摘要
我国的“十四五”规划中明确提出：坚持房住不炒、因城施策、租购并举，
促进房地产市场平稳发展。但是自从 1998年住房市场化改革以来，我国商品房
销售均价上涨十分迅速。2000-2019年我国商品房销售均价由 2112元/m
2
上涨至
9310元/m
2
，年均增长 24.49%。已有研究表明，过高的房价是造成了我国储蓄率
高不下、降低新生儿的出生性别比、阻碍了我国企业创新活动的重要因素。可是，
自 2005年开始我国就不断的出台房地产市场调控政策，以便缓解由房价过快上
涨而带来的民生问题，但是结果却不尽人意。因此，探究房价过快上涨的最外生
影响因素，对于促进我国房地产市场的平稳健康发展具有十分重要意义。
为了实现上述研究目的，本文首先从理论上探讨了土地供给偏移、非理性房
地产投资、房价三者之间的关系，并提出了三个待验证的假说：一是土地供给偏
移造成的土地供给弹性的变化与城市房价负相关；二是土地供给偏移会使得中西
部的非理性房地产投资增加；三是土地供给偏移会通过非理性房地产投资的增加
促进中西部地区房价上涨。在此基础上，本文使用 2001-2017年 279个地级及以
上城市的相关数据，在借鉴韩立彬和陆铭（2018）、张莉（2017）模型的基础之
上，运用双固定效应面板模型，测度土地供给偏移政策实施后，土地供给占比的
变化对各地区、各城市房价造成的影响。同时以非理性房地产投资为调节变量，
对中西部地区土地供给占比增加反而促进房价上涨的影响机制进行探析。论文的
主要研究结论如下：（1）整体而言土地供给占比与房价之间呈现显著的负相关
关系。（2）对于东部地区而言，土地供给偏移政策实施之后，土地供给占比的
减少是其房价上涨的重要因素即表现为土地供给与需求的错配。（3）中西部地
区土地供给占比与房价之间呈现正相关关系即土地供给占比增多会促进房价上
涨的重要原因是由于非理性房地产投资的增加。
基于上述研究结论，本文提出如下政策建议：第一，推进房地产调控政策侧
重点由需求侧向供给侧转变；第二，改变东部与中西部地区土地供给政策的差异；
第三，对土地要素实行市场化配置打破地方政府的垄断性供给。
关键词：非理性房地产投资；土地供给偏移；房价上涨
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Abstract
China 's " 14th Five-Year Plan " clearly stated : adhere to housing does not fry,
urban policy, rent and purchase simultaneously, promote the steady development of
the real estate market. From 2000 to 2019, the average price of commercial housing
sales in China has experienced a rapid rise from 2112 yuan / to 9310 yuan /, with an
average annual growth of 24.49 %. Studies have shown that high housing prices are
an important factor that causes the high savings rate in China, reduces the birth sex
ratio of newborns and hinders the innovation activities of Chinese enterprises.
However, since 2005, China has continuously introduced real estate market regulation
policies in order to alleviate the livelihood problems caused by the excessive rise of
housing prices, but the results are unsatisfactory. Therefore, it is of great significance
to explore the most exogenous factors affecting the rapid rise of housing prices for the
smooth and healthy development of the real estate market.
In order to achieve the above research purposes, this paper first theoretically
discusses the relationship among land supply deviation, irrational real estate
investment and housing price, and puts forward three hypotheses to be verified : first,
the increase in land supply will lead to a decline in housing price ; second, land
supply deviation will increase irrational real estate investment in the Midwest ; third,
land supply deviation will promote housing prices in the central and western regions
by increasing irrational real estate investment. On this basis, based on the relevant
data of 279 prefecture-level and above cities from 2001 to 2017, and on the basis of
Han Libin and Lu Ming (2018), Zhang Li (2017) models, this paper uses the double
fixed effect panel model to measure the impact of changes in the proportion of land
supply on housing prices in various regions and cities after the implementation of the
land supply deviation policy. At the same time, taking the irrational real estate
investment as the adjustment variable, this paper analyzes the influence mechanism of
the increase of land supply in the central and western regions on the rise of housing
prices. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows. (1) Overall, there is a
significant negative correlation between the proportion of land supply and housing
prices. (2) For the eastern region, after the implementation of the land supply offset
policy, the decrease in the proportion of land supply is an important factor in the rise
of housing prices, that is, the mismatch between land supply and demand. (3) There is
a positive correlation between the proportion of land supply and housing prices in the
central and western regions, that is, the increase in the proportion of land supply will
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promote the rise of housing prices is due to the increase in irrational real estate
investment.
Based on the above research conclusions, this paper puts forward the following
policy suggestions : Firstly, the focus of the policy of retreating into real estate
regulation is changed from the demand side to the supply side. Second, change the
land supply policy differences between the eastern and central and western regions ;
third, the implementation of market allocation of land elements to break the monopoly
of local government supply.
Key words :Irrational real estate investment ; Land supply deviation ; Rising
house prices
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