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最新第一季度北京住宅物业市场高力国际

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文本描述
Beijing Residential Property Market
北京住宅物业市场
collieRs inteRnational | Beijing
colliers/china
The overall residential market continued
to weaken with vacancy rate increases
and rental plummets across the board.
The pricing expectations between
developers and investors remained large,
resulting in a generally stagnant market
performance in the investment sector,
in spite of one en bloc sales transaction
registered in the quarter.
PRoPeRty tyPe | FiRst QuaRteR |
econoMic indicatoRs 经济指标
growth trends
china gdP *
Beijing gdP *
Fai *
utilised Fdi *
Beijing cPi **
Bank Rate *
overall Residential
sales Volume *
9.0%
9.0%
-2.98%
20.10%
-1.1%
5.4%
-39.6%
MaRket PeRFoRMance 市场表现
Rents Vacancy
Residential PRoPeRty | FiRst QuaRteR |

MaRket oVeRVieW 市场概览
The overall luxury residential market remained
softened with continued “wait-and-see” attitude
being seen amidst many institutional and
individual investors in 1Q09. The overall vacancy
rate of the Beijing luxury residential market
continued to increase, as it has since end-, as
many companies cut operation costs and housing
allowances, dampening the leasing demand for
the sectoral properties. Landlords started to offer
cut-throat incentive rentals to attract tenants.
Although there were some small discounts offered
by the luxury residential property developers, the
decrease in the overall average capital values was
mild in the quarter.
第一季度,北京豪华住宅市场仍表现疲软,
机构投资者和个人住房购买者的观望情绪犹存。许
多公司降低运营成本和住房补贴的政策打压了季内
豪华住宅的租赁需求,致使北京整体高端住宅市场
的空置率自年底以来至季内继续上升。为吸
引租户,本季许多业主开始采取割喉式降租。虽然
豪华住宅物业发展商亦降价促销,但力度不大,豪
华住宅物业的平均资本值下滑幅度不大

Located within the CBD area, Millennium
Residences and Forte International Apartment
(formerly known as Shiy HWA Centre) were
completed in 1Q09, adding 329 units of serviced
apartment and 370 units of luxury apartment to
the stock of the local luxury residential market,
respectively. Market observations by Colliers
International revealed that landlords of some
residential properties postponed their project
completion dates, which decisions were largely
made in consideration of the current weak sales
market and individual fnancial status.
本季豪华住宅市场的新增供应包括来自位于CBD区
域内329套的北京千禧服务式公寓和370套的复地
国际公寓(曾用名世华国际中心)。根据高力国际的
市场观察发现,受当前低迷的住宅销售市场和个案
项目的财务状况影响,部分住宅项目推迟竣工入市
时间

suPPly 供应
outlook 展望
supply
Vacancy
Rents
capital Values
overall
luxury apartments
serviced apartments
Villas
With the aforementioned new completions, total
stock of the Beijing luxury residential properties
expanded to 50,942 units, up 1.39% q-o-q or
28.22% y-o-y. Of this, the stock of the villa sector
remained at 12,742 units, accounting for 25.01%,
while that of the luxury apartment sector and the
serviced apartment sector were 29,832 units and
8,368 units, accounting for 58.56% and 16.43%,
up 1.26% q-o-q and 4.09% q-o-q, respectively.
由于上述新竣工项目的注入,北京豪华住宅市场
的存量扩大至50,942套,环比增幅1.39%,同比增
幅28.22%。其中,别墅市场的存量维持在12,742
套,本季内占总存量的25.01%;豪华公寓市场的
存量为29,832套,占总存量的58.56%;服务式公
寓的存量为8,368套,占总存量的16.43%,后两者
分别环比增长1.26%和4.09%

*
**
***
source: Beijing statistics Bureau, PBoc
data as of end-08
data as of end-Feb09
actural rate
***
collieRs inteRnational2
The Knowledge Report | First Quarter || Beijing Residential Property
With the ongoing fnancial crisis and the continued slowed down
economy in the locality, leasing demand for luxury properties continued
to weaken in the frst quarter of . Demand for residential properties
from both mid- to low-level expatriate staff and senior executives at
MNCs continued to dwindle, as some MNCs postponed or withdrew
their further investment in their Beijing operations while a few even
closed their representative offces, as was the case of America Online
(AOL). As a result, the overall vacancy rate of the Beijing luxury
residential market increased from 31.06% in 4Q08 to 31.8% in 1Q09.
Breaking down by sectors, villa, luxury apartment, and serviced
apartment recorded vacancy rates of 32.66%, 29.51% and 38.83%,
respectively. Total net absorption of the Beijing luxury residential
market was 89 units in the quarter, of which the villa sector and
apartment sectors accounted for 86 units and 47 units, down 80.28%
and 26.56% q-o-q, respectively, whilst the serviced apartment sector
accounted for -44 units.
鉴于持续的金融危机和本地经济的继续下滑,北京豪华住宅市场的租赁
需求在季内继续表现疲软。受金融危机的影响,北京市场内跃现一些跨
国公司推迟或取消在京追加性投资,甚至撤销其办事处,举例如美国在
线 (AOL),导致来自普通外派员工和高级管理人员对豪华住宅的租赁需求
出现继续萎缩。因此,北京整体豪华住宅市场的空置率从四季度
的31.06%上升至本季的31.8%。按物业种类分析,别墅、豪华公寓和服
务式公寓的空置率分别达32.66%, 29.51%和38.83%。就总体而言,
年第一季度,北京豪华住宅市场的净吸纳量为89套,其中,别墅和豪华
公寓净吸纳量录得环比下降80.28%和26.56%,至86和47套,而豪华服务
式公寓为-44套

deMand需求
Figure 1 Overall Supply&Demand of Beijing Luxury Residential Market
图1 北京豪华住宅市场整体供应与需求
Figure 2 Stock of Beijing Luxury Residential Market by Sector
图2 北京豪华住宅市场各物业类型存量
Source: Research&Advisory, Colliers International Beijing
数据来源:北京高力国际研究与咨询部
Source: Research&Advisory, Colliers International Beijing
数据来源:北京高力国际研究与咨询部
Figure 3 New Supply&Net Absorption of Beijing Luxury Residential Market
图3 北京豪华住宅市场新增供应和净吸纳量
Figure 4 Rents of Beijing Luxury Residential Market by Sector
图4 北京豪华住宅市场各物业类型租金
Source: Research&Advisory, Colliers International Beijing
数据来源:北京高力国际研究与咨询部
Source: Research&Advisory, Colliers International Beijing
数据来源:北京高力国际研究与咨询部
collieRs inteRnational3
The Knowledge Report | First Quarter || Beijing Residential Property
In order to attract tenants and cope with the ferce leasing competition,
many landlords of different type of properties, including villa, luxury
apartment and serviced apartment, started to offer cut-throat incentive
rentals in this quarter. As a consequence, the average rentals of villa,
luxury apartment and serviced apartment properties plummeted
to RMB94.39 psm per month, RMB136.72 psm per month and
RMB177.01 psm per month, down 12.34%, 11.60%, and 14.45%
q-o-q, respectively.
为吸引租户、应对激烈的市场竞争,众多来自不同类型物业的业主,包
括别墅、豪华公寓和服务式公寓,于季内开始采取割喉式优惠租金,致
使本季上述三种类型物业的平均租金下跌至94.39,136.72和177.01人民
币每月每平方米,环比跌幅分别达到12.34%, 11.60%和14.45%

Rents租金
inVestMent投资
In a general sense, the overall sales and investment market in the luxury
residential sector in Beijing remained stagnant in 1Q09 due primarily to
the large pricing expectations between developers and investors, which
stemmed from overseas to domestic and institutional to individual.
However, as forecasted in our previous report, there would be more
sales transactions looming onto the market as some fnancially strapped
developers would have to sell their projects to cash rich investors,
evidenced by an en bloc sales deal concluded in the quarter. CITIC
Trust&Investment recently bought the Taiyanggong B project from
Citychamp Dartong for RMB2.06 billio