I 摘要 随着东盟自由贸易区的建立，作为区域性国际物流中心的N市，其经济地位也 日益提升。N市的商贸物流业近年来得到了长足的发展，主要体现为服务业规模不断 扩张、现代商品市场体系初步形成、物流设施加快建设、物流企业服务能力不断提高 等方面。然而，N市物流业起步较晚，缺少大型物流基地，现有的物流设施也由于功 能缺失，不能完全发挥出N市优越的区位优势，更不能满足N市日益增长的物流服 务需求。因此，N市计划建立集贸易物流金融一体化的大型商贸物流园区，形成“一 轴两带三中心”的基本格局。N市商贸物流园区建设项目的预计资金投入为20亿人 民币，工程浩大，在投资和建设方面必然会面临各种不确定性和风险因素。因此为了 园区项目的顺利进行，本文以N市商贸物流园区建设项目为研究对象开展一系列的 风险管理研究。 首先，本文结合物流园区的特点，以风险管理为理论指导，引出物流园区的风险 管理理论和评价方法；其次，对N市商贸物流园区从项目的建设背景、基本情况、 投资估算到运作模式进行了详细介绍；然后对N市商贸物流园区进行了风险识别， 分析出N市商贸物流园区的五类主要风险：环境风险、市场风险、技术风险、管理 风险和财务风险。在此基础上，结合专家打分法，运用层次分析法构建评价指标体系， 模糊综合评价法确定指标权重，通过评价模型进行风险的综合评价。评价结果是项目 整体风险处于良好等级，比较安全，验证了模型的合理性及可行性；最后，根据风险 评价结果提出了风险控制策略和建议。综合来看，本文为N市商贸物流园区建设项 目提供了对应的风险管理体系和风险管理措施，使园区能从容应对实施过程中的各类 风险，也为其他物流园区建设提供了意见参考和经验鉴戒。 关键词：商贸物流园区；风险管理；层次分析法；模糊综合评价法 Abstract III Abstract WiththeestablishmentoftheASEANFreeTradeArea,asaregionalinternational logisticscenter,theeconomicstatusofNcityisalsoincreasing.Inrecentyears,the logisticsindustryinNcityhasmadegreatprogress,whichismainlyreflectedinthe continuousexpansionofserviceindustry,thepreliminaryformationofmoderncommodity marketsystem,theacceleratedconstructionoflogisticsfacilities,andthecontinuous improvementofservicecapacityoflogisticsenterprises.However,thelogisticsindustryin Ncitystartedlateandlackslargelogisticsbases.Duetothelackoffunctions,theexisting logisticsfacilitiescannotfullygiveplaytothesuperiorlocationadvantagesofNcity,nor meetthegrowingdemandforlogisticsservicesinNcity.Therefore,Ncityplansto establishalargetradelogisticsparkintegratingtradelogisticsandfinance,formingabasic patternof"oneaxis,twobeltsandthreecenters".Thecapitalinvestmentofthe constructionprojectoftradeandlogisticsparkinNcityisexpectedtobe2billionRMB, whichisahugeprojectandwillinevitablyfacevariousuncertaintiesandriskfactorsin investmentandconstruction.Therefore,inordertocarryouttheparkprojectsmoothly,this papertakestheconstructionprojectoftradeandlogisticsparkinNcityastheresearch objecttocarryoutaseriesofriskmanagementstudies. Firstly,thispapercombinesthecharacteristicsoflogisticsparkandtakesrisk managementasthetheoreticalguidancetointroducetheriskmanagementtheoryand evaluationmethodoflogisticspark.Secondly,theconstructionbackground,basicsituation, investmentestimationandoperationmodeofthetradeandlogisticsparkinNcityare introducedindetail.Then,riskidentificationiscarriedoutforthetradeandlogisticspark inNcity,andfivemainrisksareanalyzed:environmentalrisk,marketrisk,technicalrisk, managementriskandfinancialrisk.Onthisbasis,combinedwiththeexpertscoring method,theanalytichierarchyprocess(AHP)wasusedtoconstructtheevaluationindex system,theindexweightwasdeterminedbythefuzzycomprehensiveevaluationmethod, andtheriskwascomprehensivelyevaluatedbytheevaluationmodel.Theevaluation resultsshowthattheoverallriskoftheprojectisatagoodlevelandrelativelysafe,which verifiestherationalityandfeasibilityofthemodel.Finally,thecorrespondingriskcontrol strategyisproposedaccordingtotheriskassessmentresults.Insummary,thispaper providesthecorrespondingriskmanagementsystemandriskmanagementmeasuresfor 重庆理工大学硕士学位论文 IV theconstructionprojectofthetradeandlogisticsparkinNcity,enablingtheparkto calmlydealwithvariousrisksintheimplementationprocess,andprovidingadviceand experiencefortheconstructionofotherlogisticsparks. Keywords: Tradelogisticspark;Riskmanagement;Analytichierarchyprocess;Fuzzy comprehensiveevaluation 目录 V 目录 摘要 ................................................................................................................... I Abstract ........................................................................................................ III 1绪论 ............................................................................................................... 1 1.1研究背景、目的与意义 ........................................................................................ 1 1.1.1研究背景..........................................................................................................................1 1.1.2研究目的..........................................................................................................................1 1.1.3研究意义........................................................................................................................2 1.2国内外研究综述 .................................................................................................... 2 1.2.1风险管理的国内外研究综述..........................................................................................2 1.2.2物流园区建设项目风险管理的国内外研究综述.........................................................6 1.2.3国内外研究小结综述......................................................................................................8 1.3研究内容、方法与技术路线 .............................................................................. 9 1.3.1研究内容........................................................................................................................9 1.3.2研究方法........................................................................................................................9 1.3.3技术路线......................................................................................................................10 2项目风险管理相关理论与方法 ................................................................ 11 2.1项目风险管理理论 ............................................................................................ 11 2.1.1项目风险管理概述......................................................................................................11 2.1.2项目风险管理的过程..................................................................................................12 2.2物流园区项目风险管理理论 ............................................................................ 14 2.2.1物流园区概述..............................................................................................................14 2.2.2物流园区项目风险管理的内容..................................................................................15 2.2.3物流园区项目风险识别..............................................................................................17 2.3物流园区项目风险管理评价方法 .................................................................... 19 2.3.1层次分析法..................................................................................................................19 2.3.2模糊综合评价法..........................................................................................................22 2.3.3风险评价方法的选择..................................................................................................23 3N市商贸物流园区建设项目概况介绍 .................................................... 25 3.1园区项目建设背景 ............................................................................................ 25 重庆理工大学硕士学位论文 VI 3.1.1N市经济状况...............................................................................................................25 3.1.2项目建设背景..............................................................................................................25 3.2园区项目基本情况 ............................................................................................ 25 3.2.1项