20 世 纪 90 年 代 后 ， 一 种 崭 新 的 融 资 模 式 PPP 模 式
（Public-Private-Partnership，即“公共部门-私人部门-合作”的模式）在西
方特别是欧洲流行起来，在公共基础设施领域，尤其是在大型、一次性的项目，
如公路、铁路、地铁等的建设中扮演了重要的角色。2016 年，PPP 模式在我国取
得了爆发式的发展，该模式作为社会资本和政府方工作的全新模式，正日益为社
会所接受。但是，由于我国 PPP 模式发展起步晚，针对 PPP 模式风险的研究较少，
目前存量的 PPP 项目出现了许多的问题，导致了项目的失败。本文正是在这样的
发展背景下，选择 PPP 项目风险管理作为研究课题，旨在为 PPP 项目的投资决策
提供理论参考

在具体的研究方法中，本文首先基于理论研究，论述了 PPP 项目风险管理的
内涵，分析了目前存量 PPP 项目失败的原因，识别导致项目失败的风险；其次，
进行案例分析，选择 NB 市“五路四桥”PPP 项目进行项目分析，通过项目分析，
旨在寻找到一套 PPP 项目研究的流程和方法，得到 PPP 项目风险量化的模型；最
后本文运用了层次分析法建模，通过层次分析法对权重的计算，能够把定性的风
险进行定量分析，有助于在实际项目考察中判断项目的投资风险，为投资者决策
提供数据参考

本文的研究结论主要有：通过总结 PPP 项目失败案例，PPP 项目的风险应该
重点防范政治风险、法律风险、建设与运营风险、财务风险四类风险。这四类风
险可进行细分，并对细分风险进行比较，运用层次分析法建模量化上述风险。根
据量化风险的大小判断项目是否具有投资价值

本文的创新点主要有：通过分析存量项目失败的案例，识别出导致项目失败
的风险因素，并对风险因素进行分类。运用层次分析法对识别出的风险进行量化
得出风险评分模型。将该模型应用于实际 PPP 项目中进行实证研究，检验风险评
分模型的实用性

关键词：PPP 项目；风险管理；层次分析法基于层次分析法的 PPP 项目风险管理研究——以 NB“五路四桥”项目为例
II
Abstract
Based on the theory of financial risk, this paper starts from the actual
situation of the development of China&39;s PPP model, with reference to the
domestic and international risk management theory and methods, the risk
management of the PPP is carried out.
After 1990s, a new financing pattern PPP (Public-Private-Partnership,
namely public sector - private sector cooperation mode) in the west especially
popular in Europe, in the field of public infrastructure, especially in large, one-off
projects such as construction of highway, railway, subway and other plays an
important the role of. In 2016, the PPP model has been developed in China,
which is a new mode of social capital and government work. However, due to the
late start of the development of PPP model in China, there are few studies on the
risk of PPP model, the current stock of PPP projects have many problems,
resulting in the failure of the project. Under the background of this development,
this paper chooses PPP project risk management as the research subject, in order
to provide theoretical reference for the investment decision of PPP project.
In specific research methods, this paper based on the theoretical research,
discusses the connotation of PPP project risk management, analyzes the reasons
of the stock of PPP project failure at present, identify the cause of the risk of
project failure; secondly, analyzing the case, select the NB five road and four
bridges&39; PPP project through the project analysis, project analysis in order to find
a set of process and method of PPP project, PPP project risk quantification model;
finally, using the AHP model, through the analytic calculation of the weights of
the method can make qualitative risk quantitative analysis is helpful to judge the
project investment risk in the actual project, provide reference data for investors.
The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: through the summary of
PPP project failure cases, the risk of PPP project should focus on four types of
risks: political risk, legal risk, construction and operational risk, financial risk.
These four types of risk can be subdivided, and the risk of subdivision is
compared. Determine whether the project has investment value according to the
size of the quantitative risk.
The innovation points of this paper are as follows: through the analysis of
the failure cases of stock items, we can identify the risk factors leading to the
failure of the project, and classify the risk factors. The model is applied to the
actual PPP project to carry out empirical research to test the practicability of risk
scoring model.基于层次分析法的 PPP 项目风险管理研究——以 NB“五路四桥”项目为例
III
Key words: PPP Project; Risk Management; HierarchyAnalytic Metho基于层次分析法的 PPP 项目风险管理研究——以 NB“五路四桥”项目为例
IV
目 录
中文摘要… Ⅰ
英文摘要… Ⅱ
目 录… Ⅲ
1 绪论....1
1.1 选题背景与研究意义....1
1.1.1 选题的背景1
1.1.2 研究的意义2
1.2 文献综述3
1.2.1 国外研究综述.........3
1.2.2 国内研究综述.........4
1.3 研究的内容及技术路线6
1.4 本章小结7
2 PPP 项目及其风险管理研究.8
2.1 PPP 项目及其风险内涵.8
2.1.1 PPP 项目界定.........8
2.1.2 PPP 项目实施.......10
2.1.3 PPP 项目风险内涵...........12
2.2 PPP 项目风险识别.......13
2.2.1 PPP 项目政治风险识别...14
2.2.2 PPP 项目法律风险识别...15
2.2.3 PPP 项目建设与运营风险识别...16
2.2.4 PPP 项目财务风险识别...17
2.3 本章小结..........19
3 PPP 项目风险评价模型构建...........20
3.1 风险评价模型比较.......20
3.1.1 类比法模型..........20
3.1.2 模拟法模型..........21
3.1.3 层次分析法模型.........
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