股
票
研
[Table_Title]RichardCao曹柱
CompanyReport:DRCB(09889HK)
究(86755)23976870
EquityResearch
公司报告：东莞农商银行(09889HK)zhu.cao@gtjas.hk
30December2022
Benefit[Table_Summaryfrom]theDevelopmentofDongguanand
Guangdong-HongKong-MacaoGreaterBayArea,"Buy"
受益于东莞及粤港澳大湾区的发展，“买入”
公
Investmentsuggestions:WeexpecttheCompany’sshareholders’netprofit
司Rating:[Table_Rank]
forFY22/FY23/FY24togrowYoYby14.9%/16.5%/18.9%,respectively.Buy
Initial
报WeexpecttheCompany’sEPSforFY22/FY23/FY24tobeRMB0.933/
告RMB1.086/RMB1.291,andBVPSforFY22/FY23/FY24tobeRMB7.477/
评级：买入(首次覆盖)
CompanyReportRMB8.175/RMB9.005,respectively.WeinitiatewithaTPofHKD9.58forthe
Company,equivalentto9.4xFY22PER,8.0xFY23PER,6.8xFY24PER,
1.2xFY22PBR,1.1xFY23PBRand1.0xFY24PBR.Meanwhile,weinitiate6[Table_Price]-18mTP目标价:HK$9.58
theCompanywith"Buy"rating.Revisedfrom原目标价:
TheCompanyisexpectedtocontinuetobenefitfromthedevelopmentShareprice股价：HK$7.200
告
ofDongguanandGuangdong-HongKong-MacaoGreaterBayArea,and
证earningsgrowthoutlookisgoodinthenearfuture.Theeconomic
报Stockperformance
developmentoutlookforDongguanandGuangdong-HongKong-Macao
券股价表现
究GreaterBayAreainwhichtheCompany’sbusinessescoverisbright.We
研expecttheCompany’sassetqualitytoimproveandearningsgrowthtoremain[Table_QuotePic]
15.0
%ofreturn
研
goodinthenearfuture.TheCompany’sROE,assetquality,andNPL10.0
究
coveragelevelalloutperformitsmainpeers.TheCompanyhasoutstanding5.0
券0.0
报advantagesincostofdepositspartiallyasaresultofhighpercentageofthe
(5.0)
告证demanddepositsintotaldepositsandsignificantcreditcostadvantage(10.0)
(15.0)
EquityResearchReport
comparedwithitsmainpeers.
(20.0)
(25.0)
Catalysts:TheCompany’sNIMisexpectedtostabilizeandimprovein2023
(30.0)
and2024;creditcostisexpectedtodeclinein2023and2024.(35.0)
[Tab(40.0)
Riskfactors:Greaterregionalconcentrationrisk;economicconditionsaren’tDec-21Mar-22Jun-22Sep-22Dec-22
le_Iinlinewithourexpectations;exposuretorisksfromtherealestateindustryHSIDRCB
nfo1maybebeyondexpectation.
投资建议：我们预计2022/2023/2024年公司的归母净利润分别同比增长14.9%、16.5%、
][Table_PriceChange]
18.9%。我们预计2022/2023/2024年公司的每股盈利分别为0.933元人民币、1.086元人ChangeinSharePrice1M3M1Y
银
民币和1.291元人民币，2022/2023/2024年每股净资产分别为7.477元人民币、8.175元股价变动1个月3个月1年
行人民币和9.005元人民币。我们首次给予公司9.58港元的目标价，对应9.4倍2022年市Abs.%0.71.7(4.6)
绝对变动%
行盈率、8.0倍2023年市盈率和6.8倍2024年市盈率，1.2倍2022年市净率、1.1倍2023
Rel.%toHSIndex(5.7)(13.2)9.8
业年市净率和1.0倍2024年市净率。同时，我们首次给予公司“买入”投资评级。相对恒指变动%
Avg.shareprice（HK$）
7.07.17.3
BankingSector公司预计将继续受益于东莞及粤港澳大湾区的发展，未来一段时间盈利增长前景较好。公平均股价（港元）
Source:Bloomberg,GuotaiJunanInternational.
司业务覆盖的东莞及粤港澳大湾区经济发展前景广阔。我们预计未来一段时间公司的资产
质量将改善、盈利增速仍较好。公司的ROE、资产质量、不良贷款拨备覆盖水平均优于
其主要同业。相比其主要同业，部分由于活期存款占总存款的比重较高，使得公司的存款
成本优势明显，且公司信用成本优势明显。
催化剂：2023及2024年公司净息差预计将企稳改善；2023及2024年信用成本预计将下
滑。
[Tab
风险因素：区域集中度风险较大；经济状况与我们预期不一致；房地产风险暴露或超预期。
le_I
Y[Table_earEndTurnoverNetProfitEPSEPSPERBPSPBRDPSYieldROE
nfo2Profit]
年结收入股东净利每股净利每股净利变动市盈率每股净资产市净率每股股息股息率净资产收益率
12/31(RMBm)(RMBm)(RMB)(△%)(x)(RMB)(x)(RMB)(%)(%)
]
东2020A12,0474,8570.846(1.6)7.26.2971.00.2604.313.9
莞2021A12,9965,5900.9279.66.36.8780.90.2904.913.4
农2022F14,6246,4250.9330.67.07.4770.90.3335.113.0
商2023F16,5007,4831.08616.56.08.1750.80.3885.913.9
银2024F18,8378,8951.29118.95.19.0050.70.4627.015.0
Sharesinissue(m)总股数(m)6,888.5Majorshareholder大股东GuangdongCanvestInvestment4.34%
行(09889DRCBHK)[Table_BaseData]
Marketcap.(HK$m)市值(HK$m)49,597.5Freefloat(%)自由流通比率(%)95.7
3monthaveragevol.3个月平均成交股数(‘000)425.7FY22FCoreTier-1CARFY22年核心一级资本充足率13.3%
52Weekshigh/low(HK$)52周高/低(HK$)8.000/6.680FY22FNPLratioFY22年不良贷款率(%)0.8
Source:theCompany,GuotaiJunanInternational.
SeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of27
[Table_PageHeader]DRCB(09889HK)
]1raMthgiR_elbaT[
TABLEOFCONTENTS
Withoutstandinggeographicaladvantage,DRCBbenefitsfromthedevelopmentofDongguanand
Guangdong-HongKong-MacaoGreaterBayArea...........3
DRCBtakesDongguanascenter,withGuangdong-HongKong-MacaoGreaterBayAreaasthecore,and
EastGuangdongandWestGuangdongastwocomplements..........3
30December2022
Dongguan’sgeographicaladvantageisoutstandingandmanufacturingindustryisdeveloped........6
Loansgrewatafastpace,togetherwiththedevelopmentofindustrializationofDongguanandthe
relativelyrapidlocaleconomicgrowth................8
NIMwasstilllowmainlyduetotheloweryieldofinterest-earningassets,despitethatcostofdeposits
waslow........................11
Incomefromwealthmanagementagencyservicesremainedthebiggestcontributorforfeeand
commissionincome.................14
Lowcreditcost..................15
Goodassetquality,andHighNPLcoveragelevel.................15
]2raMthgiR_elbaT[
Goodcapitalbase....................19
DuPontanalysis:highROEmainlyasaresultofthelowcreditcost.............19
EarningsForecast:earningsgrowthisexpectedtoimprove,benefitingfromthedevelopmentof
DongguanandGuangdong-HongKong-MacaoGreaterBayArea...........20
Valuation......................21
Income-basedvaluation..................21
Market-basedvaluation...................22
Finalvaluation...................22
Riskfactors........................22
Appendix.....................24
(09889HK)
东莞农商银行
DRCB
Report
Company
SeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage2of27[Table_PageHeader]DRCB(09889HK)
Withoutstandinggeographicaladvantage,DRCBbenefitsfromthedevelopmentof
DongguanandGuangdong-HongKong-MacaoGreaterBayArea]1raMthgiR_elbaT[
DRCBtakesDongguanascenter,withGuangdong-HongKong-MacaoGreaterBayAreaasthecore,
andEastGuangdongandWestGuangdongastwocomplements
DongguanRuralCommercialBank("DRCB"orthe"Company")isthefirstlistedfinancialinstitutioninDongguan.The
Companyisaheadquarter-levellocaljoint-stockcommercialbank,andtheleadingcommercialbankinDongguan.The
30December2022
Company’spredecessorisDongguanRuralCreditCooperativeAssociationestablishedin1952.TheCompanycompletedthe
reformasunifiedlegalpersonin2005,completedthereformasjoint-stockcompanyin2009,andsuccessfullylistedonthe
HongKongStockExchangeinSeptember2021(stockcode:09889HK).TheCompanyisthe13thlistedruralcommercialbank
inChina,thefourthruralcommercialbanklistedontheHongKongStockExchange,andthefirstlistedfinancialinstitutionin
Dongguan.InFebruary2022,thepowertooverseeDongguanRuralCommercialBankwastransferredfromGuangdong
ProvinceRuralCreditCooperativesAssociation(广东省农村信用社联合社)toDongguanMunicipalGovernmentwiththe
approvalofGuangdongProvincialGovernment.
TheCompanytakesDongguanascenter,withGuangdong-HongKong-MacaoGreaterBayAreaasthecore,andEast
GuangdongandWestGuangdongastwocomplements.TheCompanyhasthelargest]2rnumberaMthofgoutletsiR_eamonglbaT[
commercialbanksinDongguan.Asattheendof1H22,505entities(includingtheheadquarterand504outlets)werelocatedin
Dongguanandcoveredall32administrativedistricts.SuchbroadnetworkcoveragemakestheCompanydeepenpenetration
intothelocalmarket.Asoftheendof1H22,theCompanyalsohadfoursub-branchesoutsideDongguan,locatedin
Guangzhou,Zhuhai,HuizhouandQingyuaninGuangdongProvince,respectively.Inaddition,theCompanyhad
jointly-establishedfourcountybanks,whichwerelocatedinDalangTownofDongguan,ZhongkaiNationalHi-techIndustrial
DevelopmentZ