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“美国优先”政策下的“特朗普冲击波”对中国主要有
以下8大挑战：
1. 特朗普宣布退出TPP，反对NAFTA和WTO等国际
及区域自由贸易体制
2. 指责中国为汇率操纵国，声称对中国征收45%的惩罚
性关税
3. 采取大幅减税政策及其他措施吸引美企回流
4. 在台湾问题上挑战“一个中国”政策与三个中美联合
公报
5. 取消对页岩气和清洁煤生产的限制，考虑退出巴黎气
候协定
6. 在朝鲜问题上加大对中国施压
7. 暗示将允许日本、韩国发展核武器
8. 不再为无明显短期利益或他国能“搭顺风车”的“公
共产品”买单
事实上，中美两国经贸、人文交往非常紧密，任何一方
都不可能毫不自损地切断这层联系。中美两国都应该明确认识
到，在特朗普政府任内中美关系依然要延续过去近40年的互
惠、共赢、共生，并且合作还将继续深化，中美依然充满巨大
共同利益。本报告发现，在特朗普就任后，中美之间可以化挑
战为8大合作机遇：
Trump's Coming Era:
Challenges, Opportunities
and Policy Responses1. 中美双边贸易，是两国共同利益广泛又深度交集领域，两国经
济在某些领域已经难分彼此
2. 中美都需要类似亚太自贸区（FTAAP）的平台，共同倡导更
公平的21世纪经济规则
3. 中美双边投资在过去几十年中飞速发展，产生巨大的外溢效应，
促进了两个国家的就业、技术进步、经济转型
4. 跨国公司在中美关系中一直扮演了“稳定器”的角色，他们还
将继续对中美两国决策者发出理性、克制的呼声
5. 随着特朗普基础设施计划的出炉，基础设施合作有望中美未来
合作新亮点
6. 中美之间人文交流经过三十多年的孕育，正汇聚成流，旅游、
留学、移民正突破太平洋的鸿沟，促成两国深入的文化融合
7. 美国各州拥有州经济事务高度的决策权，并且与中国经济往来
密切，将是中美关系强有力的支持者，将在特朗普联邦政府时期帮助
稳固两国关系
8. 中美两国的共识和通力合作可以创造全球治理的里程碑事件，
以《巴黎协定》的签署为例，中美合作将成为提供“全球公共产品”
的新模式
最后，本报告建议，中美双方应未雨绸缪、有针对性地准备应
急预案，力求保持双边贸易、文化、外交总体平稳发展，并提出以下
10项建议与对策迎接特朗普时代的机遇与挑战：
1. 中美经济外交优先，加强中国对美经贸、投资领域的合作
2. 重视与美方跨国公司合作，发挥美方跨国公司在在中美关系中
的重要作用
3. 加强中美在区域经贸合作，共同引领和促成亚太自贸区
FTAAP启动和建设
4. 强化中美人文交流，大力发展中美旅游，留学，合作办学与科
教文卫等领域合作
5. 在中美基础设施建设和第三国市场开展广泛合作，邀请美国加
入亚投行
6. 加强与美国各州政府合作，举办中国31个省市自治区与美国
50个州的中美省州长年度峰会
7. 尽早启动中美首脑会唔，邀请特朗普团队访华
8. 提升中日韩合作和中国与东南亚合作，发挥儒家文化圈的凝聚
作用，减少亚太地区摩擦
9. 加强中美全球治理合作，推进全球治理体系的完善和升级
10. 积极开展“智库二轨外交”，为中美公共外交建言献策。Executive Summery
On Friday, Jan 20th 2017, Donald Trump will
offcially be sworn in as the 45th president
of the United States. As an “outlier” in
political science, the President-elect stirred
tremendous attention from both within and
outside of U.S. with his strong personality
and anti-establishment statements. Scholars
and politicians believe that under Trump’s
leadership, major policy changes will be made
and might even observe a growing trend of anti-
globalization. This report will discuss U.S.-China
relations based on Trump political perspective
and behaviors, such as his “twitter presidency”
and controversial cabinet nominations. Through
studying Trump’s personal administrative style,
his cabinet members’ professional background
and U.S.-China diplomatic relationship, the
report summarizes the research fndings into
eight challenges and eight opportunities that
both China and U.S. might need to deal with
in the future, and then suggests ten possible
countermeasures to Chinese policymakers.
Under Trump’s “America First” political
perspective, China might face eight potential
challenges:
1. Intends to withdraw U.S. from TPP and
renegotiate the international/regional free trade
system, such as NAFTA and WTO.
2. Indicts China for currency manipulation, and
proposes to raise tariffs on Chinese exports to
U.S. by 45%
3. Uses tax policy and other fnancial measures
to encourage U.S. enterprises moving back to
the States
4. Challenges the “One China” Policy and the
three U.S.-China Joint Communiques through
making sensitive statements on Taiwan issues
5. Unleashes America’s shale gas and clean coal
reserves and withdraw from the Paris Climate
Agreement
6. Pressures China to crack down on North
Korea’s development of nuclear weapons
7. Indirectly encourages Japan and South Korea
to develop nuclear weapons
8. Reduces the “free-riding issues” by charging
American allies a higher price for U.S. security
commitments
Economic, trade ties between China and U.S. as
well as people-to-people exchanges have become
much closer than ever, and neither side could
stand the cost of cutting these ties. Both countries
will soon recognize that Sino-US relations, even
in the Trump Administration, should maintain
the momentum of the past 40 years - that of
reciprocity, mutual benefts and interdependence.
The two countries should continue to deepen
their cooperation with immense common
interests, a great beneft for either.
The report releases eight major
opportunities for the two countries in future
cooperation:
1. Strong bilateral trade allows both U.S. and
China to enjoy the fruitful outcome of shared
common interests and in-depth cooperation.
Through years of development, the two
countries’ economies are getting increasingly
intertwined with each other in various
industries.
2. By actively participate on international
platforms, such as the Free Trade Area of
the Asia-Pacifc (FTAAP), U.S. and China can
collaboratively promote fairer game rules for the
21st century
3. U.S. – China bilateral investment experienced
a rapid increase in the past few decades. This
astonishing development has resulted immense
spillover effect for both countries, such aspromoting domestic employment, upgrading
technological development, and stimulating
industrial restructuring.
4. Multinational corporations are playing an
essential role in stabilizing the U.S.-China
relations. By maintaining a close economic tie
with these large corporations, they will continue
to infuence both countries’ political leaders in
making restraint decisions.
5. China has a unique competitiveness in
building infrastructure. Trump’s infrastructure
construction plan might become the new
highlights in U.S.-China cooperation.
6. After more than three decades of cultural
exchanges, both countries have experienced
strong growth in communication from
various aspects, such as tourism, academic
exchanges and immigration. With continuous
encouragement, this trend will continue to make
tremendous contribution in fostering cultural
integration between U.S. and China.
7. The state governments of U.S. have high
degree of autonomy and maintain close
economic ties with China. Such a strong
provincial economic relationship may allow
state governments to assist both U.S. and China
in strengthening its relationship.
8. With the collaborative effort, China and U.S.
can make milestone achievement in global
governance and delivering new forms of public<
