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MBA论文_锁定期内持股比例对IPO首日抑价和短期回报影响基于创业板实证分析

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文本描述
摘要
自 2006年股权分置开启全流通后,锁定期成为 IPO上市的制度性安排,上
市公司的原股东成为锁定对象,通过限售来平衡市场各参与主体的利益,首发限
售股原股东(发起人股东)作为公司典型的内部人,在实施锁定期制度后,原股
东不能从 IPO上市后的高抑价中获益,这将使他们缺乏参与 IPO炒作的动机,
还可以给投资者传递公司质量信息,缓解证券市场的投机氛围,从而在一定程度
上影响企业 IPO抑价。
本文选取创业板上市公司作为研究样本,首先,运用多元回归的方式,对我
国新股 IPO抑价率作了重新测度及具体影响因素的探究,研究了首发限售股原股
东锁定期内持股比例与 IPO首日抑价、短期回报的关系;其次,从投资者情绪的
视角考察了首发限售股原股东锁定期内持股比例对 IPO首日抑价与短期回报的
影响路径;验证了研发投入强度、承销商声誉、会计信息质量、风险投资参与是
否在首发限售股原股东锁定期内持股比例对 IPO首日抑价与短期回报的影响中
发挥了调节作用;最后,从异质性角度分析了首发限售股原股东锁定期内持股比
例对 IPO首日抑价与短期回报的影响是否存在差异。
在借鉴国内外研究成果的基础上,进一步通过实证分析,本文得出如下研究
结论:(1)基准回归表明:锁定期 1年、3年的持股比例对 IPO首日抑价、IPO10
日回报、IPO30日回报分别呈显著的正向影响和负向影响。(2)中介效应表明:
没有证据支持投资者情绪是锁定期 1年、3年的持股比例影响 IPO首日抑价和短
期回报的中介因子。(3)调节效应表明:承销商声誉越大,锁定期 1年持股比
例对 IPO10、30日回报的正向影响越大,而 3年持股比例对 IPO10、30日回报
的抑制效应越明显;风险投资的参与强化了锁定期 1年、3年持股比例与 IPO首
日抑价与短期回报的关系。(4)异质性回归表明:锁定期 1年、3年的持股比
例对 IPO首日、10日回报的影响与行业性质、股权性质相关。本文研究结论解
释了首发原股东不同锁定期的持股比例对 IPO首日抑价和短期回报的影响,为我
国创业板新股的发行体制改革,对我国目前正在推进的注册制改革、广大中小投
资者的保护以及证券市场的健康发展具有重要意义。
关键词:IPO首日抑价与短期回报;首发限售股原股东;锁定期内持股比例
I

Abstract
Since the start of full circulation of the equity split in 2006, the lock-up period
has become an institutional arrangement for IPO listings. The original shareholders of
listed companies have become the target of lock-in. The interests of the market
participants are balanced through sales restrictions. The original shareholders of the
first restricted shares (initiated As a typical insider of a company, after the
implementation of the lock-up period system, the original shareholders cannot benefit
from the high underpricing after the IPO, which will make them lack the motivation to
participate in the IPO speculation, and can also convey the company to investors
Quality information eases the speculative atmosphere in the securities market, thereby
affecting corporate IPO underpricing to a certain extent.
This article selects GEM listed companies as the research sample. First, using
multiple regression methods, the underpricing rate of IPOs in my country is
re-measured and the specific influencing factors are explored, and the proportion of
shares held by the original shareholders of the first restricted shares during the lock-up
period is studied. The relationship with the first-day underpricing and short-term
return of the IPO; secondly, from the perspective of investor sentiment, the influence
path of the original shareholder’s shareholding ratio during the lock-up period on the
first-day underpricing and short-term return of the IPO is verified from the
perspective of investor sentiment; Investment intensity, reputation of underwriters,
quality of accounting information, and whether or not venture capital participates in
the initial shareholding ratio of the original shareholders of restricted shares during
the lock-up period played a moderating role in the impact of the first day of IPO
underpricing and short-term returns; finally, from heterogeneity From a sexual
perspective, it analyzes whether there is a difference in the impact of the original
shareholder’s shareholding ratio during the lock-up period on the first day of IPO
underpricing and short-term returns.
Based on the domestic and foreign research results and further empirical analysis,
this paper draws the following research conclusions: (1) Benchmark regression shows
that: the lock-up period of 1 year, 3 years of the shareholding ratio to the first day of
IPO underpricing, IPO 10-day return , IPO 30-day returns showed significant positive
and negative effects respectively. (2) The intermediary effect shows that: there is no
evidence to support investor sentiment as an intermediary factor that affects the
II

first-day underpricing and short-term return of the IPO with the lock-up period of 1
and 3 years. (3) The moderating effect shows that the greater the underwriter’s
reputation, the greater the positive impact of the 1-year shareholding ratio of the
lock-up period on the return of the IPO on the 10th and 30th day, and the more
obvious the restraining effect of the 3-year shareholding ratio on the return of the IPO
on the 10th and 30th day ; The participation of venture capital has strengthened the
relationship between the lock-up period of 1 year and 3 years of the shareholding ratio
and the first day of IPO underpricing and short-term returns. (4) The regression of
heterogeneity shows that the impact of the lock-up period of 1 year and 3 years on the
return on the first day and 10 days of the IPO is related to the nature of the industry
and the nature of equity. The research conclusions of this article explain the influence
of the original shareholder’s shareholding ratios of different lock-up periods on the
first day of IPO underpricing and short-term returns. It is a reform of the issuance
system of new stocks on my country’s Growth Enterprise Market, as well as the
reform of the registration system and the majority of small and medium-sized
investments currently being promoted in my country. The protection of investors and
the healthy development of the stock market are of great significance.
Key words: underpricing and short-term returns on the first day of IPO; original
shareholders of the first restricted shares; shareholding ratio during the lock-up period
III
。。。以下略