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论文作者（签名）：
2022年6月26日
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2022年6月26日

双支柱政策对影子银行监管有效性影响研究
摘要
当央行实施紧缩型的货币政策稳定物价时，通过信贷等传导渠道会抑制商业
银行的信贷规模，导致银行利润被大幅压缩，促使商业银行将资金投向收益更高
且不受监管的影子银行业务。在此背景下，影子银行规模迅速上升，导致系统性
风险积聚，造成我国经济金融市场的不稳定。影子银行在给资金需求者拓宽融资
渠道的同时，也暴露出了杠杆高、关联风险突出、结构复杂等问题，加剧了金融
市场的波动和金融体系的脆弱性。其次，影子银行发挥着“类银行”的功能，与
银行等金融机构有着密切的资金往来和业务关联，易造成金融机构之间的风险传
染。次贷危机的爆发让各国监管当局充分意识到宏观审慎的重要性，货币政策对
影子银行的监管还不够完善。在当前我国混业经营、分业监管的模式下，如何强
化双支柱调控框架，加强对金融体系的监管，抑制影子银行的过度扩张以防范化
解系统性风险，已经成为了亟需解决的问题。
本文共分为五个章节：第一章介绍了论文的研究背景和意义等内容，并梳理
概括了国内外相关文献；第二章明确了影子银行和双支柱政策的概念以及相关理
论基础；第三章首先梳理了影子银行的发展历程，接着从宏观、中观和微观三个
角度来分析影子银行的风险传染机制，接着分析双支柱政策之间的协调机制，最
后分析双支柱政策对影子银行监管有效性的影响；第四章运用固定效应模型从商
业银行微观个体层面实证研究双支柱政策对影子银行规模的影响，从而判断双支
柱政策对影子银行监管的有效性；第五章得出相关研究结论，并针对结论提出双
支柱政策背景下如何加强对影子银行监管的政策建议。
研究表明：无论是紧缩的数量型货币政策还是价格型货币政策，其单独实施
时均会导致影子银行规模的扩张，降低货币政策监管的有效性；其次，单独实施
紧缩型的宏观审慎政策时也会促进影子银行规模的扩张；最后，当两种政策协调
配合时，宏观审慎政策会强化因紧缩型的货币政策引起的影子银行规模的扩张，
反之也会强化宽松的货币政策对影子银行规模的抑制，提高双支柱政策监管的有
效性。因此，为有效监管影子银行，防范化解系统性风险，应建立风险隔离机制，
积极推动货币政策转型，健全双支柱政策调控框架，统筹兼顾双支柱政策的监管
力度和工具间的协调搭配，提高对影子银行监管的有效性。
关键词：双支柱；宏观审慎政策；影子银行
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双支柱政策对影子银行监管有效性影响研究
ABSTRACT
When the central bank implements a tight monetary policy to stabilize prices, the
credit scale of commercial banks will be restrained through credit and other
transmission channels, leading to a significant compression of bank profits and
prompting commercial banks to invest funds in the shadow banking business with
higher returns and unregulated. In this context, the scale of shadow banking increased
rapidly, leading to the accumulation of systemic risks, resulting in the instability of
China's economy and financial market. While expanding financing channels for
capital demanders, shadow banking also exposes problems such as high leverage,
prominent associated risks and complex structure, which have exacerbated the
volatility of financial markets and the fragility of the financial system. Secondly,
shadow banking plays the function of "bank-like" and has a close fund exchange and
business connection with banks and other financial institutions, which is easy to cause
risk contagion among financial institutions. The outbreak of the subprime mortgage
crisis made the regulatory authorities of various countries fully realize the importance
of macroprudential, and the supervision of the shadow banking by monetary policies
is not perfect enough. Under the current mode of mixed operation and separate
supervision in China, how to strengthen the two-pillar regulatory framework,
strengthen the supervision of the financial system, restrain the excessive expansion of
shadow banking to prevent and resolve systemic risks has become an urgent problem
to be solved.
This paper is divided into five chapters: Chapter one introduces the research
background and significance of the paper, and summarizes the relevant literature at
home and abroad; The second chapter clarifies the concept of shadow banking and
dual-pillar policy and the relevant theoretical basis; The third chapter first sorts out
the development process of shadow banking, then analyzes the risk contagion
mechanism of shadow banking from the macro, medium and micro perspectives, then
analyzes the coordination mechanism between the two-pillar policies, and finally
analyzes the impact of the two-pillar policies on the effectiveness of shadow banking
supervision; The fourth chapter uses fixed effect model to empirically study the
impact of two-pillar policies on shadow banking scale from the micro individual level
of commercial banks, so as to judge the effectiveness of two-pillar policies on shadow
banking supervision; The fifth chapter draws relevant research conclusions and puts
forward policy suggestions on how to strengthen the supervision of shadow banking
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