数字普惠金融对居民消费的影响研究
摘要
近些年，消费为我国经济发展不断提供动能，对经济增长的贡献有目共见。
受疫情以及国内外经济形势变化的影响，我国经济发展陷入困境。在这种背景下，
总书记提出要加快构建“双循环”的新发展战略格局,这为我国经济的可持续发
展指明了方向。而促进消费不仅能应对疫情带来的消极影响，还能促进我国经济
加快转型发展，这对提高居民生活水平，增加居民生活幸福感有非常重要的现实
意义。同时，数字普惠金融能满足经济社会发展的需要，使更多群众的金融服务
需求得到满足，所以它一经诞生就在社会上发展迅速。总体看来，数字普惠金融
能增加居民消费需求。特别是在新发展阶段，数字普惠金融是更加便利的金融服
务，它能借助大数据的便利性对大量复杂数据进行处理与分析，精准把握市场中
消费者的需求，敏锐的抓住市场消费新方向，这对促进居民消费显得尤为重要。
所以，研究数字普惠金融与居民消费之间的影响关系，对促进国内外经济平稳增
长以及畅通经济循环具有重要意义。
在数字普惠金融影响居民消费的研究中，重点内容如下：首先，介绍数字普
惠金融和居民消费的概念，介绍两者的理论基础；其次，梳理数字普惠金融影响
居民消费的路径；然后，使用图文结合的方式，对数字普惠金融和居民消费发展
现状进行直观分析；最后，运用 31个省市区 2011到 2019年的面板数据，采用
基准模型、中介效应模型以及门槛模型等进行实证检验。实证结果表明：（1）
从全国角度看，数字普惠金融能显著影响居民消费水平和结构，其影响通过收入
作为中介效应进行传导，所以用收入作为门槛值进行实证检验后，发现当收入越
过门槛值后，数字普惠金融对居民消费的正向影响变弱；（2）从地区异质性看，
数字普惠金融对不同地区的居民消费存在影响差异，其对农村和经济不发达地区
居民消费水平的正向影响效果都优于消费结构，且对东部和中部地区居民消费水
平和结构的促进作用都大于西部。（3）从不同维度看，不同维度的数字普惠金
融对居民消费的影响也不同。覆盖广度、使用深度都对居民消费水平和结构都有
显著正向影响，而数字化程度虽然对居民消费水平存在显著正向影响，但对消费
结构的影响却不显著。（4）总体看来，数字普惠金融对居民消费水平的影响大
于消费结构。也就是说，数字普惠金融能有效的促进居民消费水平提升，而对消
费结构的优化有待进一步加强。最后，根据以上结论，本文提出相应建议，期望
能有助于数字普惠金融与居民消费实现更好的发展。
关键词：数字普惠金融；居民消费；门槛效应；异质性
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数字普惠金融对居民消费的影响研究
ABSTRACT
In recent years, consumption has continuously provided kinetic energy for
China's economic development and contributed to economic growth. Affected by the
epidemic situation and changes in the economic situation at home and abroad, China's
economic development is in trouble. Under this background, the general secretary
proposed to speed up the construction of a new development strategic pattern of
"double circulation", which pointed out the direction for the sustainable development
of China's economy. Promoting consumption can not only deal with the negative
impact of the epidemic, but also accelerate the transformation and development of
China's economy, which is of great practical significance to improve residents' living
standards and increase their sense of well-being. At the same time, digital inclusive
finance can meet the needs of economic and social development and meet the service
needs of more people. Therefore, once it was born, it has developed rapidly in the
society. In general, digital inclusive finance can increase consumer demand.
Especially in the new development stage, digital Inclusive Finance is a more
convenient financial service. It can process and analyze a large number of complex
data with the help of the convenience of big data, accurately grasp the needs of
consumers in the market, and keenly grasp the new direction of market consumption,
which is particularly important to promote residents' consumption. Therefore, it is of
great significance to study the relationship between digital Inclusive Finance and
household consumption to promote steady economic growth at home and abroad and
smooth economic cycle.
In the research on the impact of digital Inclusive Finance on Residents'
consumption, the key contents are as follows: first, introduce the concepts of digital
Inclusive Finance and residents' consumption, and introduce the theoretical basis of
both; Secondly, sort out the path of digital Inclusive Finance affecting residents'
consumption; Then, using the method of combining pictures and texts, the paper
makes a visual analysis of the development status of digital Inclusive Finance and
resident consumption; Finally, the panel data of 31 provinces and cities from 2011 to
2019 are used to conduct empirical tests using benchmark model, intermediary effect
model and threshold model. The empirical results show that: (1) from a national
perspective, digital inclusive finance can significantly affect the level and structure of
residents' consumption, and its impact is transmitted through income as an
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