本文的研究对象是工业污染排放中最常见、治理投入较大、社会关注度较高的工
业隐含废水，相对来说有关研究较少。在此视角下，本文进行了以下研究：
首先从进出口环境影响的四项假说和进出口环境影响的作用机制两个层面
系统地叙述了文章的理论基础。随后，针对本文研究的两个关键问题，即工业进
出口隐含废水量及其影响因素。在界定隐含污染概念的基础上，论文从投入产出
模型和 LMDI 因素分解法两个方法论的角度对国内外有关研究展开梳理，从中分
析比较了不同研究方法的优劣势。并通过经验与实证分析，验证了出口贸易额与
工业废水排放的单向格兰杰关系
其次实证分析从工业隐含废水的测度及其变化影响因素分解两个方面展开
运用 OECD 数据库的连续 I-O 表和其他年鉴数据，构建投入产出模型。本文测
算了 2004-2011 我国工业进出口净隐含废水排放量，分析了其行业分布、变化趋
势以及带来的环境压力。并结合相关数据探讨了加工贸易的进口中间投入对贸易
隐含废水排放量产生的影响。在此基础上，进一步运用 LMDI 因素分解法对工业
隐含废水的影响因素进行分析，探讨其作用机制。在研究结论的基础上，以绍兴
嘉业印染为例，从企业层面探究纺织企业为推进自身的绿色转型而开展的实践，
剥离出实践内容和研究结论的契合点
最后研究结果显示：（1）我国工业各出口行业的废水直接排放强度和完全排
放强度都有显著的下降趋势，且不同行业直接排放强度与完全排放强度差异明显
（2）我国工业进出口创造经济价值的同时，也承接了发达国家的贸易转移污染，
产生了巨大的生态逆差。（3）进出口隐含废水排放的行业分析表明我国隐含废水
排放的行业集中度相当高。（4）进口中间投入的分析表明加工贸易一定程度有利
于废水减排。（5）LMDI 因素分解结果表明规模效应是隐含废水排放量增加的最
大贡献因素，而技术效应是实现隐含废水减排的贡献最大，结构效应的影响程度
最小，且影响方向并不确定。据此，以形成节约资源和保护环境的产业格局、进
出口结构为导向，本文从宏观、中观和微观三个层面提出了推动我国工业行业绿
色发展、工业企业清洁生产的政策建议
关键词：隐含污染；排放强度；I-O 模型；LMDI 因素分解杭州电子科技大学硕士学位论文
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ABSTRACT
The development of import and export is an important driving-force for China&39;s
economic growth, but also to our country&39;s ecological environment has brought huge
pressure. Under this background, many scholars pay attention to embodied pollution
of import and export. Reviews of the literature on trade embodied pollution find that
most of the literature focuses on the measurement and analysis of embodied carbon
emissions, energy consumption, and industrial emissions in international trade. The
research object of this paper concentrate on the industrial embodied wastewater,
relevant research is much less. Follow this study design, following studies are
developed:
First, the paper describe theoretical basis from four theories of trade&39;s impact on
the environment and mechanism of trade&39;s impact on environment. Latter, focusing on
the two key research questions, which is industry trade embodied wastewater and it’s
influenced factors. Based on the concept of “embodied pollution”, the paper comb
domestic and foreign related research from input-output analysis and LMDI model,
and compare the advantage and disadvantage of different research methods. What’s
more, the empirical analysis finds that there is Granger relation between export trade
and industry wastewater emissions.
Secondly, empirical analysis was developed from both measurement of trade
embodied wastewater and analysis of influenced factors. The input-output model was
constructed with the help of continuous I-O tables in OECD database and other
yearbook data. What is listed as the main research problem is net wastewater
emissions 、industry distribution 、trend and environmental pressure brought by
wastewater emissions from China&39;s industrial trade in 2004-2011. Furthermore, The
Impact of Imported Intermediate Inputs on trade embodied wastewater emissions was
discussed. After that, LMDI model is used to analyze influenced factors of industrial
embodied wastewater. Based on research results, taking Jiaye printing and dyeing as
example, the research explore the practices of textile enterprises aiming at promoting
green transformation at the enterprise level, and analyze a series of green practices
that is consistent with the conclusions of this paper.
Finally, results indicate: (1) the direct discharge intensity and the complete杭州电子科技大学硕士学位论文
III
emission intensity of the industrial wastewater of all industries in China have a
significant decreasing trend, and the difference between the direct emission intensity
and the complete emission intensity of different industries is obvious. (2) Not only
China&39;s foreign trades create economic value, but also undertake the trade transfer
pollution of developed countries, which result in a huge ecological deficit. (3) The
industry analysis of the embodied wastewater emissions shows that the industrial
concentration of embodied wastewater emissions is quite high. (4) The analysis of
intermediate inputs indicates that processing trade is to a certain extent favorable to
wastewater reduction. (5)The analyzing results of LMDI model show that scale effect
is the biggest contributor to increase the embodied wastewater emissions, technical
effect is the biggest contributor to decrease the embodied wastewater emissions, and
the strength and direction of structure effect is not sure. Based on research
conclusions, to construct a resource-saving and environmental protection industry
structure and trade structure, the paper puts forward a series of proposals in macro,
middle and micro levels to promote the green development of industrial sectors and
cleaning production of industrial enterprises.
Keywords: Embodied pollution; Emission intensity; I-O model; LMDI model杭州电子科技大学硕士学位论文
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目 录
摘要..I
ABSTRACT ..........II
目 录.IV
1 绪论 ..1
1.1 研究背景.....1
1.2 研究目的和意义...........3
1.2.1 研究目的 ...........3
1.2.2 研究意义 ...........3
1.3 研究内容.....4
1.4 技术路线.....5
1.5 研究创新点...6
2 理论基础和研究综述 7
2.1 进出口环境影响理论基础...7
2.1.1 环境库兹涅茨曲线 ...7
2.1.2 污染天堂假说 .......8
2.1.3 进出口隐含污染责任归属 .........9
2.1.4 向底线赛跑假说 ....10
2.2 进出口环境影响的机制....11
2.3 进出口隐含污染研究综述..13
2.3.1 隐含污染测度研究 ..14
2.3.2 隐含污染因素分解分析 ..........18
2.3.3 研究评述 ..........24
2.4 本章小结....24
3 我国进出口和工业污染发展概况及关系检验...25
3.1 我国进出口发展概况......25
3.1.1 进出口总量持续增长 25
3.1.2 出口市场不断扩大 ..27
3.1.3 进出口结构渐趋优化 29
3.1.4 进出口贸易方式趋于合理 ........31
3.2 我国工业污染现状........32
3.3 出口贸易与工业污染的 Granger 因果关系检验 .......35杭州电子科技大学硕士学位论文
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3.3.1 数据说明 ..........35
3.3.2 时间序列平稳性检验 ..........
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