Eq
ui
ty
R
es
ea
rc
h
Eq
ui
ty
R
es
ea
rc
h
Re
po
rt
证
券
研
究
报
告
P
ro
pe
rty
S
ec
to
r
S
ec
to
r R
ep
or
t
股
票
研
究
行
业
报
告
证
券
研
究
报
告
房
地
产
行
业
Sector Report: Property Sector Van Liu 刘斐凡
行业报告：房地产行业+86 755 2397 6672
liufeifan@gtjas
29 June 2017
Increasing Market Concentration with Stable Commodity
Housing Sales and Sustainable Growth Prospect for Property
Leaders, Upgrade to Outperform
稳定商品房销售下的市场集中度提高，房地产龙头可持续增长预期，上调至“跑赢大市”
显示信息，或将命令回显打开或关上。

ECHO [ON | OFF]
ECHO [message]

要显示当前回显设置，键入不带参数的 ECHO。

housing sales should be maintained at strong levels in absolute terms due to
urbanization, housing replacement demand, monetization of squatter
settlement rebuilding and the recovery of the global economy. In 2017, we
estimate that the YoY growth range of commodity house sales and GFA YoY
growth range should be between 0%-5% and -5%-0%, respectively, and
estimate GFA newly started and investment to record around an 8.0% YoY
increase and 7.0% YoY increase, respectively.
显示信息，或将命令回显打开或关上。

ECHO [ON | OFF]
ECHO [message]

要显示当前回显设置，键入不带参数的 ECHO。

in market share for property leaders. The market share of the top 50
property developers increased in terms of amount/GFA from 24.6%/14.2% in
2012 to 35.3%/22.2% in 2017, respectively. During Jan.-May 2017, the top 10
property developers gained more market share than the top 11-20, top 21-50
and top 51-100 property developers, respectively.
显示信息，或将命令回显打开或关上。

ECHO [ON | OFF]
ECHO [message]

要显示当前回显设置，键入不带参数的 ECHO。

PBR, property sector valuation is not attractive, but the historical PER and
PBR has not completely factored in strong financial results since 2015. In
addition, property leaders listed on the HK stock market exhibited better
fundamentals than those of property leaders listed on the A-share market.
With southbound fund inflow, the property sector valuation gap between the
HK stock market and the A-Share market will decrease, thus, there is still
upside potential for property sector valuation in the HK stock market. Our top
pick is Longfor Properties (00960 HK), which is expected to be in a healthy
financial position, have sustainable revenue growth and stable margins. We
revise up Longfor Properties&39; target price from HK$15.07 to HK$20.00,
representing a 15% discount to its 2017E NAV, 9.1x 2017 underlying PER and
1.5x 2017 PBR.
显示信息，或将命令回显打开或关上。

ECHO [ON | OFF]
ECHO [message]

要显示当前回显设置，键入不带参数的 ECHO。

安置和全球经济复苏，商品房销售应会维持在一个较大体量的绝对值。在2017年，我们
预计商品房销售额和销售面积的同比增长区间为0%-5%和-5%-0%，并预计新开工和投资
分别录得8.0%和7.0%的同比增长。

显示信息，或将命令回显打开或关上。

ECHO [ON | OFF]
ECHO [message]

要显示当前回显设置，键入不带参数的 ECHO。

积计的市场份额从2012年的24.6%/14.2%提升至2017年35.3%/22.2%。在2017年1-5
月，TOP10房企较TOP11-20，TOP21-50和TOP51-100的房企获得更多市场份额。

显示信息，或将命令回显打开或关上。

ECHO [ON | OFF]
ECHO [message]

要显示当前回显设置，键入不带参数的 ECHO。

市盈率和市净率没有完全考虑到自2015年以来的强劲财务状况。另外，香港上市的房地
产龙头较A股上市的房地产龙头展现了更好的基本面。南下资金的流入，港股市场和A股
市场房地产公司估值的差异将会缩小，因而港股市场地产行业估值仍有上升潜力。我们的
首选是龙湖地产（00960 HK），预计拥有稳定毛利率和健康财务状况下的可持续增长。我
们将龙湖地产的目标价从15.07港元上调至20.00港元，较2017每股净资产折让15%，
9.1倍2017年核心市盈率和1.5倍2017年市净率。

Rating: Outperform
Upgraded
评级： 跑赢大市 (上调)
Property Sector Key Data
房地产关键数据
Source: Wind.
Coverage Companies Performance
覆盖公司表现
Source: Bloomberg.
Company Name 公司名称 Code 编号 Price 股价(HK$) Rating 投资评级 17 PER 市盈率(x) 18 PER 市盈率(x) 19 PER 市盈率(x) 17 ROE 净资产收益率(%) 17 P/B 市净率(x) 17 Yield 股息率(%)
China Overseas 00688 22.900 Accumulate 8.4 7.3 6.5 14.2 1.0 4.1
China Res Land 01109 22.300 Accumulate 7.9 6.9 6.0 17.8 1.1 3.1
Longfor Properties 00960 16.160 Buy 7.2 6.6 5.2 19.3 1.2 4.6
Country Garden 02007 8.730 Buy 8.9 6.8 5.2 24.3 1.9 3.7
Evergrande 03333 13.560 Buy 10.1 7.4 6.8 21.5 1.4 5.4
Shenzhen Invest 00604 3.470 Buy 8.5 7.7 6.8 10.4 0.8 5.3
China Aoyuan 03883 2.290 Accumulate 3.7 3.2 2.7 16.8 0.5 11.9
Modern Land 01107 1.230 Buy 3.2 2.8 2.5 18.6 0.4 8.5
Powerlong Real Estate 01238 3.350 Buy 4.7 4.1 3.5 13.6 0.5 6.0
Sh Ind Urban 00563 1.700 Accumulate 14.9 14.0 13.4 4.7 0.6 2.1
Weighted Average.
市值加权平均 Outperform 8.6 7.1 6.1 18.6 1.3 4.3
Source: the Companies, Bloomberg, Guotai Junan International.
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
20072008200920102011201220132014201520162017
Investment YoYGFA newly constructed YoY
GFA sold YoYCommodity Building Sold YoY
Commodity Building Area Sold (Residential) YoY
29
Ju
ne17

Pro
pe
rty
Se
cto
r 房
地产
行业

Se
cto
r R
ep
ort

Property Sector

See the last page for disclaimerPage 2 of 39

Table of Contents

Policy and Monetary Environment ......... 3
Sector Fundamentals and Characteristics ......... 7
Valuation .......... 14
Investment Rating and Top Pick .......... 17
Company Report: China Overseas (00688 HK) ........... 19
Company Report: China Resources Land (01109 HK)21
Company Report: Country Garden (02007 HK)25
Company Report: Evergrande (03333 HK) ........ 27
Company Report: Shenzhen Invest (00604 HK) .......... 29
Company Report: Modern Land (01107 HK) ..... 33
Company Report: Sh Ind Urban (00563 HK) ..... 37