BCG价值管理框架(英文版) BCG’S VALUE MANAGEMENT FRAMEWORK AN OVERVIEW FOR MBA STUDENTS By Rawley Thomas Director of Research WHAT GETS MEASURED GETS DONE MANY ASSETS FOLLOW THE SAMEUSEFUL OUTPUT PATTERN AS A CAR ... HE MARKET EXPECTS THE PERFORMANCE OF MERCK TO FADE ...(REGRESS TOWARD MEAN PERFORMANCE) APPROACH TO IMPLEMENTATION What Full Effort Might Look Like COMPARISON OF COST OF CAPITAL MEASUREMENT METHODS STUDIES USING MARKET DERIVED METHODS BCG/HOLT RESEARCH USING MARKET DERIVED METHODS by Rawley Thomas MARKET DERIVED DISCOUNT RATE BCG’S METHOD FOR DERIVING INVESTOR DISCOUNT RATES (WACC’s) DIFFERS FROM TRADTIONAL CAPM METHODS. WE START WITH A SAMPLE AND A VALUATION MODEL TO DERIVE A WACC. THEN WE SPLIT THE WACC INTO ITS DEBT AND EQUITY COMPONENTS. FROM THE EQUITY RATE, WE CALCULATE THE RISK PREMIUM OVER GOVERNMENT BOND RATES. CFROI’S CORRELATE HIGHLY WITH THE FUNDAMENTALS OF INFLATION, AND CORPORATE TAXES 1996 DISCOUNT RATE SAMPLE TO SMOOTH ECONOMIC CYCLES, BUT INCORPORATE STRUCTURAL SHIFTS, BCG’S VALUATION  MODEL ASSUMES CURRENT CFROI LEVELS FADE TOWARD THE 5-YEAR PAST MEDIAN OF THE DISCOUNT RATE SAMPLE AT A 10% RATE BCG’S VALUATION MODEL ANTICIPATES THAT THE GROSS ASSET GROWTH RATE OF ALL COMPANIES IN THE USA FADE TOWARD THE LONG TERM ECONOMY AVERAGE THE INVESTORS’ DISCOUNT RATE IS THAT RATE WHICH EQUATES THE PRESENT VALUE OF CASH FLOWS FROM BCG’S VALUATION MODEL TO THE MARKET VALUE OF DEBT AND EQUITY CALCULATION OF FUTURE CASH FLOWS AND PRESENT VALUES 1996 DISCOUNT RATE SAMPLE PAST RESOURCES COMMITTED 1996 DISCOUNT RATE SAMPLE CALCULATION OF ASSET ADDITIONS 1996 DISCOUNT RATE SAMPLE BCG DECOMPOSES THE WEIGHTED AVERAGE REAL COSTS OF CAPITAL INTO THEIR DEBT AND EQUITY COMPONENTS USING MARKET WEIGHTS MARKET % DEBT/TOTAL CAPITAL HAS DECLINED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE 1990 Real Equity Discount Rates Decompose into the Fundamentals of Tax Premiums, Leverage Risk Premiums, CFROI’s & Sub-Par Returns USA - 1950-1997 CFROI’S NORMALLY EXCEED THE MARKET DERIVED DISCOUNT RATES 1996 DISCOUNT RATE SAMPLE CFROI’S NORMALLY EXCEED THE MARKET DERIVED DISCOUNT RATES Even though many economists believe that all returns must converge, in a healthy capitalist economy, CFROI’s on hard assets will exceed investor required returns on financial assets most of the time, because: Continuous new entrepreneurial innovations prevent CFROI’s from converging completely to promised financial returns (imperfect arbitrage) and Entrepreneurs must be rewarded with greater returns to assume the greater dispersion and higher risk of loss associated with CFROI’s on illiquid hard assets compared to financial returns on marketable, liquid financial assets ......