U.S. Energy Information Administrationeia.gov/aeo#AEO2018U.S. Energy Information Administration Annual Energy Outlook 2018 with projections to 2050 February 2018 U.S. Energy Information Administration Office of Energy Analysis U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 This publication is on the Web at: eia.gov/aeo This report was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agencywithin the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA's data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by anyother officer or employee of the United States Government. The views in this report therefore should not be construedas representing those of the Department of Energy or other federal agencies. 3 U.S. Energy Information Administrationeia.gov/aeo#AEO2018U.S. Energy Information Administration Overview/key takeaways Critical drivers and uncertainty Petroleum and other liquids Natural gas Electricity generation Transportation Buildings Industrial References 4 Table of contentsslide number 5 33 41 59 77 105 119 131 141 U.S. Energy Information Administrationeia.gov/aeo#AEO2018U.S. Energy Information Administration Overview/key takeaways EIA’sAnnual Energy Outlookprovides modeledprojections of domestic energy markets through2050, and it includes cases with differentassumptions regarding macroeconomic growth,world oil prices, technological progress, andenergy policies.Strong domestic productioncoupled with relatively flat energy demandallows the United States to become a netenergy exporter over the projection period inmost cases.In the Reference case, natural gasconsumption grows the most on an absolutebasis, and nonhydroelectricrenewables growthe most on a percentage basis.U.S. Energy Information Administrationeia.gov/aeo#AEO2018U.S. Energy Information Administration U.S. Energy Information Administrationeia.gov/aeo#AEO2018U.S. Energy Information Administration 8 Projections in theAnnual Energy Outlook 2018 (AEO2018) are not predictions of what will happen, butrather modeled projections of what may happen given certain assumptions and methodologies. The AEO is developed using the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), an integrated model thatcaptures interactions of economic changes and energy supply, demand, and prices. Energy market projections are subject to much uncertainty, as many of the events that shape energymarkets and future developments in technologies, demographics, and resources cannot be foreseen withcertainty. More information about the assumptions used in developing these projections will be available shortlyafter the release of the AEO. The AEO is published pursuant to the Department of Energy Organization Act of 1977, which requires theU.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Administrator to prepare annual reports on trends andprojections for energy use and supply.The Annual Energy Outlook provides long-term energy projectionsfor the United States。。。。。。