2 Colliers Quarterly |9 July 2018 | Shenzhen | Office | Colliers International new supply in core areas to exceed 6.0million sq m (65.0 million sq ft), half ofwhich is scheduled to be in Qianhai.区新增甲级写字楼供应超过600万平方米 (6500万平方英尺)；其中一半的供应量 将来自前海。 Vacancy rate The vacancy rate stood at 13.6% at end- Q2, up by 0.3 percentage points QOQ,but down by 11.1 percentage points. Weexpect vacancy to rise to a peak ofnearly 29.0% in 2019 due to heavy newsupply in Qianhai, but to fall back to13.7% by end-2022.空置率本季度空置率为13.6%，环比上浮0.3%,但 同比下调11.1%。我们预估前海的大量新增 供应将带动全市空置率在2019年攀升至近 29%的历史高位，随后或于2022年回调至 13.7%。RentWe expect rent to rise by 8% in 2018,followed by a downward adjustment of4% in 2019 due to heavy new supply inQianhai, however, we expect to seepositive rental growth in Futian andNanshan. The city average Rent shouldpick up in 2020. 租金我们预测2018年租金会稳中有升，同比或 有8%的增幅，而到2019年受前海大量新增 供应的压力或有调整性下浮,浮动区域约为 4%。但福田和南山依然预计有小幅租金增 长。全市租金随后于2020年会有所回升。 Demand stayed robust, vacancyrate remained stable租赁市场活跃，空置率稳定Driving demand, Shenzhen's economic momentumcontinues to be strong with a robust Q1 GDP growth rateof 8.1% YOY. Emerging industries, a classification fromthe Shenzhen government including 10 industrialsectors, such as AI, internet, culture & innovation,among others, accounted for 37.7% of GDP; and thetotal added value of these industries increased by 11.4%YOY. Fixed asset and real estate investment increasedby 28.1% and 31.1% YOY respectively. Enterprises witha revenue exceeding RMB20 million (USD3.1 million)saw their total revenue increase 70.6% YOY to reachRMB18.1 billion (USD2.8 billion).深圳经济保持积极态势，2018年第一季度全市GDP实现同比 增长8.1%，其中新兴产业的工业增加值实现同比增长 11.4%，占GDP的37.7%。全市固定资产投资和房地产投资同 比各自增长28.1%和31.1%。新增的营收超过2000万元的规 模企业实现收入181亿元人民币（28亿美元），同比增长 70.6%。The leasing market was active in Q2 2018, keeping thecity’s vacancy rate stable. Luohu saw its vacancy ratedrop by 0.1 percentage points QOQ to 12.2%. Futiansaw its vacancy rate drop by 2.6 percentage points QOQto 8.4% despite the new supply CDB Tower. This isbecause a lack of developable land will limit futuresupply, so tenants are taking the opportunity to leasespace now, securing their spots in the CBD. On theother hand, Nanshan’s vacancy rate increased by 3.1percentage points to 10.4% due to new supply. Impactedby the only new project entering the market, Qianhai’svacancy rate increased by 3.2 percentage points to84.5%. We expect Qianhai’s vacancy rate to remain highuntil the planned infrastructure and business amenitiesare in place.2018二季度，租赁市场活跃，全市空置率表现平稳。罗湖区 的空置率表现较稳定，环比下调0.1%至12.2%；福田CBD尽 管季内录入新项目国银金融中心，其空置率依然环比下跌 2.6%至8.4%。鉴于核心商业区已经没有土地新增供应，有限 的资源拉动租户对该市场的需求。另一方面，南山季内由于 新增供应的影响，空置率上浮3.1%，至10.4%。前海季度内 有一个项目入市，导致其空置率环比上升3.2%至84.5%，短 期内或因未成熟的基建环境而维持高位。中长期来看，南山 和前海的租赁需求将日渐活跃。3 Colliers Quarterly |9 July 2018 | Shenzhen | Office | Colliers International Demand remained robust in H1 2018, especially inFutian and Nanshan district. The most active industriesinclude Finance, Technology, Professional services, andAdvanced manufacturing. Meanwhile, flexible workingspace is continuing to expand in Shenzhen. Majorleasing transactions are listed as follows: Source: Colliers InternationalMAJOR LEASING TRANSACTIONS Q1-Q2 2018PROPERTY TENANT INDUSTRYRongchao HouhaiTower DJIAdvancedManufacturingEnergy Tower Great Wall Securities FinanceDinghe BuildingGuoshengSecurities AssetManagementFinanceShenzhen Bay Tech EcoPark Zone 3 Webank FinanceUphills T2 China Merchants FinTech FinTechZhongjian SteelBuilding WeworkFlexibleWorkingSpaceWongtee Center Ping’an PH consulting Professional ServicesRaffles City Toutiao TechnologyEnergy Tower AIA FinanceTCL Building Naked HubFlexibleWorkingSpace2018年上半年深圳的租赁需求持续强劲，尤其在福田和额南 山区。其中的租赁主力行业包括金融、科技、专业服务和先 进制造。此外，联合办公在深圳持续扩张。以下录入上半年 主要租赁交易信息：来源: 高力国际2018年上半年主要租赁交易项目 租户 行业荣超后海大厦 大疆科技 先进制造能源大厦 长城证券 金融鼎和大厦 国盛证券资产管理 金融深圳湾科技生态园三 区 微众银行 金融深业上城T2 招商局金融科技 金融科技中建钢构大厦 Wework 联合办公皇庭中心 平安普惠企业咨询 专业服务来福士广场 今日头条 科技能源大厦 友邦保险 金融TCL大厦 裸心社 联合办公Future rental growth led byNanshan 未来租金走势由南山领涨At the end of Q2 2018, the average Grade A rent wasRMB245 (USD38.00) per sq m per month, an increaseof 3.5 percent QOQ and 6.3 percent YOY. Luohu saw itsrent rise by 1.6% QOQ, reaching RMB228 (USD35.20)per sq m per month in Q2 2018. The average rent inFutian increased 2.9 percent QOQ and 4.3% YOY toRMB281 (USD43.40) per sq m per month. Supported byheavy demand due to the technology sector's quickexpansion, Nanshan saw its average rent rise 8.2%QOQ and 16.7% YOY to RMB204 (USD31.70) per sq mper month. A lack of convenient transport infrastructurehas limited Qianhai’s appeal to potential tenants, and thedistrict’s rent has dropped by 2.9% QOQ to RMB149(USD23.00) per month per sq m. However, we expectrents in Qianhai to increase more rapidly when the majormetro line starts operation in 2020.截至2018年第二季度末，深圳市甲级写字楼市场的平均租 金为245元（38.0美元）每月每平方米，环比增长3.5%， 同比增长6.3%。分区看，罗湖区2018年第二季度录得租金 228元（35.2美元），环比增长1.6%；福田区的平均租金同 上季度比增长2.9%，较去年同比攀升4.3%至每月每平方米 281元人民币。南山区的甲级写字楼的平均租金，受科技公 司快速扩张的需求支撑，环比增长8.2%，同比增长16.7%至 每月每平方米204元人民币。另一方面，前海因基建设施的 未完善，目前对租户吸引力较为有限，其租金为每月每平方 米149元人民币·，同上季度比下跌2.9%。然而，前海租金 走低的情势或在2020年主要地铁线路投入使用后有所改 观。 4 Colliers Quarterly |9 July 2018 | Shenzhen | Office | Colliers International New Supply, Net Absorption and Vacancy Rate ofthe Shenzhen Grade A Office Market ('000 sq m)深圳甲级写字楼市场新增供应、净吸纳量和空置率 （千平方米）Source: Colliers International数据来源：高力国际Shenzhen Grade A Office Rent by Submarket(RMB psm per month) 深圳甲级写字楼子市场租金（人民币每月每平方米）Source: Colliers International 数据来源：高力国际 Heavy new supply should enter themarket over next three years未来三年前海将有大面积新增供应入 市We expect strong economic prospects to drive up newoffice leasing demand, which ought to lessen thedisruption to Shenzhen’s office market since we expectthe upcoming new supply to spike between 2019 and2020. We believe net absorption will exceed 1.0 millionsq m (11.1 million sq ft) p.a. over the next three years.Five projects totalling 194,000 sq m (2.1 million sq ft)entered the market in Q2 2018. Further, we expect to see1.3 million sq m (11.1 million sq ft) of new supply over H22018. For the next three years, we expect total newsupply in core areas to exceed 6.0 million sq m (65.0million sq ft), half of which should be in Qianhai.深圳稳健的经济增长拉动了持续的租赁需求，并将减少深圳 2019年到2020年大量的新增供应对市场的冲击。我们预计 未来三年，全市净吸纳量将达到每年超过100万平方米 （1100万平方英尺）。2018年第二季度深圳录得五个项目，共计可租赁面积为 194,000平方米(210万平方英尺)。此外，2018下半年我们 或将见证约130万平方米（1400万平方英尺）的新增供应入 市。未来三年，深圳核心地区新增甲级写字楼供应超过600 万平方米(6500万平方英尺)；其中一半的供应量将来自前 海。0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1Q 12 2Q 12 3Q 12 4Q 12 1Q 13 2Q 13 3Q 13 4Q 13 1Q 14 2Q 14 3Q 14 4Q 14 1Q 15 2Q 15 3Q 15 4Q 15 1Q 16 2Q 16 3Q 16 4Q 16 1Q 17 2Q 17 3Q 17 4Q 17 1Q 18 2Q 18 New SupplyNet AbsorptionVacancy Rate '000 sq m │ '000平