摘
要
随着我国社会经济的快速发展，科学信息技术的不断进步，人民生活水平的
不断提高以及医疗卫生事业的快速发展，中国人均预期寿命延长，老年人口逐年
增加，中国已经正式迈向老龄化社会。山东省是一个人口大省，老年人口规模大、
数量多，人口老龄化形势依旧不容乐观。相关研究显示，未来几年，山东省将有
大量人口进入老年人口行列，老龄化将呈现进一步深化的趋势。山东省人口老龄
化发展的速度和程度在全国处于前列，人口老龄化给山东省的社会经济和发展都
带来了一些困难和麻烦，社会养老工作也面临较大的挑战。
人口老龄化背景下，作为解决养老问题的养老保障体系存在不足，发挥商业
养老保险的补充完善作用对养老保障体系的建设具有重要意义。本篇论文通过借
鉴国内外学者的研究思路和方法，首先对山东省人口老龄化现状以及山东省商业
养老保险发展现状进行分析研究，得出商业养老保险在完善养老保障体系以及缓
解社会养老压力中的必要性以及重要性，然后选取可量化、可获得的山东省
2010-2019年总共 10年的面板数据，包括山东省各地市人均寿险保费收入、人均
GDP、城镇居民人均可支配收入、居民消费价格指数、教育支出、社会保障和就
业支出占财政支出比重以及城市化率等指标，对山东省商业养老保险需求的影响
因素进行了实证研究，并根据实证研究的结果以及山东省寿险发展的实际情况，
对山东省商业养老保险的发展以及社会养老保障体系的改革提出建设性的意见
和建议。
关键词：山东省人口老龄化面板数据商业养老保险
I

ABSTRACT
With the rapid development of social economy and medical health services, the
continuous progress of science and information technology,people's living standards
continue to improve, China's average life expectancy has been extended, the elderly
population has increased year by year, China officially began to move toward an
aging society. As a province with a large population, Shandong province has a large
elderly population, and the aging situation is still not optimistic. Relevant research
shows that there will be a large number of elderly people in Shandong province in the
next few years, and the aging trend will be further deepened. The speed and degree of
population aging development in Shandong province is in the forefront of the country,
and population aging have brought some trouble to the social economy in Shandong
province, social pension work is also facing greater challenges.
In the context of population aging,the old-age security system is inadequate in
solving the old-age problem,so making full use of the supplementary function of
commercial endowment insurance is of great significance to the construction of
endowment security system.This paper reference the research ideas and methods of
scholars at home and abroad.Firstly,It analyzes the current situation of population
aging and the development status of commercial endowment insurance in Shandong
Province,It concludes the necessity and importance of commercial endowment
insurance in improving endowment security system and alleviating social endowment
pressure.Then It also selects quantifiable and available panel data of Shandong
Province from 2010 to 2019 for a total of 10 years,including per capita life insurance
premium income,per capita GDP,Per capita disposable income of urban residents,
consumer price index,spending on education, social security and employment
accounted for the proportion of government spending,urbanization rate.This paper
makes an empirical study on the influencing factors of the demand for commercial
endowment insurance in Shandong Province, and according to the results of the
empirical study and the actual situation of the development of life insurance in
Shandong Province, puts forward constructive opinions and suggestions on the
development of commercial endowment insurance and the reform of social
endowment security system in Shandong Province.
KEY WORDS: Shandong Province; Ageing of population; Panel data;
Commercial endowment insurance
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