2013年的A股市场,可谓是冰火两重天,反映中国宏观经济形势的蓝筹股

没有起色,上交所的成交量屡低于深交所已成常态,大盘股的市盈率、银行股

破净为上交所成交清淡提供注脚。虽然上证综指全年回落6.75%,但有接近70%

的上市公司市值却出现增长,有72%的行业上市公司市值实现增长,呈现出明

显的结构性牛市特征,这些行业分别是高科技、互联网、文化、消费、医药、

环保等。在这样的背景下,作为一名个人投资者,我们应该如何选择投资标的,

如何判断上市公司股票的投资价值呢遵循自上而下的选股策略,秉承价值投

资理念,本文选取了医疗器械板块的二家上市公司——九安医疗和新华医疗,

收集了公司2008—2012年财务及经营数据,运用公司自由现金流量折现模型和

市盈率模型,对二家公司的股价进行估值,力图为投资者的投资决策提供客观、

科学、合理的依据。

本文共分为六章,第一章提出论文的研究背景、研究的主要问题和意义。

第二章介绍了我国医疗器械行业的发展现状和趋势,以及发展中存在的主要问

题,以期投资者对医疗器械行业的整体状况有一个基本的了解。第三章是对上

市公司的商业模式、核心竞争力和市场前景分析。第四章进行历史财务数据分

析,并对主要经营财务数据进行预测,全面认识九安医疗和新华医疗。第五章

分别采用自由现金流折现法和市盈率法对二家公司进行估值,估算出二家公司

的合理价格区间,预测结果及给出启示。第六章归纳研究的主要结论,包括行

业分析结论、企业分析结论和估值结论,并根据估值结果给出对二家公司的投

资建议。

本文经过分析,认为九安医疗的股价脱离公司实际的财务业绩,股价泡沫

严重,而新华医疗的成长性和业绩都稳定可期,公司目前股价被低估,建议头

入并持有。同时作者提出几点投资建议:①在当前的宏观经济背景下,我们推

荐自上而下的选股策略,首先挑选出增长明确、空间广阔的行业。②选定行业

之后,再去行业中挑选业绩兑现确定,未来成长可期的优质个股。

关键词:医疗产业;股票估值;自由现金流量

Abstract

2013 A stock market, it is Rainbow Night, reflect the Chinese macroeconomic

situation of the blue chip is no improvement, the SSE trading volume has less than

the Shenzhen Stock Exchange has become the norm,the stock market price earnings

ratio, banking stocks breaking the net for the SSE traded light to provide a footnote.

Although the Shanghai Composite Index fell to 6.75% year, but nearly 70% of the

market value of listing Corporation has increased,there are 72% industry market

value of listing Corporation to achieve growth, showing a structural bull market

characteristics, these industries are high-tech,Internet, culture, consumption,

medicine, environmental protection. In this context, as an individual investor, how

should we choose investment targets, how to determine the listing Corporation's

stock investment value Following the top-down selection strategy, receives the

value investment idea, this paper selects the medical section of the two listing

Corporation ~ Andon Medical and Shinva Medical, collect the company from 2008

to 2012 financial and operating data, using the discount free cash flow model and

price earnings ratio model, the valuation of the two company's stock price, in order to

provide objective,scientific,rational basis for investors to make investment decision.

This paper is divided into six chapters,the main problems and the significance

of research background, the first chapter of this paper. The second chapter introduces

the development status and trend of China's medical industry, the main problems and

the development of the overall situation, in order to investors in the medical device

industry to have a basic understanding of the. The third chapter is the analysis of the

listing Corporation's business model, core competence and market prospect. The

fourth chapter analyzes the historical financial data, and carries on the forecast to the

main business of financial data, a comprehensive understanding of Andon Medical

and Shinva Medical. The fifth chapter uses the discounted free cash flow and

earnings of the valuation method of two companies, two companies estimate the

reasonable price interval, and the valuation method of error prompt. The main

conclusions of the sixth chapter research conclusion, including industry, business

analysis and valuation conclusion,and according to the valuation results are given for

two companies investment advice.

After analysis, think that Andon Medical shares from the company actual

financial performance, stock price bubble serious, and Shinva Medical growth and

performance is stable, the current stock price is undervalued, buy and hold. At the

same time, the author put forward some investment advice: in the current

macro-economic background,we recommend the top-down selection strategies, &st

select the growth of clear, broad space industry. After the selected sectors, to

determine the selection of cash performance in the industry, the future development

of high-quality stocks.

Keywords: Medical industry ;Stock valuations; FCF

第一章研究概述

第一节研究背景

2013年的A股市场,两极分化明显,纵观各大指数:上证综指全年回落

6.75%,深成指下跌10.91%,中小板指数上涨16.84%,创业板指数与大盘形成

鲜明对比,独自狂舞,累计涨幅高达83.23%。行业方面,按照行业性质不同,

我们将行业分为上游、中游、下游、TMT和金融地产五个板块,下游的医疗器械

行业涨幅排名第一,高达91. 44%;其次是TMT板块,平均为66.5%;医药板块

排名第三,上涨45. 39%;金融地产下跌7.3%,排名垫底。估值方面,截止2013

年12月31日,A股市场平均PE仅为11. 29倍,同期医药板块的PE为35倍,

而作为医药板块下面的细分子行业,医疗器械板块的平均PE却高达82. 82倍。