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大别山区普惠金融减贫的门槛效应分析_硕士毕业论文DOC

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摘要
2020年,我国已如期打赢脱贫攻坚战,彻底摆脱绝对贫困,创造了减贫史上的奇迹。
现阶段发展目标为巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果,在 5年过渡期内不发生规模性返贫。大别山
区作为国家曾经划定的 14个集中连片特困地区之一,涵盖鄂豫皖三省共 36个县市,具
有相对贫困地区共同的贫困特征,如自然禀赋脆弱性、民族宗教敏感性、因残因病致贫
率高、缺乏特色产业体系等,因此返贫率高,在巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果与乡村振兴有效
衔接的大背景下,仍然是一个值得关注的重要领域。在诸多减贫举措中,普惠金融的优
越性逐渐显现,于相对贫穷地区而言,普惠金融发展对于缓解贫困具有举足轻重的作用,
扎实完善普惠金融体系,是实现精准扶贫工作长足发展的必然之势。
本文旨在明确大别山区普惠金融发展水平对贫困减缓的门槛效应,通过对大别山区
普惠金融指标进行度量,对普惠金融扶贫的门槛效应进行估算,为相对贫困地区防止返
贫政策的实施提供借鉴意义。采用 2011-2020年大别山区 36个县域的面板数据,构建普
惠金融指标体系并对大别山区所有县域的普惠金融指数进行测度,为后文面板门槛模型
实证分析提供核心解释变量。构建以城乡收入差距为门槛变量的面板门槛模型,实证检
验大别山区普惠金融发展水平对贫困减缓的门槛效应。
通过实证分析得出以下结论:一是大别山区普惠金融扶贫效果具有明显的双重门槛
特征;二是当城乡收入差距跨越第一个门槛值或介于两门槛值之间时,普惠金融对贫困
减缓均具有正向积极作用;三是当城乡收入差距低于第二个门槛值时,普惠金融发展对
贫困减缓效果不再显著;四是控制变量中的农村人均收入、第一产业的发展情况以及第
二产业的发展情况也能促进减贫。最后本文根据理论研究和实证分析,为更好推进相对
贫困地区普惠金融的减贫效果,对我国与大别山具有相似贫困属性的农村地区防止返贫
工作提供政策建议:三省政府层面,应加强县域联动,平衡区域间发展;金融机构层面,
应下沉金融机构网点,创新金融服务;收入分配层面,应缩小城乡收入差距,防止规模
性返贫;非金融层面,应培育特色产业,注重三产融合发展。
关键词:
普惠金融;贫困减缓;门槛效应;城乡收入差距
I

Abstract
In 2020, China has won the battle against poverty as scheduled, completely getting rid of
absolute poverty and creating a miracle in the history of poverty reduction. The development goal
at this stage is to consolidate and expand the results of poverty eradication and not to return to
poverty on a large scale during the 5-year transition period. As one of the 14 concentrated
contiguous special hardship areas once delineated in the national poverty alleviation program,
covering a total of 36 counties and cities in the three provinces of Hubei, Henan and Anhui, the
Dabie Mountains have common poverty characteristics of relatively poor areas, such as
vulnerability of natural endowment, ethnic and religious sensitivity, high rate of poverty due to
disability and disease, and lack of characteristic industrial system, etc. Therefore, the high rate of
poverty return, in the context of consolidating and expanding the effective connection between
poverty eradication and rural revitalization remains an important area of concern. Among many
poverty reduction initiatives, the superiority of inclusive finance has gradually emerged. For
relatively poor areas, the development of inclusive finance plays a pivotal role in alleviating
poverty, and the solid improvement of the inclusive financial system is an inevitable trend to
achieve the long-term development of precise poverty alleviation.
The purpose of this paper is to clarify the impact of the level of inclusive financial
development on poverty alleviation in Dabie Mountain area, and to estimate the threshold effect
of inclusive financial poverty alleviation by measuring the indicators of inclusive finance in Dabie
Mountain area, so as to provide reference significance for the implementation of the policy of
preventing poverty return in relatively poor areas. The panel data of 36 counties in Dabie
Mountain area from 2011 to 2020 are used to construct the inclusive financial index system and
measure the inclusive financial index of all counties in Dabie Mountain area to provide the core
explanatory variables for the empirical analysis of the panel threshold model in the later section.
A panel threshold model measuring the urban-rural income gap as a threshold variable by the ratio
of urban residents' income to rural residents' income is constructed to empirically test the threshold
effect of the level of inclusive financial development on poverty alleviation in Dabie Mountain
area. The following conclusions are drawn from the empirical analysis: first, the poverty
alleviation effect of inclusive finance in Dabie mountainous area has obvious double threshold
II
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