近年来，随着金融科技迅猛发展，新兴技术与银行服务不断融合、金融交易 去实体化特征凸显、客户体验要求不断提高，银行客户需求与行为方式发生深刻 变化，网点客户到访率不断下降，电子渠道和机具对网点人工替代不断增强，传 统等客上门的营销模式面临颠覆性挑战。这使得农行甘肃分行网点多、机具多、 物理渠道覆盖面广的传统特色与优势慢慢消失殆尽。同时，农行甘肃分行自身也 面临着应届大学生招聘数量压缩、员工退休高峰期到来、新兴业务专业型人才紧 缺、人员流失加剧等现状。这些问题的到来，对农行甘肃分行竞争力提升造成了 很大影响。近年来，农行甘肃分行网点虽然在人员招聘、人才选拔、人员培训等 方面做了一些创新和努力，但大多是对以上问题局部性、小范围的应对措施，在 网点人力资源整体规划方面缺乏科学的预测和分析。 如何做好网点人力资源配置，有效提升人力资源对网点业务发展的支撑作 用，使网点在日趋激烈的竞争环境下获得充分优势，是农行甘肃分行网点人力资 源规划面临的严峻课题。本文在研读和总结人力资源规划相关理论的基础上，总 结了人力资源规划的内涵，掌握了人力资源规划的内容和方法。通过对农行甘肃 分行网点人力资源配置和规划现状进行深入解剖分析，总结出了网点人力资源规 划存在的主要问题和形成原因。通过趋势分析法、马尔科夫模型等研究方法，对 农行甘肃分行网点人力资源供需进行了预测，对网点人力资源供需平衡进行了分 析。并在对以上研究的基础上提出了适应农行甘肃分行发展的网点人力资源规划 计划。最后，为保障网点人力资源规划相关计划的有效实施提出了保障措施。 本文期望通过科学的研究方法、严谨的数据分析，充分体现农行甘肃分行在 网点人力资源规划方面面临的突出矛盾，制定针对性强、可操作性强的网点人力 资源规划计划，并为保障人力资源规划计划的实施提出行之有效的保障措施。从 而有效地发挥人力资源规划的作用，使网点有限的人力资源能够得到充分运用， 最大程度的满足网点业务发展对人力资源的需求，实现农行甘肃分行网点的长期 稳定发展。 关键词：农行甘肃分行，人力资源规划，供需预测，网点MBA 学位论文 作者：邓皓轩 农行甘肃分行网点人力资源规划研究 II THE STUDY ON HUMAN RESOURCE PLANNING OF AGRICULTURALBANK OF CHINA GANSU BRANCH Abstract In recent years, with the rapid development of financial science and technology, the integration of emerging technologies and banking services, the prominence of de-materialization characteristics of financial transactions, and the continuous improvement of customer experience requirements, profound changes have taken place in bank customer needs and behavior patterns, the visiting rate of network customers has been declining, and the manual substitution of electronic channels and tools for network customers has continued. Enhanced, the traditional customer -to-door marketing model is facing subversive challenges. This makes the traditional characteristics and advantages of Agricultural Bank of China Gansu Branch , which has many branches, many machines and wide physical channels, disappear slowly. At the same time, the Agricultural Bank of China Gansu Branch is also facing the current situation of the reduction of the number of college students recruited, the arrival of the peak period of retirement, the shortage of professional talents in new business, and the aggravation of staff turnover. The arrival of these problems has a great impact on the competitiveness of Agricultural Bank of China Gansu Branch. In recent years, the Agricultural Bank of China Gansu Branch has made some innovations and efforts in personnel recruitment, talent selection and personnel training, but most of them are local and small-scale measures to deal with the above problems, lacking scientific prediction and analysis in the overall planning of human resources. How to do a good job in the allocation of human resources, effectively enhance the role of human resources in supporting the development of the network business, so that the network can gain full advantage in the increasingly fierce competitive environment, is a serious issue facing the network human resources planning of the Agricultural Bank of China Gansu Branch. On the basis of studying and summarizing the relevant theories of human resources planning, this paper summarizes the connotation of human resources planning and grasps the content and methods of human resources planning. Based on the in-depth analysis of the current situation ofMBA 学位论文 作者：邓皓轩 农行甘肃分行网点人力资源规划研究 III human resources allocation and planning in the branch of Agricultural Bank of China Gansu Branch, the main problems and the reasons for the formation of the Agricultural Bank of China Gansu Branch in human resources planning are summarized. Through the research methods of trend analysis and Markov model, the supply and demand of human resources in the Agricultural Bank of China Gansu Branch are forecasted, and the balance between supply and demand of human resources in the Agricultural Bank of China Gansu Branch is analyzed. On the basis of the above research, the human resource planning of the Agricultural Bank of China Gansu Branch is put forward. Finally, some safeguard measures are put forward to ensure the effective implementation of the relevant human resource planning plans. Through scientific research methods and rigorous data analysis, this paper expects to fully reflect the outstanding contradictions faced by the Agricultural Bank of China Gansu Branch in the human resources planning of its outlets, to formulate a highly targeted and operable human resources planning plan for its outlets, and to put forward effective safeguards for the implementation of the human resources planning plan. Measures. In order to effectively play the role of human resources planning, so that the limited human resources can be fully utilized, to meet the needs of human resources for the development of network business to the greatest extent, and to achieve the long-term stable development of the network of Agricultural Bank of China Gansu Branch. Key Words:Agriculture Bank of China Gansu Branch, Human resources development strategy, Prediction of supply and demand, Bank outletsMBA 学位论文 作者：邓皓轩 农行甘肃分行网点人力资源规划研究 IV 目 录 中文摘要....................................................................................................Ⅰ Abstract.....................................................................................................Ⅱ 第 1 章 绪论..............................................................................................1 1.1 研究背景........................................................................................................1 1.2 研究目的和意义............................................................................................2 1.3 研究方法........................................................................................................3 1.4 研究思路和框架............................................................................................4 第 2 章 人力资源规划概述及研究回顾.................................................6 2.1 人力资源规划概述........................................................................................6 2.1.1 人力资源规划的概念............................................................................6 2.1.2 人力资源规划的作用和目的................................................................6 2.1.3 人力资源规划的方法和程序................................................................8 2.2 人力资源规划研究回顾................................................................................9 2.2.1 国外人力资源规划研究状况................................................................9 2.2.2 国内人力资源规划研究状况..............................................................10 第 3 章 农行甘肃分行网点概况和人力资源规划现状分析.............. 11 3.1 农行甘肃分行概况......................................................................................11 3.1.1 基本情况介绍......................................................................................11 3.1.2 经营状况概况......................................................................................11 3.1.3 组织结构概况......................................................................................11 3.1.4 人力