2022
GLOBAL
END-OF-YEAR
FORECAST
AReportFromGroupM,WPP’sMediaInvestmentGroup
DECEMBER2022DECEMBER2022oTHISYEARNEXTYEARIGLOBALEND-OF-YEARFORECAST
03INTRODUCTION
06UNCERTAINTIMES
132023OUTLOOK
14MAINSTREAM
16MEDIATRENDS
21TOP10MARKETDATA
32GLOBALSUMMARYDATATABLE
33CONTACT
2DECEMBER2022oTHISYEARNEXTYEARIGLOBALEND-OF-YEARFORECASTIINTRODUCTION
INTRODUCTION
ADVERTISING
HASPERHAPS
NEVERBEENMORE
TOP-OF-MIND
ORMOREIN
THEPUBLICEYE
THANITHAS
BEENINTHELAST
SIXMONTHS.
Notonlyduetotherecentwall-to-wallnewscoverageofthecriticalroleitplaysin
underpinningthebusinessofsocialmedia,butalsobecauseinaworldbesetby
economicuncertainty,advertisinghasbeenthrustintothespotlightasasortof
bellwetherforBigTechandretailcommerce.Helduptothatlight,themessageisnot
altogethernegative.Wenowbelievethatglobaladvertisinggrowthfor2022willbe
6.5%,excludingU.S.politicaladvertising(whatwecall“underlyinggrowth”).Thisis
lowerthanourJuneforecastwhenweestimated8.4%growth;however,thisis
primarilytheeffectofloweredChinaexpectations.Ex-China,growthisforecastat8.1%
for2022.Atthemidpointof2022itwasdifficulttogaugewhethertheearly
signsofeconomicslowdownwouldresultinmoremildorsevereimpactsto
consumerspending,globalsupplychainsand,ultimately,advertisingrevenue.
Clearly,inflationhasprovedmoreintractable,ashasthewarinUkraine.And
yet,onlyhalfofthe62marketswetrackdowngradedtheirgrowthforecastfor2022.
One-third,21markets,upgradedtheirexpectations,and10marketsmadenochange
fromtheJuneforecasts.It’salsoimportanttonotethat,whencomparinglast
December’sforecasttothisDecember’s,theU.S.dollarhasappreciatedconsiderably
throughout2022,whichincrementallyskewsgrowthdownwardduetothehigher
weightoftheU.S.advertisingmarketandbringsdowntheoverallsizeoftheglobal
industry,atleastwhendenominatedinU.S.dollars.3DECEMBER2022oTHISYEARNEXTYEARIGLOBALEND-OF-YEARFORECASTIINTRODUCTION
Notably,onlytwoofthe62marketswetrackareforecastingnegative
growthinnominalterms(thatis,withoutadjustingforinflation)in
2022.Amajorityofmarkets,35,areforecastinggrowth,albeitbelow
theaverageglobalrateofinflationthisyear,whichis8.8%perthe
InternationalMonetaryFund(IMF)October2022WorldEconomic
Outlook.Theother25marketsareprojectinggrowthaboveglobal
inflation,andwhilesomestillfallbelowinflationlevelsintheirown
country(e.g.,ArgentinaandTurkey),16marketsareoutpacinglevels
ofinflationathome,includingAustralia,Brazil,India,Kenya,Malaysia,
Mexico,SouthAfricaandSouthKorea.
Lookingatnextyear,whentheIMFexpectsglobalinflationtodrop
to6.5%,weseeasimilartrendwith26marketspredictingadvertising
growthaboveaverageglobalinflation,32marketsforecastingnominal
growthbelowtherateofinflation,andjustfourmarketspredicting
nominaldecline(Austria,Italy,NewZealandandSpain).Our
globalforecastcallsforgrowthof5.9%in2023.
4DECEMBER2022oTHISYEARNEXTYEARIGLOBALEND-OF-YEARFORECAST
INTRODUCTIONTHESTATEOFRETAILMARKETGROWTHGEOGRAPHICTRENDS
THEREARESEVERAL
DRIVERSPOINTING
TOCAUTIOUSOPTIMISM:
LARGEDECLINESAPPEARLIMITEDTOUNEMPLOYMENTREMAINSLOWAND
SELECTCHANNELSINSELECTMARKETS.NEWBUSINESSCREATIONREMAINSA
Forexample,Germany,FranceandtheU.K.SOURCEOFGROWTH.
alldowngraded2022TVgrowthfrompositivePeople,broadly,areabletofindjobs,andnew
1inourJuneforecasttonegativeinourend-of-year3
businesscreation,whilefallinginthemost
forecast.Thesemarketsareexpectedtofacerecentperiodinsomemarkets,hasbeenrobust.
steepenergycostincreasesandshortagesinThesenewbusinessesarelikelyadvertising
lightofthewarinUkraine.China’sout-of-homeathigherlevelsthanthebusinessestheyhave
(OOH)figurefor2022issettodeclinemorethanreplacedintheeconomy.
34.3%afterthecountry’szero-COVIDpolicy
hasledtonumerousrestrictivelockdowns
acrossthecountry.
LARGEADVERTISERSARECAUTIOUSBUTDIGITAL,BOTHPURE-PLAYDIGITAL
RECORDINGREVENUEGAINS.PLATFORMSANDDIGITALEXTENSIONS
Forthemostpart,wehaveheardexecutivesatOFTRADITIONALMEDIA,CONTINUES
2someofthelargestglobaladvertisersvoiceTOGROW.
concernaboutinflationandcostoflivingcrises,4
Anddespiterecentheadlineswarningofa
butrevenuehasremainedrelativelyresilientasBigTechbustanddigitaladvertisingslump,
companiespassonaddedcoststoconsumersandweexpectbothformsofdigitaladvertising
salescontinuetoholdup.togrowdoubledigitsin2022,ex-China.
5
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