................................................................................I ABSTRACT.............................................................................................................II 目 录....................................................................................................................IV 第 1 章 绪 论........................................................................................................1 1.1 研究背景、目的与意义..............................................................................1 1.1.1 研究背景................................................................................................1 1.1.2 研究目的................................................................................................1 1.1.3 研究意义................................................................................................2 1.2 国内外研究现状...........................................................................................2 1.2.1 国外研究现状.......................................................................................2 1.2.2 国内研究现状.......................................................................................4 1.2.3 国内外研究现状综述...........................................................................6 1.3 主要研究内容与技术路线..........................................................................7 1.3.1 主要研究内容.......................................................................................7 1.3.2 研究方法................................................................................................8 1.3.3 技术路线................................................................................................8 第 2 章 济南市工业北路建设项目背景及现状分析....................................... 10 2.1 项目建设背景与功能定位........................................................................10 2.1.1 项目概况..............................................................................................10 2.1.2 项目建设背景.......................................................................................10 2.1.3 项目功能定位...................................................................................... 11 2.2 项目影响区现状及规划............................................................................12 2.2.1 土地利用现状与规划.........................................................................12 2.2.2 交通设施现状与规划.........................................................................12 2.2.3 沿线轨道交通规划...............................................................................20 2.3 拟建项目交通现状分析............................................................................20 2.3.1 现状周边路网.....................................................................................20 2.3.2 现状道路节点.....................................................................................21 2.4 本章小结.....................................................................................................22 第 3 章 基于四阶段法的交通需求预测............................................................23 3.1 人口发展与社会经济预测........................................................................23哈尔滨工业大学工学硕士学位报告 - V - 3.1.1 人口发展预测...........................................................