October 2022 Short-Term Energy Outlook Forecast highlights Winter Fuels Outlook ? In our Winter Fuels Outlook, we forecast that average household expenditures for home heating fuels will increase this winter because of both higher expected fuel costs and higher energy consumption due to colder temperatures. Compared with last winter, in nominal terms, we forecast expenditures for homes that heat with natural gas will rise by 28%, heating oil by 27%, electricity by 10%, and propane 5% from October–March. Global liquid fuels ? The Brent crude oil spot price in our forecast averages $93 per barrel (b) in the fourth quarter of 2022 (4Q22) and $95/b in 2023. Potential petroleum supply disruptions and slower-than-expected crude oil production growth could lead to higher oil prices, while the possibility of slower-than-forecast economic growth may contribute to lower prices. ? OPEC+ announced a production cut of 2 million barrels per day (b/d) on October 5. OPEC crude oil production in our forecast falls from an average of 29.6 million barrels per day (b/d) in September to an average of 28.6 million b/d over 4Q22 and 1Q23. ? ? ? ? U.S. crude oil production in our forecast averages 11.7 million b/d in 2022 and 12.4 million b/d in 2023, which would surpass the record high set in 2019. We forecast that global consumption of liquid fuels will rise by an average of 2.1 million b/d for all of 2022 and by an average of 1.5 million b/d in 2023. U 。。。以下略