本文在对我国电力生态文明建设、电力发展以及电力生产效率的
现状进行充分了解后,通过调研收集核电行业、火电行业、核电企业
和火电企业的相关数据,基于环境DEA技术模型,将碳排放约束作
为理论基础,对我国的核电与火电生产效率进行比较分析。并利用
Tobit模型,分别从微观和宏观层面探讨了核电与火电的影响因素
得出如下结论:
不管从微观层面还是宏观层面,如果考虑环境成本(碳排放)对
电力生产的影响,核电均比火电具有生产效率方面的优势,也说明大
力发展核电对节能减排、建设生态文明具有重要的促进作用。从比较
分析法看,不管是核电行业还是火电行业,其生产效率虽然在不同的
时间阶段略有波动,但随着时间变化,核电行业与火电行业的效率差
I 距在增大,说明核电行业的生产效率改善程度要高于火电行业。在影
响因素分析方面,企业规模和企业年龄有助于促进核电与火电企业的
生产效率,而宏观方面的经济规模和和技术进步有助于核电与火电产
业的生产效率提高
关键词:生态文明;核电;火电;生产效率;DEA
II THE RESEARCH OF NUCLEAR POWER AND
THERMAL POWER PRODUCTION EFFICIENCY
COMPARISON UNDER THE BACKGROUND OF
CHINA’S ECOLOGICAL CIVILIZATION
CONSTRUCTION
Jiang Mandi (Business Administration)
Directed by Zou Shuliang
Abstract: As a multi-coal, lean-oil, lean-gas energy consumption
country, thermal power generation is the main body of China&39;s power
structure, of which coal-fired power generation is the predominant part.
The large amount of pollution gas and smoke caused by coal-burning
bring tremendous pressure on environment. Since the construction of
ecological civilization was proposed from The 18th CPC National
Congress, this proposal has gained widely attention from all circles of the
society. And the government has also listed the construction of ecological
civilization as one of the important works. In the construction of
resource-saving and environment-friendly society, ecological civilization
will become the main social core tasks. Along with the progressing of
ecological civilization construction, the traditional structure of power will
be gradually adjusted and optimized. Therefore, increase energy
utilization efficiency, decrease the cost and improve the profit, which
in makes great importance on promoting a greener and more sustainable
development of China’s power industry.
In this article, the current situation of power ecological civilization
construction, power industry development and power production
efficiency in China is fully learnt. And the relative data of nuclear power
industry, thermal power industry, nuclear power enterprises and thermal
power enteiprises are collected through investigations and surveys.
Based on the DEA model, carbon emission constraint is taken as the
theoretical foundation, and the production efficiency of China5 s nuclear
power generation and thermal power generation are compared and
analyzed. The Tobit model is used to discuss the influence factor of
nuclear power and thermal power both microscopically and
macroscopically. The conclusions are as follows:
If the influence of environmental cost (carbon emission) on power
generation is considered, nuclear power possesses the advantages on
production efficiency aspect over thermal power, no matter
microscopically or macroscopically. Which indicates that the
development of nuclear power will make great contribution on energy
saving, emission reduction and the construction of ecological civilization.
Through the comparative analysis, no matter in nuclear industry or in
thermal power industay, the production efficiency fluctuates in different
time stages. But as time changes, the efficiency gap between nuclear
IV power industry and thermal power industry are enlarged. Which means,
the degree of improvement of nuclear power industry is higher than that
of thermal power industry. In terms of impact factor analysis, the scale
and age of an enterprise help promoting the production efficiency of
nuclear power enterprise and thermal power enterprise, while the
economy scale and technology development on macroscopic aspects
contribute to improve the production efficiency of nuclear power
enterprise and thermal power enterprise.
Keywords: ecological civilization nuclear power thermal power
power productive efficiency DEA
v 目录
廠 I
Abstract Ill
第1章绪论1.1研宄背景和意义1.1.1研宄背景1.1.2研宄意义1.2国内外研究现状1.2.1生态文明建设与电力发展1.2.2 电力生产效率1.2.3碳排放约束下的电力生产效率1. 2.4电力生产效率影响因素1.2.5 小结1.3研究目标与研宄内容1.3.1研宄目标1.3.2研宄内容1.4研究方法和思路1.4.1研宄方法1.4.2研宄思路第2章相关理论与方法2. 1 电力发展与生态文明2.1.1发展经济学VII 2.1.2可持续发展理论2. 1.3生态文明建设2.1.4环境与经济发展2.1.5 电力发展2.2生产效率的定义和测算2.3考虑非期望产出生产效率研宄方法2. 4本章小结……第3章我国电力结构变化与生态文明建设3.1生态文明建设的内涵3. 2我国电力结构变化特点及其对生态文明建设的贡献3.3核电与火电技术发展的节能减排效果
23
3. 3. 1核电技术发展的节能减排效果
24
3.3.2火电技术发展的节能减排效果
27
3.4本章小结
30
第4章我国核电与火电生产效率比较分析
31
4. 1基于DEA的电力生产效率评价模型
31
4. 1. 1 DEA 模型
31
4. 1. 2基于环境DEA技术的电力生产效率模型
33
4.2 实证思路及数据说明
35
4.2.1实证分析思路
35
4.2.2变量定义及数据说明
37
4.3碳排放约束条件下我国核电与火电生产效率比较
43
VIII 4.3.1微观层面分析结果
43
4.3.2宏观层面分析结果
50
4.4我国核电与火电生产效率影响因素分析
53
4.4.1影响因素实证模型
54
4.4.2实证结果
55
4.5本章小结
57
第5章研宄结论和展望
59
5. 1 研宄结论
59
5. 2 政策启示
60
5.3研宄展望
60
参考文献
63
mi
69
IX
第1幸绪论
第1章绪论
1.1研究背景和意义
1.1.1研究背景
中国正处于新型工业化和城市化的关键时期,能源消费和碳排放的增加,带
来了巨大的环境压力。近年来频频加重的雾霾问题逐渐引起普通民众的关注。在
“十三五”的伊始,我国经济迈入了新常态,“创新、协调、绿色、开放、共享”
五大发展理念被提出,新的五年计划中首次提出了生态文明建设。优化能源结构、
实现绿色循环低碳发展是保障经济可持续、减缓环境压力、推进我国生态文明建
设的关键
为了降低环境污染程度,尽快实现生态文明,《环境保护税法草案》提出要
对排出的污染气体、水、物和噪声等征收环境保护税。大气污染的雾霾现象曰趋
严重,其中煤炭被认为是雾霾成因的罪魁祸首,而燃煤火电恰恰是电力行业生产
的主要形式。我国是一个煤炭丰富,但油和气储量较少的国家,目前电力还是以
火电为主,而火力发电中以燃煤发电为主,煤炭燃烧产生的污染气体和烟尘给环
境带来了巨大的压力。随着生态文明建设的推进,传统的电力结构生产成本将会
逐渐增加,因此需要调整我国电力结构,提高能源利用效率、降低成本提高盈利
核能发电不会排放加重地球温室效应的二氧化碳,也不产生化石燃料(煤、
石油、天然气)发电排放的巨量污染物质,是目前唯一能够大规模替代化石燃料
的清洁能源;发展核能对于我国优化能源结构、减少碳排放具有重要作用:1:。2011
年福岛核事故后,世界核电发展的步伐虽有减缓;但是,面对能源需求和环境污
染压力,我国政府提出了 “安全高效发展核电”的方针政策。并且,党和国家领
导人也高度重视核电的发展,2014年6月在中央财经领导小组第六次会议上,
习总书记就提出要抓紧启动东部沿海地区新的核电项目建设
1.1.2研究意义
目前火电占我国能源的大部分,随着能源消耗和碳排放的不断增加,需优化
调整能源结构,社会经济实现绿色可持续发展。髙效发展核电,必须对我国核电
生产效率的历史和现状进行准确把握,而建立科学的效率评价方法是其必要前提南华大学硕士学位论文
条件。揭示影响效率的因素及其路径、方向和规模是提高效率的关键所在。因此,
研宄
==>>