航运公司船舶航经石碑山海域的风险管理研究
中文摘要
近年来，安全发展防控风险理念在党和国家战略层面不断得到重视发展。牢
固树立“发展决不能以牺牲安全为代价”红线意识，提高航运企业安全管理能力，
应对船舶航行风险。从航运公司安全管理角度看，针对某些事故多发水域、危险
水域等进行船舶航行风险识别和风险评价极为必要。石碑山海域国际国内航线交
汇，进出渔港航路与商船航路交叉，又是众多南北航航行船舶的习惯转向点，航
经惠来石碑山海域的船舶数量多、密度大，航行环境复杂。石碑山海域的台湾海
峡风口效应明显，常年受季风、洋流影响严重，被列为广东十大危险水域之一。
该海域海上交通险情事故频发，但针对该海域特点的研究非常少，关于该海域船
舶交通安全风险研究可查询参考的文献更是寥寥无几。
本文按照风险管理流程，主要通过风险识别－风险评价－风险控制措施与决
策建议等方面进行研究。首先，以“人－船－环境－管理”为基础，通过查阅文
献、专家访谈、海上交通事故案例归纳分析等方式，采用问卷调查和事故树分析
法等方法，开展石碑山船舶海上交通风险识别，确定主要风险影响因素，并建立
以石碑山船舶海上交通安全指标评价体系。其次，借助层次分析－模糊综合评价，
建立石碑山海海域船舶海上交通安全评价模型，进行船舶航经石碑山海域的风险
评价。最后，根据评价结果，结合实际，有针对性地提出合理安全建议。
相关研究成果如下：
（1）对石碑山海域通航环境分析，以及该海域海上交通安全事故特征研究，
初步描述目前石碑山海域现状和事故特征。并进行风险识别和选定该海域船舶交
通安全主要影响因素，构建该海域船舶交通安全评价指标体系。
（2）建立基于层次分析—模糊综合评价的石碑山海域船舶交通安全风险评
价模型，对该海域船舶交通安全进行评价，得出安全水平等级。
（3）根据评价结果，结合实际提出航经石碑山海域船舶交通安全建议。
通过研究，本文分析了船舶航经石碑山海域安全风险状况，以及影响石碑山
海域船舶交通安全主要风险因素。该研究可能会在石碑山海上交通安全风险管理
研究较少的情况，为航运企业加强船舶在该海域安全营运、预防船舶海上交通事
故提供帮助，也为当地海事管理部门加强海上交通安全管理提供参考。
关键词：航运公司船舶，航行安全，石碑山海域，风险管理
I

Research on Risk Management of Shipping
Company Ships Passing through the Sea Area of
Shibeishan
Abstract
In recent years, the concept of safe development, prevention and control of risks
has been continuously emphasized and developed at the party and national strategic
level. Adhere to the red line awareness of "development must not be at the expense of
safety", implement the main safety responsibility of shipping companies, improve
prevention and control capabilities, and respond to the risks of safe navigation of
ships. From the perspective of the safety management of shipping companies, target
certain accident-prone waters and dangerous waters It is extremely necessary to carry
out the risk identification and risk assessment of the safe navigation of ships.The
Huilai Shibeishan water area has large ship flow, complicated ship routes, the
intersection of international and domestic routes, and the intersection of fishing ports
and merchant shipping routes. It is also a habitual turning point for many north-south
sailing ships, and the navigation environment is complicated. The Taiwan Strait tuyere
in this sea area has obvious benefits. It is severely affected by monsoons and ocean
currents throughout the year, and is listed as one of the ten most dangerous waters in
Guangdong. There are frequent maritime traffic accidents in this sea area, but there
are very few studies on the characteristics of this sea area, and there are very few
references to the research on the safety of ship traffic safety in this sea area.
In this paper, the research is carried out through the systematic method thinking
of risk identification-risk evaluation-risk control measures and decision-making
suggestions. First, on the basis of "people-ship-environment-management", through
methods such as literature review, expert interviews, and marine traffic accident case
analysis, questionnaire surveys and accident tree analysis methods are used to identify
ship marine traffic risks in Shibeishan. , To determine important risk factors, and
establish an evaluation system for ship marine traffic safety indicators based on
Shibeishan. Secondly, with the help of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)-fuzzy
comprehensive evaluation, the ship's maritime traffic safety evaluation model in the
Shibeishan sea area is established, and the risk assessment of the ship's voyage in the
Shibeishan sea area is carried out. Finally, according to the evaluation results,
II

reasonable safety recommendations are put forward in combination with the actual
situation.
The related research results are as follows:
（1）Based on the analysis of the navigation environment in the Shibeishan sea
area and the study on the characteristics of marine traffic accidents in this sea area, a
preliminary description of the current status and accident characteristics of the
Shibeishan sea area. In addition, risk identification and selection of main factors
affecting ship traffic safety in this sea area are carried out to construct an evaluation
index system for ship traffic safety in this sea area.
（2）Establish a risk assessment model for ship traffic safety in Shibeishan waters
based on analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, evaluate the
traffic safety of ships in this waters, and get the safety level.
（ 3） Based on the evaluation results, combined with the actual situation,
suggestions on the safety of ship traffic in the sea area of Shibei Mountain are put
forward.
Through research, this paper analyzes the safety risk status of ships passing
through the sea area of Shibei Mountain in Guangdong, as well as the main risk
factors that affect ship traffic safety in the sea area of Shibei Mountain. This research
may be used in cases where there is less research on marine traffic safety risk
management in Shibeishan, Guangdong, and it will help shipping companies to
strengthen the safe operation of ships in this sea area and prevent marine traffic
accidents, as well as provide assistance to local maritime administrations to strengthen
water traffic safety management reference.
Key words: Keywords: shipping company ships, navigation
safety, Shibeishan waters, risk management
III
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