山东省进出口贸易虽然整体呈现上升趋势,但近十年增长率波动却非常大。

由于进出口贸易是拉动经济增长的一个重要原因,进出口贸易增长率的大幅度波

动会影响内部经济,甚至出现负的增长,作为经济三架马车之一必然会带来经济

增长率的大幅度波动,形成不良影响。经济增长率的大幅度波动会造成资源浪费,

并会导致经济混乱的负面影响。因此,研究山东省进出口贸易摩擦的主要影响因

素,分析山东省进出口贸易摩擦的主要影响因素对山东省进出口(特别是出口)

的不同影响程度和作用机理,并建立各山东省进出口贸易摩擦的主要影响因素与

山东省进出口贸易总量之间的经济模型是非常必要的,对于科学地促进山东省对

外贸易进出口和山东国民经济的持续、健康、稳定发展来说,具有重要的现实意

义。

本文首先阐明研究的背景、目的和意义、研究的内容、方法和思路,然后进

行文献回顾,找到本文研究的出发点和理论基础。本文分析对外贸易摩擦概况及

山东省对外贸易摩擦的影响因素,对新时期贸易摩擦的形式、特点等进行分析归

纳;在此基础上,结合山东省进出口企业的具体情况,分析其受贸易摩擦影响的

根本原因。然后,运用贸易引力模型对受贸易摩擦影响的进出口情况进行定量分

析评估;最后,在结合定性及定量分析的基础上,提出一定的政策或行业建议。

本文选择山东省作为研究对象,并努力从理论分析和方法选择及运用上实现

进出口贸易摩擦影响因素的实证研究,以期望得出更加可靠有效的有益于区域进

出口贸易发展的政策结论。一方面为山东省、乃至中国其它省份进出口贸易影响

因素研究的进一步发展提供一定的理论基础,另一方面也为区域经济贸易政策的

制定提供一定的定量依据,因此本课题的研究既具有一定的学术价值又具有一定

的现实意义。

关键词:贸易摩擦进出口山东省影响因素

A THEORETICAL AND EMPIRICAL STUDY ON

TRADE FRICTION OF FOREIGN TRADE

ENTERPRISE IN SHANDONG PROVINCE

A

ABSTRACT

Shandong Province, import and export trade, although the overall upward trend,

but it the nearly annual growth rate volatility is very large. Import and export trade is

an important reason to spur economic growth, the growth rate of import and export

trade of large fluctuations will affect the domestic economy, or even negative growth,

the economic growth rate as the economic troika, one is bound to bring a substantial

fluctuation in the formation of the adverse effects. Large fluctuations of the rate of

economic growth will be a waste of resources, and will lead to the negative impact of

economic chaos. Therefore, the main factors affecting Shandong Province import and

export trade friction, analyze the different effects of the extent and mechanism of the

main influencing factors on the import and export (especially on the export) of

Shandong Province import and export trade friction, and the establishment of the

major impact of each Shandong Province, import and export trade friction between

the factors and the total import and export trade in Shandong Province, the economic

model is very necessary for science to promote the import and export of foreign trade

in Shandong Province and Shandong sustained, healthy and stable development of the

national economy, has important practical significance.

The paper first clarifies the background to the study, the purpose and significance

of the study, the methods and ideas, and then carries out the review of the literature to

find the starting point of this study and the theoretical basis. This paper analyzes the

impact of foreign trade friction Description and Shandong Foreign Trade friction

factors, analyzed and summarized on the form of a new era of trade friction

characteristics, combined with the specific circumstances of the import and export

enterprises in Shandong Province; based on analysis by trade friction affect the

fundamental reason. Then, the use of trade gravity model analysis and evaluation of