摘
要
摘要
随着跨境电子商务的发展，越来越多的传统生产制造型出口企业开始转型，
想在跨境电子商务浪潮中分得一杯羹。然而，转型发展必然带来影响企业正常运
营的风险，面对全球经济下滑、各国政治纷争、新兴行业不确定性、竞争环境更
为激烈等外界环境的变化，以及中小企业内部缺陷，中小型传统生产制造出口企
业大都面临转型带来的诸多风险，如何解决这类企业转型的风险是亟需研究的问
题。
本文以宁波慈溪 MAX电器有限公司为例进行具体分析。通过对国内外转型
风险研究理论成果进行分析和总结，立足于系统工程和风险管理的理论方法，结
合中小型生产制造型出口企业特点，详细分析了 MAX公司发展转型现状，采用实
地访谈的方法，识别 MAX公司转型风险的类型和因素，包括国际形势风险、交易
风险、供应链风险、公司治理风险、资金风险、员工流失风险、市场风险。根据
统计学相关知识和指标特性构建了一套 MAX公司转型风险评估指标体系，通过
AHP层次分析法建立MAX公司转型风险模糊综合评估模型，并利用该模型评估
了 MAX公司的各类转型风险影响程度。结果显示该公司的转型风险等级处于一般
和较高之间，其中市场营销的风险最高。最后针对 MAX公司转型风险评估结果，
对各项风险提出了相应的应对措施，希望能够提升 MAX公司转型风险管理能力。
总之，通过对 MAX公司的转型风险进行识别分析并定量化评估，提出有针
对性的转型风险管控措施，达到降低企业转型风险，提高企业转型成功率的目的。
关键词：中小型生产制造出口企业；转型风险；模糊综合评估；风险管理
I
Abstract
Abstract
With the development of cross-border e-commerce, more and more traditional
manufacturing export enterprises begin to transform, hoping to get a share of the tide of
cross-border e-commerce.Transformationinevitably, however,affectsthe normal
operation of enterprises. In the face of the global economic downturn, national political
disputes, the uncertainty of emerging industries, the more competitive environment, as
wellasthe internaldefectsofsmallandmedium-sizedenterprise,small and
medium-sized manufacturing enterprises are facing a lot of risks brought about by the
transformation. How to solve the risk of this kind of enterprise transformation is an
urgent problem to study.
In this paper, Ningbo Cixi Max Electrical Appliance Co., Ltd. is used as an
example for specific analysis. By analyzing and summarizing the theoretical research
results of transformation risk at home and abroad, and based on the theoretical methods
of system engineering and risk management, combined with the characteristics of small
and medium-sized manufacturing export enterprises, this paper analyzes in detail the
development and transformation status of MAX Company, and identifies the types and
factors of transformation risk of MAX Company through field interviews. It includes
international situation risks, transaction risks, supply chain risks, corporate governance
risks, capital risks, staff turnover risks and marketing risks. According to the relevant
statistical knowledge and index characteristics, a set of MAX company transformation
risk evaluation index system is constructed, and a vague comprehensive evaluation
model of MAX company transformation risk is established by AHP, and the influence
degree of various transformation risks of MAX Company is evaluated by using this
model. The results show that the risk level of the company's transformation is between
average and high, and the risk of marketing is the highest. Finally, according to the
results of the transformation risk assessment of MAX Company, the corresponding
control measures for each risk are proposed, in order to improve the transformation risk
II