本文以港口企业项目投资风险作为研究对象,立足于该方面的研究理论,结
合风险评价和应对的方法依据,主要运用模糊综合评价的研究方法,旨在建立~-
套针对港口企业适用的项目投资风险评价体系,考察港口投资项目中的风险因
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素,并形成相关评价结果。以天津港临港区液体化工码头项目投资为例,按照上
述的研究方法,收集数据,将其纳入到评价体系模型里,结合具体的案例来评价
港口项目投资风险,以此检验本文所构建的评价沬系具有的操性与可行性,从
而达到为港口企业决策者更好的管理企业提供参考和借鉴
本文重点探讨了港口项目投资的有关理论,重点就港口项目投资所具有的特
点及其基本模式作了梳理总结;针对港口企业投资的特点和风险进行进一步的分
析;最后着重说明港口项目投资的风险评价原则和相对应的方法
. 通过对港口项目进行研究,并针对可能造成项目风险的因素进行归纳,认为
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对港口项目投资造成影响的主要有六个方面:管理、市场、技术、融资、政策环
境和运营,并就这六大风险的特征及应对方法作了深入分析和研究
为建立有效的风险评价体系,针对港口企业项目投资的复杂性等特点,选取
基于模糊理论结合层次分析法的综合评价方法,建立相应的评价模型,作为本文
的主要研究方法
以天津港临港区液体化工码头项目投资为实例分析,针对项目不同阶段可能
存在的风险进行因素分析,并将指标数据代入已建立的评价体系,按照相应的理 内容摘要
论原则,结合港口企业的具体情况就其风险防控管理提出意见和建议
关键词:港口项目投资风险分析风险应对模糊综合评价 Abstract
Abstract
Port is an important link of the transportation system, and the port industry that
matched with it is one of the important basic industries of social development, the
part economy is the most important part of the national economy. For the past few
years, with the rapid evolution of global economic integration, more and more
frequent trade has increased the demand of the port industry. Accordingly, the port
scale of the market is becoming larger and larger, the port development direction is
becoming more and more diversified, port investment is becoming higher and higher.
With the establishment of the new port and the reconstruction of the old port, the
project investment has become an unavoidable part of the port development and an
increasingly important link. We should recognize clearly that risk of this project is
inseparable; therefore, using the modem project management technology to the port
enterprise project investment risk analysis,forming the risk management system
according to the results of the analysis and achieving the effective control of risk, itrs
very significant for enterprises.
Port enterprise project investment risk, the author of this paper, the theoretical basis
for further study of the project investment risk, risk evaluation and control method of
the basis, mainly USES the method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation research, aims
to build a set of applicable to port enterprise project investment risk evaluation system,
the risk factors of port investment project, and formed the relevant evaluation results.
Take Tianjin Port Liquid Chemical Terminal Investment Project as -an example,
according to the above research methods, collecting data, generation into the
evaluation system model, analyze the port project investment risk evaluation of case,
to verify the feasibility and reference value, establish the evaluation method of is
intended to provide port enterprise operators and managers have a reference of theory
and optimize the management train of thought.
The investment theory of port project including the characteristics and modes of port
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. Abstract
project investment is introduced in this thesis. Then fiirther analysis on the
characteristics and risks of investment in port enterprises. Finally, focus on the risk
assessment principles and corresponding methods of the port project investment.
Through the studied with the port project investment, the possible causes of the
project risk factors are summarized and concluded the main six kinds of risk affecting
the port project investment, including: market risk, finance risk, operation risk, the
policy environment risk, the technology risk and the risk management, then research
the characteristics of various risk refinement for fiirther analysis.
To establish an effective risk evaluation system, in view of the complexity of the port
enterprise project investment and other characteristics, selection of comprehensive
evaluation method based on fiizzy theory combined with analytip hierarchy process
(AHP), the corresponding evaluation model is set up, as the mainly research method
of this paper.
Take Tianjin Port Liquid Chemical Terminal Investment Project as an example, for
projects at different stages of possible risk factors analysis, and the index data into the
established evaluation system, in accordance with the corresponding theoretical
principles, targeted risk prevention control measures are put forward.
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Key Words: Port Project Investment, Risk Analysis, Risk Response, Fuzzy
Evaluation 目录
目录
第1章 绪论1.1 选题目的及意义&39;
1.2 国内外相关研究综述1.2.1国外研究综述
..2
1.2.2国内研究综述1.2.3国内外研究现状的比较1.3 研究内容和研究方法1.3.1研究内容.1.3.2研究方法和研究路线1. 4 研究贡献第2章 港口企业项目投资风险理论概述2.1 ..港口企业项目投资定义与特征2.1.1港口企业项目投资的定义2_ 1.2港口企业项目投资的特征2.2 港口企业项目投资风险定义与特点2.2. 1&39;港口企业项目投资风险的定义2.2.2港口企业项目投资风险的特点:
第3章 港口企业项目投资风险评价指标与模型的构建3.1 港口企业风险评价理论概述3. 1. 1风险评价定义3. 1.2港口企业项目投资风险评价的原则3.1.3港口企业项目投资风险评价方法的选择3.2 港口企业项目投资风险评价指标构建3. 2. 1指标体系设计原则3. 2. 2港口企业项目风险构成因素3. 2. 3建立风险因素评价指标体系3.3 港口企业项目投资风险评价模型的建立显示信息，或将命令回显打开或关上
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3. 3.1评价指标权重的确定3. 3. 2多层次模糊综合评价模型第4章 港口企业项目投资的风险应对
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4.1 企业项目投资风险基本应对方法
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4.2 港口企业项目投资风险的应对方法
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4.2. 1港口企业项目投资风险与基本应对方法的对应关系
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4. 2. 2港口企业项目投资各项风险的具体应对方法
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第5章 天津港临港区液体化工码头项目投资风险评价及应对
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5.1 天津港临港区液体化工码头项目介绍
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5^.1. 1天津港临港区液体化工码头项目背景概述
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5.1. 2天津港临港区液体化工码头项目概况
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5.2 天津港临港区液体化工码头项目投资风险定量评价
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5. 2. 1构建风险定量评价体系
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5. 2. 2多层次模糊综合评价
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5.2.3模糊综合计算
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5. 2. 4计算结果简要分析
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5.3 天津港临港区液体化工码头项目投资风险的综合分析
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5-4 天津港临港区液体化工码头项目投资风险的评价结论及应对....45
5. 4. 1评价与分析结论
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5. 4. 2主要风险的应对
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5. 4. 3次要风险的应对
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第6章结语
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6. 1 结论
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6. 2 不足
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6.3 展望
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参考文献 52
致谢 55 第1章绪论
第1章绪论
1.1选题目的及意义
港口是交通运输体系中的重要环节,与之匹配形成的港口产业是关乎社会发
展的重要基础产业之一,港口经济更是我国国民经济的重要组成部分。近年来,
随着全球经济一体化的飞速发展,越来越频繁的贸易往来加大了港口行业的市场
需求
==>>