数字普惠金融影响居民消费升级的效应与路径研究
摘要
“双循环”发展格局下居民消费逐渐成为了推动我国经济增长的主要支柱之
一，但是，我国前居民消费率仍然较低，消费没有完全发挥出促进经济增长的积
极作用。数字普惠金融作为互联网信息技术与传统金融的新型产物，能够以其独
特的便利性和可得性为居民提供更加适当可得的金融产品和服务。因此，研究数
字普惠金融的发展对我国居民消费升级的关系，探讨数字普惠金融促进居民消费
升级的有关路径，从而建立起促进消费升级的有效和长久机制，对于促进我国经
济长期稳定发展和满足人民美好生活需要具有重要的理论意义和现实意义。
首先，本文梳理在国内外已有研究成果的基础上，通过理论和实证两个方面
对数字普惠金融影响居民消费升级的效应和路径进行了分析。对数字普惠金融和
居民消费升级相关文献整理的基础上，基于有关消费的收入决定理论、流动性约
束理论和预防性储蓄理论等经典理论，对数字普惠金融具体是如何影响居民消费
升级进行了路径和机制分析。然后，选用了 2011-2019年的全国 31个省、市、
自治区的年度面板数据，以居民消费水平和居民消费结构为被解释变量，数字普
惠金融发展指数作为核心解释变量，经济发展水平、城镇化水平、老年抚养比、
传统金融发展水平和交通基础设施水平作为控制变量，构建线性面板模型，实证
分析数字普惠金融对居民消费升级的相关影响，并进一步采用中介效应模型和门
限回归分析了数字普惠金融影响居民消费升级的具体路径。
本文得出了以下结论：数字普惠金融显著促进了居民消费升级，且显著促进
西部地区的消费水平提升和东西部地区的消费结构优化；数字普惠金融能够显著
促进城镇和农村居民的消费升级，但是存在城乡差异；数字普惠金融可以通过储
蓄效应和支付效应分别促进消费水平提升和消费结构改善；数字普惠金融对消费
结构改善的影响中存在双重门限，且最优区间是中等收入水平。
最后，为了更好地发挥数字普惠金融促进居民消费升级的作用，本文基于实
证研究得出的结论，提出了加快全国数字普惠金融基础设施建设、因地制宜发展
数字普惠金融、建立城乡互惠数字普惠金融体系、稳步提升居民收入水平、加强
居民数字普惠金融知识教育和加快建设更先进、完备的支付体系等建议来促进居
民消费。
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数字普惠金融影响居民消费升级的效应与路径研究
关键词：数字普惠金融；消费升级；中介效应；门限模型
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数字普惠金融影响居民消费升级的效应与路径研究
Abstract
Under the "double cycle" development pattern, resident consumption has
gradually become one of the main pillars to promote China's economic growth.
However, the former resident consumption rate in China is still low, and consumption
has not fully played a positive role in promoting economic growth. Digital inclusive
finance, as a new product of Internet information technology and traditional finance,
can provide residents with more appropriate financial products and services with its
unique convenience and availability. Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical
significance to study the relationship between the development of digital inclusive
finance and the upgrading of consumer consumption in China and discuss the relevant
paths of digital inclusive finance to promote the upgrading of consumer consumption,
so as to establish an effective and long-term mechanism to promote the upgrading of
consumption, which is of great theoretical and practical significance to promote the
long-term stable development of Chinese economy and meet the needs of people for a
better life.
Firstly, based on the existing research results at home and abroad, this paper
analyzes the effects and paths of digital inclusive finance on residents' consumption
upgrading through theoretical and empirical analysis. Based on the literature review of
digital inclusive finance and residents' consumption upgrading, this paper analyzes the
path and mechanism of how digital inclusive finance affects residents' consumption
upgrading based on the classical theories of income determination theory, liquidity
constraint theory and precautionary savings theory. Then, the annual panel data of 31
provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions from 2011 to 2019 are selected.
Consumer consumption level and consumer consumption structure are taken as
explained variables, digital inclusive financial development index is taken as core
explanatory variable, and economic development level, urbanization level, old-age
dependency ratio, traditional financial development level and transportation
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