中文摘要 伴随着我国的国民经济飞速发展以及改革开放的日益深化,房地产业逐 渐变成我国国民经济中的非常重要的一个组成部分,它不仅能创造税收、促 进投资的增长、还能对相关产业的消费起到很大的带动作用。面对全球性的 金融危机,为了减缓它对我国实体经济的影响,扩大内需成为我国政府应对 金融危机的主要手段。住房消费作为扩大内需的路径之一,能够拉动整个房 地产产业链的发展。目前,我国对房地产行业的宏观调控政策正日益趋紧, 未来将面临着新一轮的洗牌。 众所周知,房地产行业是一个风险高、投入高、收益也高的行业的。项 目开发企业为了能够提高房地产项目的收益同时规避项目可能带来的风险, 可行性分析就成了项目开发前期所必备的一项工作。比较准确的可行性研究 是房地产开发企业在进行项目决策时重要的基础。可行性研究的根本目的在 于促进项目决策更加科学、民主,从而最大程度地降低决策失误的可能性, 提高项目的经济效益、社会效益和环境效益。所以,房地产幵发项目成败的 关键在于是否能在前期进行既全面又完善的可行性论证工作。 本文通过釆用项目区域环境分析、项目投资估算、项目财务评价、项目 风险分析和控制等手段,对成都高新区光电产业园配套生活区项目可行性进 行了分析和研究。首先,本文从成都市的城市宏观经济环境入手,分析了成 都市的经济环境、城市规划、光电产业发展,房地产市场等要素的发展阶段。 在此基础上,分区域对成都市的房地产细分市场进行了分析与预测,归纳总 结了成都市房地产市场发展和投资的演进规律,并应用于成都高新区光电产 业园配套生活区项目。接着,本文对该房地产项目相关的环境因素、社会经 济等方面进行综合的分析、判断和评价。最后,运用财务评价的方法得出项 目在投资开发中的各种指标,从而判断项目在经济上是否合理。最终本文得 出了本项目在技术、财务、社会效益等方面是可行的结论。 成都高新区光电产业园配套生活区项目可行性研究 本文的意义在于试图阐述一个更加综合和完善的房地产可行性分析流 程,这有利于今后类似房地产开发项目更好地进行前期投资分析,也为他们 提交更为规范的项目可行性报告提供了一个具有参考价值的参照物。其创新 之处主要体现在:除了分析项目的经济效益,还分析了它的社会效益、环境 效益;在实际的分析中综合运用了敏感性分析,使分析更加具有动态意义; 加重了对项目风险的识别和防范部分的笔墨,体现了目前项目管理中重视风 险的主流思潮;在研究资料的搜集上釆取了实践调查的方法,通过市场调查、 参阅官方统计数据、与目标客户群面谈、走访周边楼盘等方式。 关键词:房地产项目可行性研究财务评价风险分析 2 Abstract Abstract With the rapid development of China's national economy and the continuously deepening of reform and opening up, China's real estate has become an important part of the national economy which can create tax revenue effectively, promoted growth of investment and stimulated consumption of related industries. Under the background of the global financial crisis, China is trying to alleviate the impact of the financial crisis on China's real economy by expanding domestic demands. As a way of expanding domestic demand, the consumption of housing is able to promote the development of the entire chain of real estate industry. Presently, along with the tightening of our macroeconomic regulation and control of the real estate industry, China's real estate industry will face new challenge. The characteristics of real estate industry is high-risk high-involvement and high-yield. In order to increase revenue and avoid risks, the analysis of feasibility has become a necessary pre-work for a real estate program. A comparatively precise study of feasibility is the foundation of decision-making and the key document in real estate companies. The primary purpose of a feasibility study is to make decision-making scientifically and democratically. Thereby the company can minimize or avoid the failure of investment, and improve economic benefits, social benefit and environmental benefit of real estate projects. Therefore, the preparation of getting success to a real estate project is doing a study of feasibility comprehensively and impeccably. It has theoretical and realistic significance of strengthening the feasibility study by adopting scientific and rational methods to make decision and to do prevention. This paper studies the feasibility of the living supporting project in photoelectric industrial park in Chengdu high-tech zone by analyzing the regional environment, conducting investment estimation, evaluating the finance and analyzing the risk of this project. Firstly, beginning from the analyzing of Chengdu's macroeconomic environment, this paper studies Chengdu's economic The Feasibility Study of the Living Supporting Project of Optoelectronics Industrial Park in Chengdu High-tech Zone environment, urban planning, development of photoelectric industry and the stages of development of market. Based on the analyzing above, this paper analyzes and predicts the regional segment market of the real estate market in Chengdu, summarizes the rules of real estate in Chengdu and applies it to this living supporting project. Then this paper conducts comprehensive analysis, judgment and evaluation of the engineering technology, environmental factors and social economic, etc. Then, in order to judge the economic rationality, this paper calculates various kinds of index by the way of appraisaling finance. Finally, it is concluded that the project is feasible on the aspect of technological, financial and social benefits. This paper tries to establish a more comprehensive and perfect model of analyzing the feasibility of real estate project. It is helpful for similar projects to make a better prophase investment and to establish a valuable standard of writing feasibility report. The innovations of this paper are as follows: Besides analyzing the economic benefits, it also analyzes its social benefits and environmental benefits. It conducts a sensitive analysis which has a more dynamic sense. It emphasizes the risk identification and prevention in the report which reflects the ideological trend in modern project management. On the aspect of collecting data, this paper adopts a survey methods, such as doing market surveys, consulting the official statisties,interviewing with the target customer group and visiting real estate nearby, etc. Key words: Real Estate Project; Feasibility Study; Financial Evaluation; Risk Analysis 目录 目录 1. ^ 1 1.1研究背景 1 1.2研究目的及意义 2 1.2.1研究目的 2 1.2.2研究意义 3 1.3国内外研究综述 4 1.3.1国外研究综述 4 1.3.2国内研究综述 5 1.4研究方法思路与及报告内容框架 7 1.4.1研究方法 7 1.4.2研究思路与报告框架 7 2.建设项目概况 9 2.1项目业主基本情况 9 2.2项目概况 10 2.3可行性研究报告的编制依据 11 3.项目市场分析 12 3.1光电产业相关背景 13 3.1.1光电产业定义 13 3.1.2光电产业发展趋势 13 3.1.3省政府支持光电显示产业在成都高新区集群式发展 14 3.1.4成都光电产业的发展与规划 14 3.1.5成都高新区光电(显示)产业发展的五大相对优势 15 成都高新区光电产业园配套生活区项目可行性研究 3.1.6富士康在成都投资建立产业基地 16 3.2国家宏观政策调控对房地产行业的影响 16 3.2.1政府加大对房地产市场的调控力度 16 3.2.2从长期来看,我国房地产业将持续发展 18 3.3成都房地产市场分析与预测 18 3.3.1成都市房地产需求分析 19 3.3.2近几年成都市房地产供求分析 19 3.3.3未来几年成都市房地产市场预测 29 3.4本项目市场分析 30 3.4.1项目区位分析 30 3.4.2项目定价 31 3.4.3项目市场定位 31 3.4.4项目优劣势分析 31 4.项目建设条件 33 4.1社会经济条件 33 4.1.1成都市社会经济发展概况 33 4.1.2成都高新区社会经济发展概况 33 4.2自然条件 34 4.2.1地理位置 34 4.2.2交通条件 34 4.2.3地形地貌 34 4.2.4气候特征 35 4.2.5水系水文 35 4.2.6生态环境 35 4.2.7地质条件 35 4.3建设条件 36 4.3.1 供电 36 4.3.2 供水 36 4.3.3 供气 36 4.3.4 通讯 37 2 目录 5.建设规模与设计方案 38 5.1建设规模及主要技术经济指标 38 5.2项目规划分期 39 5.3规划设计方案 40 5.3.1设计思想 40 5.3.2设计定位 40 5.3.3楼型设计 41 5.3.4户型设计 : 41 5.3.5建筑单体设计 41 5.3.6结构设计 42 5.3.7安装设计 42 5.3.8智能化设计 42 5.3.9节能设计 42 5.3.10道路交通规划 43 5.3.11外部环境 43 6.職_评价 44 6.1环境现状 44 6.2采用标准 44 6.3本项目建设主要污染因素分析 45 6.4环境保护方案 45 6.4.1施工期间污染物治理措施 45 6.4.2运营期污染物治理措施 47 6.5环境影响评价 47 7.社会评价 48 7.1提升光电产业园区及整个西部园区的投资环境 48 7.2推动西部园区板块房地产市场的发展 48 7.3带动相关产业经济发展 .....48 8.财务分析 50 8.1投资估算与融资方案 50 3 成都高新区光电产业园配套生活区项目可行性研究 8.1.