学位论文原创性声明
本人所提交的学位论文《我国企业跨国并购风险预警体系构建—以海航科技并
购英迈国际为例》，是在导师的指导下，独立进行研究工作所取得的原创性成果。除
文中已经注明引用的内容外，本论文不包含任何其他个人或集体已经发表或撰写过的
研究成果。对本文的研究做出重要贡献的个人和集体，均已在文中标明。
本声明的法律后果由本人承担。
论文作者（签名）：
2022年9月13日
指导教师确认（签名）：
2022年9月13日
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论文作者（签名）：
2022年9月13日
指导教师（签名）：
2022年9月13日
摘要
随着中国“引进来”和“走出去”战略的深入推进，跨国并购的作用日益凸显。
近几年来，中国的跨国并购处于蓬勃发展时期，中国企业通过跨国并购方式扩大规模、
获取技术资产、实现快速成长的案例不胜枚举。由于交易对象、融资渠道的选择、支
付方式的选择以及企业整合经营过程中环境的改变，使得跨国并购的不确定性增加。
与此同时，金融工具在资本市场的发展壮大中也越来越丰富，各式各样的支付方式不
断在并购项目中上演，依靠高杠杆的跨国并购也随之产生，这样高负债的融资模式为
跨国并购带来了更多的风险。 2016年，我国跨国并购的数目和金额均达到历史最高水
平。近年来受新冠疫情影响，全球经济发展低迷，我国跨国并购呈现出了新的发展趋
势。在这样的背景下，我们对跨国并购风险进行评估和控制就显得非常必要。
本文选取海航科技并购英迈国际为例进行分析。首先以研究背景和意义为切入点，
以国内外研究内容为基础，确定本论文的思路和方法；其次介绍我国跨国并购的现状
和跨国并购风险的主要内容，分析了各风险之间的传导机理，为论文后续展开论述提
供理论支撑；然后利用模糊层次分析法，构建了我国企业跨国并购的风险预警体系，
并将预警体系应用到海航科技并购英迈国际的案例上进行回测，通过专家访谈结合国
内外研究内容进行归纳总结，确定海航科技并购英迈国际的风险指标，利用 AHP法获
取指标权重同时结合专家模糊综合评分计算得出模糊综合评价结果，并对结果进行分
析，发现存在的问题，同时总结回测效果；最后提出了相关建议，政府方面应专设跨
国并购信息系统，健全跨境并购监管和服务机制的建议，企业方面应树立正确的并购
动机、充分调查目标企业、构建合理的债务结构、密切关注投后管理，以降低风险发
生的可能性，提高并购的成功率。
关键词：跨国并购；并购风险；模糊层次分析法；预警体系
I
Abstract
The role of cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&A) has become increasingly
prominent as China's "inbound" and "outbound" strategies are being further promoted.
Chinese companies have been using cross-border M&A to expand their operations and
acquire technological assets to achieve rapid growth. However, the choice of the target, the
source of funds, the payment method and the changes in the integration and operation
environment all bring uncertainty to cross-border M&A. At the same time, the growing
sophistication and strength of the economic system and capital markets have led to a
diversification of financial instruments and the emergence of cross-border M&A approaches
that rely on high leverage. The number and value of cross-border M&A transactions in China
reached a peak in 2016 and have gradually stabilized in recent years, with many companies
adopting various payment methods for M&A and scrambling to enter the cross-border M&A
boom. Therefore, it becomes especially important for companies to study the risks of cross-
border leveraged M&A and to evaluate and control them.
In this paper, HNA Technology's M&A of Ingram Micro International is selected as an
example for analysis. Firstly, we take the background and significance of the study as the
starting point, and determine the ideas and methods of this thesis based on the contents of
domestic and foreign studies; secondly, we introduce the current situation of cross-border
M&A in China and the main contents of cross-border M&A risks, analyze the transmission
mechanismbetween eachrisk,and providetheoreticalsupport forthesubsequent
development of the thesis; then we use fuzzy hierarchy analysis to construct the risk early
warning system of cross-border M&A of Chinese enterprises and apply the early warning The
early warning system was applied to the case of HNA Technology's M&A of Ingram Micro
for backtesting, and the risk indicators of HNA Technology's M&A of Ingram Micro were
identified through expert interviews and summarized with domestic and foreign research, and
the AHP method was used to obtain the index weights and the fuzzy comprehensive
evaluation resultscombined withthe fuzzycomprehensive scoringofexperts. The
government should set up an information system for cross-border M&A and improve the
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