摘要
在我国经济体制改革和市场化进程中，房地产行业可以称得上是最具代表性
的产业之一。房地产行业自身是资金密集型行业，具有融资需求量大、投资周期
长、变现能力弱等特点，这些因素都会使得房地产企业的财务抗风险能力较弱。
房地产市场进入本轮周期的下行阶段已成为市场的共识，房地产行业自身的景气
程度、宏观环境的变化、企业财务战略的调整等共同作用，可能引发房地产企业
财务风险的产生。
本文在借鉴国内外有关财务风险控制理论研究成果和实践探索经验的基础
上，从偿债风险、营运风险、盈利风险和现金流量风险等四个层面分析了万科集
团财务风险的现状和成因，并以 2018年至 2020年万科集团的相关财务数据作为
研究样本，构建万科集团财务风险综合评价模型，并对万科集团的财务风险进行
了综合评价，进而有针对性地提出了万科集团财务风险的控制策略。主要结论有：
（1）2018年至 2020年万科集团的偿债风险较高；营运能力虽比较强，但是也
同样存在资金风险的隐患；盈利能力总体趋于下降，不太稳定；销售规模增长有
限、毛利率下降快以及业务转型对万科集团的成长能力有较大影响。与此同时，
万科集团对于现金流依然要保持严格管控，以保证万科集团日常营运和投资的资
金供应；（2）依据万科集团财务指标的分析结果，万科集团财务风险增大的原
因主要缘于四个方面：资产流动性逐年减弱、资本收益增速降低、资产负债结构
有所恶化以及宏观房地产政策的影响；（ 3）通过 Z-Score模型评价与比较分析
万科集团和行业内同类型绿地控股等 3家房地产企业的财务风险，万科集团的 Z
值在 4家企业里处于较高水平，说明万科集团的财务状况与绿地控股等其它 3
家房地产企业相比是相对稳定的，具有较强的行业竞争力；（4）万科集团财务
风险的控制，应着力于四个方面：通过确定合理负债水平、构建多渠道融资模式、
优化资产负债结构、完善负债经营监督机制以强化偿债风险控制；通过强化投资
风险防范、加强造价成本管理、严格项目预算管理以强化盈利风险控制；通过完
善内部管理体系、提高资金利用效率以强化营运风险控制；通过提升投资决策质
量、健全资金管理机制、优化应收账款管理等以强化现金流量风险控制。
关键词：万科集团；财务风险；现状与成因；风险评价；控制策略
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Abstract
In the process of my country's economic system reform and marketization, the
real estate industry can be regarded as one of the most representative industries. The
real estate industry itself is a capital-intensive industry, which has the characteristics
of large demand for financing, long investment cycle, and weak liquidity. These
factors will make the financial risk resistance of real estate companies weak. It has
become the consensus of the market that the real estate market has entered the
downward phase of the current cycle. The combined effect of the real estate industry's
own prosperity, changes in the macro environment, and adjustment of corporate
financial strategies may lead to financial risks for real estate companies.
Based on the theoretical research results and practical exploration experience of
financial risk control at home and abroad, this paper analyzes the current situation and
causes of Vanke Group's financial risks from four aspects: debt repayment risk,
operational risk, profit risk and cash flow risk. Taking the relevant financial data of
Vanke Group from 2018 to 2020 as a research sample, a comprehensive evaluation
model of Vanke Group's financial risk is constructed, and a comprehensive evaluation
of the financial risk of Vanke Group is carried out, and then the control of financial
risk of Vanke Group is put forward in a targeted manner. Strategy. The main
conclusions are as follows: (1) From 2018 to 2020, the debt repayment risk of Vanke
Group is relatively high; although the operating capacity is relatively strong, there is
also the hidden danger of capital risk; the overall profitability tends to decline and is
not stable; the sales scale increases Limited, rapid decline in gross profit margin and
business transformation have a greater impact on the growth capability of Vanke
Group. At the same time, Vanke Group still maintains strict control over cash flow to
ensure the supply of funds for Vanke Group's daily operations and investments; (2)
According to the analysis results of Vanke Group's financial indicators, the reason for
the increase in Vanke Group's financial risks is mainly due to Four aspects: asset
liquidity has been weakened year by year, the growth rate of capital gains has
decreased, the asset-liability structure has deteriorated, and the impact of macro real
estate policies; (3) Evaluation and comparative analysis of Vanke Group and similar
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types of Greenland Holdings in the industry through Z-Score model The Z-value of
Vanke Group is at a relatively high level among the 4 companies, indicating that the
financial situation of Vanke Group is relatively stable compared with the other 3 real
estate companies such as Greenland Holdings, with a strong Industry competitiveness;
(4) Vanke Group’s financial risk control should focus on four aspects: strengthening
debt repayment risk control by determining a reasonable debt level, building a
multi-channel financing model, optimizing the asset-liability structure, and improving
the liability management supervision mechanism; Strengthen profit risk control by
strengthening investment risk prevention, strengthening cost management, and strict
project budget management; strengthening operational risk control by improving
internal management system and improving capital utilization efficiency; improving
investment decision-making quality, improving capital management mechanism, and
optimizing application Accounts collection management, etc. to strengthen cash flow
risk control.
Key words: Vanke Group; financial risk; status quo; risk assessment of causes;
control strategy
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